Economic trends and being trendy: The influence of consumer confidence on retail fashion sales

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 103-111

  Allenby, Greg M ^a   Jen, Lichung ^a   Leone, Robert P ^a  

^a OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Autocorrelation; Gibbs sampling; Hierarchical Bayes

Indexed keywords

EID: 0030527571     PISSN: 07350015     EISSN: 15372707     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07350015.1996.10524633     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Adams, F. G. (1964), “Consumer Attitudes, Buying Plans and Purchases of Durable Goods: A Principle Components Time Series Approach,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 46, 347-355.
2. Adams, F. G. (1965), “Prediction With Consumer Attitudes: The Time Series-Cross-Section Paradox,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 47, 367-378.
3. Arcelus, F. J., and Srinivasan, G. (1987), “Inventory Policies Under Various Optimizing Criteria and Variable Markup Rates,” Management Science, 33, 756-762.
4. Armstrong, S. J., and Collopy, F. (1992), “Error Measures for Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons,” International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 69-80.
5. Banks, H. (1993), “What’s Ahead for Business,” Forbes, 152, 39.
6. Blattberg, R. C., and George, E. I. (1991), “Shrinkage Estimation of Price and Promotional Elasticities: Seemingly Unrelated Equations,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 86, 304-315.
7. Blattberg, R. C., and Hoch, S. J. (1990), “Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager,” Management Science, 36, 887-899.
8. Breuss, F., and Wuger, M. (1986), “Consumer Sentiments as an Indicator for Consumption Behavior,” in Business Cycle Surveys in the Assessment of Economic Activity, eds. K. H. Oppenlander and G. Poser, Aldershot, U.K.: Gower, pp. 320-351.
9. Cooper, J. C., and Madigan, K. (1993), “All That Corporate Cutting is Giving Consumers the Creeps,” Business Week, 3331, 21-22.
10. Cutler, B. (1992), “The Feel-Good Index,” American Demographics, 20, 56-60.
11. Fomby, T. B., Hill, R. C., and Johnson, S. R. (1984), Advanced Econometric Methods, New York: Springer-Verlag.
12. Gelfand, A. E., and Smith, A. F. M. (1990), “Sampling-Based Approaches to Calculating Marginal Densities,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 398-409.
13. Granger, C. (1980), Forecasting in Business and Economics, New York: Academic Press.
14. Hadady, R. E. (1991), “Using Consumer Confidence to Forecast the Economy,” Futures: The Magazine of Commodities & Options, 20, 18b, 18d.
15. Hildebrand, G. (1992), Business Cycle Indicators and Measures, Chicago: Probus.
16. Jeuland, A. P., and Dolan, R. J. (1982), “An Aspect of New Product Planning: Dynamic Pricing,” TIMS Studies in the Management Sciences, 18, 1-21.
17. Juster, F. T. (1964), Anticipation and Purchases: An Analysis of Consumer Behavior, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
18. Juster, F. T., and Wächter, P. (1972), “Anticipatory and Objective Models of Durable Goods Demand,” American Economic Review, 62, 564-579.
19. Kamakura, W., and Gessner, G. (1986), “Consumer Sentiment and Buying Intentions Revisited: A Comparison of Predictive Usefulness,” Journal of Economic Psychology, 1, 197-220.
20. Katona, G. (1951), Psychological Analysis of Economic Behavior, New York: McGraw-Hill.
21. Katona, G. (1979), “Consumer Expectations as a Guide to the Economy,” Public Opinion Quarterly, Jan./Feb., 15-19.
22. Kopp, R. J., Eng, R. J., and Tigert, D. J. (1989), “A Competitive Structure and Segmentation Analysis of the Chicago Fashion Market,” Journal of Retailing, 65, 496-515.
23. Kumar, V., and Leone, R. P. (in press), “Aggregate and Disaggregate Sector Forecasting Using Consumer Confidence Measures,” International Journal of Forecasting, 11.
24. Leeper, E. M. (1992), “Consumer Attitudes: King for a Day,” Economic Review, 11, 1-15.
25. Morris, C. (1983), “Parametric Empirical Bayes Inference: Theory and Applications,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, 47-65.
26. Mueller, E. (1963), “Ten Years of Consumer Attitude Surveys: Their Forecasting Record,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 59, 899-917.
27. Nasar, S. (1993), “Consumer Confidence Off Sharply,” The Wall Street Journal, March 31, Cl.
28. Niemira, M. (1991), “Using Composite Leading Indicators of Consumption to Forecast Sales and to Signal Turning Points in the Stock Market,” in Leading Economic Indicators, eds. K. Lahiri and G. Moore, Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1, 3-4.
29. Packard, S., and Raine, A. (1979), Consumer Behavior and Fashion Marketing, Dubuque, IA: W. C. Brown.
30. Parker, P. (1992), “Pricing Strategies in Markets With Dynamic Elasticities,” Marketing Letters, 3, 227-237.
31. Perna, R. (1987), Fashion Forecasting: A Mystery or a Method? New York: Fairchild.
32. Silver, E. A., and Peterson, R. (1985), Decision Systems for Inventory Management and Production Planning (2nd ed.), New York: John Wiley.
33. Simon, H. (1979), “Dynamics of Price Elasticity and Brand Life Cycles: An Empirical Study,” Journal of Marketing Research, 16, 439-452.
34. Spiers, J. (1993), “Don’t Bet the Store on Consumers’ New Optimism,” Fortune, 127, 19-22.
35. Survey of Current Business (1994), Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.
36. Throop, A. W. (1992), “Consumer Sentiment: Its Causes and Effects,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review, 1, 35-59.
37. Tobin, J. (1959), “On the Predictive Value of Consumer Intentions and Attitudes,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 41, 1-11.
38. Zellner, A. (1962), “An Efficient Method of Estimating Seemingly Unrelated Regressions and Tests for Aggregation Bias,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 57, 348-368.