Electoral upset in Israel

Middle East Policy

Volumn 4, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 116-136

  Denoeux, Guilain ^a   Fox, Jonathan ^b  

^a Health Services and Department of Biology

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0030494693     PISSN: 10611924     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.1996.tb00242.x     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. 1 See Leon T. Hadar, "The 1992 Electoral Earth-quake and the Fall of the 'Second Israeli Republic'," Middle East Journal, vol. 46, no. 4 (Autumn 1992), pp. 594-616.
2. Sephardim refers to Jews of North African and Middle Eastern origins. The overwhelming majority of Sephardic Jews (or their forefathers) moved to Israel only after the state was created in 1948.
3. Labor leaders Levi Eshkol and Golda Meir, who were prime ministers in the late 1960s and early 1970s, were relatively uninspiring figures - particularly when compared with David Ben-Gurion, whose historical legitimacy as "Israel's founding father" had greatly contributed to Labor's earlier success.
4. Rabin had been prime minister from 1974 until 1977, when the disclosure of an illegal foreign currency account held by his wife led to his resignation.
5. Particularly damaging was the conflict between then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir and his foreign minister David Levy, the highest-ranking Sephardic Jew in the Likud and the cabinet.
6. There are no geographically based districts in Israel.
7. For instance, a party receiving 5 percent of the national vote would be entitled to six seats. However, parties would not gain representation in the Knesset unless they passed a minimum percentage of the total vote. This threshold was set at 1 percent through the 1988 elections, but was raised to 1.5 percent before the 1992 elections.
8. The new law allows for more than two individuals to run for prime minister. A candidate must be nominated by a party or combination of parties with a minimum of ten seats in the outgoing Knesset, or by the signatures of at least 50,000 eligible voters. To win the race in the first ballot, a candidate must receive over 50 percent of the vote, an outcome which becomes much less likely in a field of three or more. If this ballot does not yield a winner, runoff elections are held between the top two vote recipients "on the first Tuesday at the end of two weeks from the day on which the resuits of the first election were published." (See Basic Law: The Government, State of Israel, Goverment Press Office, 1996.)
9. The label "parlidential system" was used by Professor Uriel Reichmann in a briefing at the Government Press Office in Jerusalem on May 13, 1996.
10. If the prime minister fails to put together a coalition within 45 days of the publication of the final results of the elections, new elections for both the prime minister and the Knesset must be held within 60 days.
11. Meretz held its primary on March 24, Labor on March 25, and Likud on March 26, 1996.
12. Israel Baaliya means "Israel on the Rise," also a play on aliyah, immigration,
13. Meretz's main power base is among peace activists and militantly secular individuals. The party appeals predominantly to younger people, professionals and intellectuals who are attracted to the central components of its message: the active pursuit of peace with the Palestinians and neighboring Arab countries, civil rights, separation of religion and state, and "post-Zionist" quality-of-life issues such as the environment. It tends to do particularly well in Tel Aviv and its surroundings.
14. One Meretz flier reminded its audience that "...only a strong Meretz can stand up to the religious parties. No other party even tries to do so....In the struggle against religious coercion [in the thirteenth Knesset], Meretz stood alone, without any support from the leadership of the Labor party."
15. See Michael Yudelman, "Meretz outraged at alleged Peres deal with religious parties," The Jerusalem Post, May 20, 1996.
16. Tzomet (an acronym which means "crossroads" in Hebrew was founded in 1984 by General Rafael Eitan, who had been chief of staff during the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. While it adopts a hard-line stance on security, it is the right's strongest advocate of a separation of religion and state. Indeed, on religious issues, it often finds itself on the same side of the debate as the dovish Meretz. While the party is usually seen as being to the right of Likud, its roots are in the Labor and Kibbutz movements. Unlike the ideological and religious right, Tzomet's position toward peace negotiations is almost entirely driven by pragmatic security concerns. The party is dominated by the personality of Eitan, whose personal popularity accounts for much of its success. In 1992, Tzomet received 8 votes.
17. If a party is expected to receive 25 seats, then the first 25 slots on its list are considered "safe."
18. Most polls at the time showed Gesher receiving a maximum of three seats.
19. Previously at least, the blackmail would only take place after the election, when a ruling coalition needed to be formed. Now it can begin as soon as the campaign is launched.
20. Hebrew subtitles translated Arafat's words as follows: "Brothers, this is the timetable upon which we have agreed with the Israeli government, and it will happen as we have agreed: first was Gaza, then Jenin, then Tulkarm [the crowd by then is cheering after Arafat utters the name of each city], then Nablus, then Kalkilya, then Bethlehem, then Ramallah, then Hebron, and then [at that point the crowd is in frenzy] Holy Jerusalem."
21. These were Netanyahu's exact words at the Likud's campaign kick-off rally on April 29.
