The future as arbiter of theoretical controversies: Predictions, explanations and the end of the Cold War

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 26, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 441-470

  Ray, James Lee ^a   Russett, Bruce ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0030488225     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s0007123400007560     Document Type: Article

References (184)

1. John Lewis Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War', International Security, 17 (1992/93), 5-58, at p. 10.
2. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory,' p. 18. Gaddis's sharpest criticisms are directed at North Americans pursuing a social scientific research agenda; we therefore respond primarily by reference to that literature.
3. Yosef Lapid, 'The Third Debate: On the Prospects of International Theory in a Post-Positivist Era', International Studies Quarterly, 33 (1989), 235-54, at p. 236.
4. Richard K. Ashley and R. B. J. Walker, eds, 'Speaking the Language of Exile: Dissidence in International Studies', Special Issue of International Studies Quarterly, 34 (1990), 259-416.
5. Donald J. Puchala, 'Woe to the Orphans of the Scientific Revolution', in Robert Rothstein, ed, The Evolution of Theory in International Relations (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1991), p. 79 (emphasis added). Puchala here, like Gaddis, condemns not just contemporary theories in the field of international politics, but also, as the title clearly implies, 'scientific' approaches to that subject matter.
6. David Easton, 'The New Revolution in Political Science', American Political Science Review, 63 (1969), 1051-61.
7. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', p. 6.
8. Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations (New York: Knopf, 1948), pp. 4-5.
9. Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes (New York: Bantam, 1988), p. 9. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', cites both Hawking and Morgenthau in support of this view.
10. Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time: From the Big Bang to Black Holes (New York: Bantam, 1988), p. 9. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', cites both Hawking and Morgenthau in support of this view.
11. Robert O. Keohane, 'Theory of World Politics: Structural Realism and Beyond', in Ada Finifter, ed., Political Science: The State of the Discipline (Washington, DC: American Political Science Association, 1983).
12. J. David Singer, 'The Level-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations', World Politics, 14 (1961), 77-92.
13. Martin Hollis and Steve Smith, Explaining and Understanding International Relations (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 54-6 (emphasis added). Hollis and Smith here are reporting the view of W. V. Quine, 'Two Dogmas of Empiricism', in W. V. Quine, ed., From a Logical Point of View (New York: Random House, 1961).
14. Martin Hollis and Steve Smith, Explaining and Understanding International Relations (New York: Oxford University Press, 1990), pp. 54-6 (emphasis added). Hollis and Smith here are reporting the view of W. V. Quine, 'Two Dogmas of Empiricism', in W. V. Quine, ed., From a Logical Point of View (New York: Random House, 1961).
15. Pauline Marie Rosenau, Post-Modernism and the Social Sciences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992), p. 212.
16. John Vasquez, 'The Promises and Pitfalls of Post-Modernist Approaches to International Politics' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, DC, 30 March 1994). Some of the works cited by Vasquez are: Peter L. Berger and Thomas Luckman, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Doubleday, 1966); Michael Foucault, The Archaelogy of Knowledge (New York: Pantheon, 1972); Jean-Françoise Lyotard, Post-Modernism and the Social Sciences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992).
17. John Vasquez, 'The Promises and Pitfalls of Post-Modernist Approaches to International Politics' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, DC, 30 March 1994). Some of the works cited by Vasquez are: Peter L. Berger and Thomas Luckman, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Doubleday, 1966); Michael Foucault, The Archaelogy of Knowledge (New York: Pantheon, 1972); Jean-Françoise Lyotard, Post-Modernism and the Social Sciences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992).
18. John Vasquez, 'The Promises and Pitfalls of Post-Modernist Approaches to International Politics' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, DC, 30 March 1994). Some of the works cited by Vasquez are: Peter L. Berger and Thomas Luckman, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Doubleday, 1966); Michael Foucault, The Archaelogy of Knowledge (New York: Pantheon, 1972); Jean-Françoise Lyotard, Post-Modernism and the Social Sciences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992).
19. John Vasquez, 'The Promises and Pitfalls of Post-Modernist Approaches to International Politics' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington, DC, 30 March 1994). Some of the works cited by Vasquez are: Peter L. Berger and Thomas Luckman, The Social Construction of Reality (New York: Doubleday, 1966); Michael Foucault, The Archaelogy of Knowledge (New York: Pantheon, 1972); Jean-Françoise Lyotard, Post-Modernism and the Social Sciences (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992).
