Determinants of the 1991-1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy

Japan and the World Economy

Volumn 8, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 363-399

  Brunner, Allan D ^a   Kamin, Steven B ^a  

^a Bd of Governors of the Fed R S   (United States)

Author keywords

Economic fluctuations; Economic recession; Japan; Structural model

Indexed keywords

EID: 0030496652     PISSN: 09221425     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/0922-1425(96)00208-3     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Blanchard, O., 1993, Consumption and the recession of 1990-1991, American Economic Review: AEA Papers and Proceedings 83,270-274.
2. Brunner, A.D. and S.B. Kamin, 1995, Bank lending and economic activity in Japan: Did 'Financial Factors' contribute to the recent downturn?, Internation Finance Discussion Papers, # 513, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.
3. Campbell, J.Y. and Y. Hamao, 1992, Predictable stock returns in the United States and Japan: A study of long-term capital markets, Journal of Finance 47, 43-69.
4. Davidson, J.E.H., D.F. Hendry, F. Srba and S. Yeo, 1978, Econometric modelling of the aggregate time series relation between consumption and income in the UK, Economic Journal 88, 661-692.
5. Dekle, R., 1994, Market value estimates of Japanese saving and comparisons with the US: Can the capital gains to land be included in saving?, Japan and the World Economy 6, 27-44.
6. Doan, T.R. Litterman and C. Sims, 1984, Forecasting and conditional projections using realistic prior distributions, Econometric Reviews 3, 1-100.
7. Economic Planning Agency, 1991a, EPA world economic model: Model structure, Discussion Paper No. 19, Tokyo.
8. Economic Planning Agency, 1991b, Economic survey of Japan 1990-1991: Conditions for long run expansion and Japan's international role, Tokyo.
9. Economic Planning Agency, 1993, Economic survey of Japan 1992-1993: What we learned from the bubble and our challenge to a new development, Tokyo.
10. French, K. R. and J. R. Poterba, 1991, Were Japanese stock prices too high?, Journal of Financial Economics 29, 337-363.
11. Fries, S.M., 1993, Japanese banks and the asset price 'Bubble', IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, WP/93/85.
12. Hall, R.E., 1978, Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: Theory and evidence, Journal of Political Economy 86, 971-987.
13. Hall, R.E., 1993, Macro theory and the recession of 1990-1991, American Economic Review: AEA Papers and Proceedings 83, 275-279.
14. Hansen, G.D. and E.C. Prescott, 1993, Did technology shocks cause the 1990-1991 recession?, American Economic Review: AEA Papers and Proceedings 83, 280-286.
15. Hargraves, M., G. J. Schinasi and S.R. Weisbrod, 1993, Asset price inflation in the 1980s: A flow of funds perspective, IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, WP/937.
16. Hoshi, T. and A.K. Kashyup, 1990, Evidence on q and investment for Japanese firms, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 4, 371-400.
17. Hutchison, M.M., 1995, Asset price fluctuations in Japan: What role for monetary policy?, Bank of Japan Monetary and Financial Studies 12, 61-83.
18. Ito, T., 1992, The Japanese Economy (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
19. Ito, T., 1994, Burst bubble in Japan, Working Paper, Hitotsubashi University.
20. Japan Economic Research Institute, Ltd., 1993, The medium-term outlook for the Japanese economy: FY1994-FY1998, Japanese Research Quarterly, Winter 3. 3-44.
21. Johansen, S. and K. Juselius, 1990, Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegralion - with Applications to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 52, 169-210.
22. Kim, S.B. and R. Moreno, 1994, Stock prices and bank lending behavior in Japan, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, I:31-42.
23. Litterman, R., 1981, A Bayesian procedure for forecasting with vector autoregressions, Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
24. Mieno, Y., 1993, Current monetary and economic conditions in Japan, Special Paper No. 231, Bank of Japan, Tokyo.
25. Molana, H., 1991, The time series consumption function: Error correction, random walk, and the steady-state. Economic Journal 101, 382-403.
26. Noguchi, Y., 1993, Asset price inflation and economic policies, Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics 34, 111-146.
27. OECD, 1993, OECD Economic Surveys 1992-1993: Japan, Paris.
28. Ogawa, K. and S. Kitasaka, 1993, Asset market and business fluctuations in Japan, Discussion Paper No. 58, Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo.
29. Okina, K. and C. Sakuraba, 1993, Balance sheet adjustments and interest rate policy in Japan, Working Paper, Bank of Japan.
30. Osterwald-Lenum, M., 1992, A note with quantiles of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test statistics, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 54, 461-472.
31. Schinasi, G.J. and M. Margraves, 1992, Asset price deflation, balance sheet adjustment, and financial fragility, World Economic Outlook (International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC) 57-68.
32. Shintani, M., 1994, Cointegration and tests of the permanent income hypothesis with international comparisons. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 8, 144-172.
33. Stone, D. and W.T. Ziembra, 1993, Land and stock prices in Japan, Journal of Economic Perspectives 7, 149-165.
34. Takeda, M. and P. Turner, 1992, The liberalization of Japan's financial markets: Some major themes, BIS Economic Papers, Bank for International Settlements, Basle Switzerland, 34.
35. West, K.D., 1992, Sources of cycles in Japan, 1975-1987, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 6, 71-98.