22. In mid-May, a yeshiva student was shot outside the West Bank settlement of Beit El, near Ramallah. His assailants were able to escape to areas under Palestinian control. The Likud seized upon the incident to underscore its claim that the West Bank and Gaza would remain safe havens for terrorists until the IDF is given full freedom of pursuit.
23. In a recent interview, Moledet's leader stated "The secular and religious in Moledet learn from each other. We are all one family, united under one flag. At Moledet, secular and religious people feel equally at home." Hakol Magazine, April 1996, p. 17.
24. "We have already stated that all bets would be off. Negotiations would immediately be suspended. Everything is reversible. Everything is reversible....The so-called Palestinian Police Force/Terrorists will be disarmed. If they refuse to do so, I know how to deploy tanks, airforce and artillery. These [Oslo] treaties were rendered void before they were even written." Ze'evy, quoted in Hakol Magazine, April 1996, p. 16.
25. Certain segments of the NRP's platform even looked as if they had been pulled out of Likud's. For instance, the platform refers to the need to allow the IDF to operate anywhere necessary, including in the areas currently under Palestinian self-rule. It also calls for granting "Arabs in Judea, Samaria and Gaza" autonomy over municipal, social and cultural affairs, while leaving security and foreign policy issues in the hands of the Israeli government.
26. There were, however, some dissenting voices within the NRP leadership. For instance, Rafael Ben Natan, a member of the party's moderate wing, warned his colleagues against declaring a preferred candidate for prime minister, on the ground that it would preclude the party from entering a Labor coalition.
27. As Rabbi Shalom Gold stated during the previously mentioned debate at the Laromme Hotel on May 21: "A vote for Netanyahu is a vote for a return to national sanity. A vote for Mafdal is a vote for a return to national sanity."
28. 28 On the difference between the Hasidic and Lithuanian factions of the haredi community, see for instance Avishai Margalit, "Israel: The Rise of the Ultra-Orthodox," in A Middle East Reader (New York: Rea S. Hederman, 1991), pp. 119-121.
29. A member of Shas was also appointed deputy minister in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, historically a stronghold of the NRP.
30. In the 1992 election, Labor had captured about 20 percent of the Arab vote, and Meretz almost 10 percent Three "Arab parties" had received another 48 percent of the ballots cast by Israeli Arabs.
31. Prior to 1996, Labor had frequently relied upon the support of Arab parties in the Knesset. (This was particularly true after Shas left the ruling coalition in 1994.) However, it had always been politically unfeasible for Labor to invite an Arab party to join the cabinet Arab parties thus had little choice but to prop up Labor governments which seemed bent on keeping their distance from them, and from which they could not exact significant concessions on matters of policy and state funding for Arab towns. This relative power-lessness of Arab parties stands in sharp contrast to the small ultra-orthodox parties' well-known ability to demand a heavy price for their support.
32. Arabs constitute a significantly lower proportion of the electorate than they do of the entire Israeli population because they are also younger than the national average.
33. 33 For a breakdown of the 1992 Arab vote, see Majid al-Haj, "The Political Behavior of the Arabs in Israel in the 1992 Elections: Integration versus Segregation," in Asher Arian and Michal Shamir, The Elections in Israel, 1992 (Albany: State University of New York Press, 1995), p. 151.
34. Until it dropped from the race a week before the election, the Arab Movement for Change was another contender for Arab votes. Headed by Ahmad Tibi, an adviser to Arafat, the party pulled out when it became clear that it woula not pass the 1.5 percent Knesset threshold. Observers believe that the votes which would have gone to Tibi eventually went to Labor and Meretz.
35. The label of "Arab party" is a misnomer for Hadash. Although its electorate is overwhelmingly Arab, Hadash includes both Jews and Arabs.
36. See Majid al-Haj, op.cit., p. 151.
37. Abna al-balad had always refused to take part in Israeli elections, on the ground that participation would amount to recognizing the legitimacy of the Jewish state. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) consists primarily of young intellectuals who had split from Hadash in the early 1990s to protest the outmoded and dogmatic policies advocated by the leadership, and to display their discontent with the lack of internal democracy within the party. The NDA had not taken part in the 1992 elections. Its decision to participate in these elections reflects two trends: a growing acceptance of Israel's legitimacy among formerly rejectionist Israeli Arab groups, and a realization that the party has more to gain from joining in the political process than from boycotting it.
38. The ADP was created in 1988 by Darawshe, a former Arab Labor MK who resigned from his party to protest its handling of the intifada. In the 1992 elections, the ADP had received 15.2 percent of the Arab vote and two seats.
39. The Islamic movement now controls several Arab municipalities, including Umm al-Fahm, Israel's second-largest Arab town.
40. See Steve Rodan and Jacob DallaL, "The Arab non-alliance," The Jerusalem Post, May 10, 1996, p. 9.
41. There was within the Islamic movement an extremely strong opposition to any alliance with Tibi, in part because of his close association with Arafat, and in part because of his ties with segments of the Israeli establishment. (Indeed, several voices in the Israeli Arab community have long suggested that Tibi is an Israeli agent). It was shortly after its arrangement with the Islamic movement fell apart that Tibi's party's candidacy foundered.
42. By contrast, in 1992, Russian immigrants opposed to territorial compromise yet bitter at Likud for mismanaging their absorption were faced with three unattractive options: to lodge a protest vote against Likud by voting Labor (but at the expense of their security concerns); to swallow their pride and support Likud for the sake of defending their views on security; or to vote for one of the three Russian parties, "but at the risk of wasting their ballots should these parties fail to gain representation.
43. See Peter Hirschberg, "Won't Be Fooled Again," The Jerusalem Report, April 18, 1996, pp. 16-17.
44. See Leslie Susser, "Netanyahu's Israel," The Jerusalem Report, June 27, 1996, p. 17.
45. The Third Way was the second major Israeli effort to create a centrist party. The first was the Democratic Movement for Change (DMC), founded prior to the 1977 elections. Although the DMC received fifteen votes in 1977, it had disappeared by the early 1980s.
46. On all four previous occasions when Peres had headed Labor s list into an election (1977, 1981, 1984 and 1988), the party had suffered electoral defeat. Peres's two short terms as prime minister (1984-1986 and November 1995-June 1996) came about not because he had won an election, but as a result of the formation of a national unity government in 1984, and Rabin's assassination in November 1995.
47. For two continuous weeks, media coverage of events in Lebanon relegated the electoral campaign to the back burner. Many analysts believed that this was working to Labor's advantage, since it prevented Netanyahu and the Likud from actively criticizing the government and publicizing their message.
48. Over the past few years, the Orient House has served as an arena for numerous meetings between Palestinian officials and foreign dignitaries, particularly those from the European Community. Many Israeli observers, especially on the right, have argued that such a situation has turned the Orient House into a quasi Foreign Ministry for the Palestinian Authority. They see this as a violation of the Oslo Agreement, which does not include Jerusalem in the Palestinian autonomy zone, and states that foreign affairs are to remain in Israeli hands during the negotiating period.
49. Foreign companies with investments in Israel as well as Israeli business people eager to gain access to markets in the Middle East and beyond were believed to have a clear material interest in a Peres-Labor victory.
50. In November 1995, Israel's High Court of Justice had declared invalid government regulations which forbade the Interior Ministry from registering as Jews those converted in Israel by non-Orthodox movements. Although the ruling had refrained from explicitly recognizing reform and conservative conversions, it had given a de facto recognition to them.
51. An observer summarizes the typical haredi view of the difference between Labor and Likud in the following terms: "The dominant feeling among haredim is not that Netanyahu, or for that matter Ariel Sharon and Dan Meridor, will one day wake up, see the light, and observe the commandments, but rather that they at least have an appreciation of those who do." Herb Keinon, The Jerusalem Post, May 28, 1996, p. 2.
52. When at 10 p.m. on election day the initial exit polls were broadcast on both Israeli TV channels, they gave the incumbent Peres a slim lead. This led to premature celebrations at Labor election day headquarters. By contrast, the mood at the Likud party elections headquarters was one of gloom. In the middle of the night, however, final exit polls projections reversed the candidates' fortunes, giving Netanyahu an edge, which was confirmed by the official election results.
53. 1,501,023 to 1,471,566.
54. Ninety-five percent of Israeli Arabs who showed up at the polls voted for Peres (although about 21,000 cast blank ballots in the race for prime minister.) Furthermore, turnout among Israeli Arabs was higher than usual. It reached 77.5 percent, or 8 percent more than in 1992.
55. Steven Klein, "And the Winner is..." The Jerusalem Post, in Jerusalem insert. May 31, 1996, p. 7.
56. The role of the debate in possibly tipping the election in Netanyahu's favor was seized upon by observers as yet one more indication of the "Americanization" of Israeli elections.
57. The strong performance of Hadash should be emphasized. It reflects several factors: the impact of the new electoral law, the party's well-oiled electoral machine, the high caliber of several of its leaders, and its outspoken condemnation of Operation Grapes of Wrath. The United Arab List also did well, although some of its supporters expressed disappointment that the Islamic movement had not Drought to the polls as many new voters as they had noped for.
58. The only two small parties which did not increase their representation were United Torah Judaism, which maintained its 1992 strength at four seats, and the far-right Moledet, which went from three to two seats.
59. It remains to be seen whether the centrist bloc will survive, or whether it will disintegrate as was the case with the Democratic Movement for Change (DMC) in the late 1970s.
60. Yisrael Baaliya received two important ministries: Industry and Trade (Natan Sharansky) and Absorption (Yuli Edelstein).
61. Avigdor Kahalani was appointed minister of Internal Security.
62. The NRP also hold Transport and Energy, and Shas Labor and Social Affairs.
63. Heading the NSC will be longtime Defense Ministry Director-General David Ivry, a former Air Force commander. Bank of Israel Governor Jacob Frenkel will lead the CEA.
64. The fact that Dan Meridor received the Finance portfolio also shows the limits of Netanyahu's ability to sidetrack senior Likud figures. The new prime minister was known to favor giving that position to Jacob Frenkel, an outside professional.