20. Vasquez, 'The Promises and Pitfalls', p. 4.
21. Richard K. Ashley, 'Living on Borderlines: Man, Poststructuralism, and War', in James Der Derian and Michael Shapiro, eds, International/Intertextual Relations: Postmodern Readings in World Politics (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1989), p. 280.
22. A. F. K. Organski and Samuel Eldersveld, 'Modelling the EC: Conclusion', in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Frans Stokman, eds, European Community Decision Making: Models, Applications and Comparisons (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994). Such a view has been expressed recently, for example, by J. David Singer, 'Prediction Versus Explanation as Standards of Scientific Progress' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York City, September 1994); James N. Rosenau, 'Signals, Signposts and Symptoms: Anticipating and Explaining Major Historical Breakpoints' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, September 1994).
23. A. F. K. Organski and Samuel Eldersveld, 'Modelling the EC: Conclusion', in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Frans Stokman, eds, European Community Decision Making: Models, Applications and Comparisons (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994). Such a view has been expressed recently, for example, by J. David Singer, 'Prediction Versus Explanation as Standards of Scientific Progress' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York City, September 1994); James N. Rosenau, 'Signals, Signposts and Symptoms: Anticipating and Explaining Major Historical Breakpoints' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, September 1994).
24. A. F. K. Organski and Samuel Eldersveld, 'Modelling the EC: Conclusion', in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Frans Stokman, eds, European Community Decision Making: Models, Applications and Comparisons (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994). Such a view has been expressed recently, for example, by J. David Singer, 'Prediction Versus Explanation as Standards of Scientific Progress' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York City, September 1994); James N. Rosenau, 'Signals, Signposts and Symptoms: Anticipating and Explaining Major Historical Breakpoints' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, September 1994).
25. Carl Hempel, 'The Function of General Laws of History', in Carl Hempel, ed., Aspects of Scientific Explanation (New York: The Free Press, 1965), p. 234.
26. David Dessler, 'What International Relations Theorists Can Learn from the Natural Sciences' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, New York, September 1994). 'World War III will begin at 2 p.m. on 11 October 1997' would be an example of a prophecy as opposed to a prediction.
27. Singer, 'The Level of Analysis Problem', pp. 79-80.
28. Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962); Imre Lakatos, 'Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes', in Imre Lakatos and Alan Musgrave, eds, Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1970).
29. Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962); Imre Lakatos, 'Falsification and the Methodology of Scientific Research Programmes', in Imre Lakatos and Alan Musgrave, eds, Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1970).
30. Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, for example, cite an article by Philip Kitcher as an authoritative source on 'the incoherence of explanatory-predictive symmetry'. See Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', Politics and Society, 20 (1992), 197-223, at p. 222; Philip Kitcher, 'Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World', in Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon, eds, Scientific Explanation: Volume XIII, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1989). But in that same volume Merrilee Salmon ('Explanation in the Social Sciences', p. 408) having reviewed the controversy regarding Hempel's views on 'nomological' explanations (and predictions of the same structure) concludes: 'Despite protests of the critics of causal and nomological explanation in the social sciences, the best approximations to a satisfactory philosophical theory of explanation seem to embrace successful explanations in the social sciences as well as successful explanations in the physical sciences. None of the critics, I believe, has demonstrated that the admitted differences between our social environment and our physical environment compel us to seek entirely different methods of understanding each.' On this controversy, see also Russell Keat and John Urry, Social Theory as Science (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1982); Alexander Wendt, The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory', International Organization, 41 (1987), 335-68; Roy Bhaskar, A Realist Theory of Science, 2nd edn (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978).
31. Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, for example, cite an article by Philip Kitcher as an authoritative source on 'the incoherence of explanatory-predictive symmetry'. See Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', Politics and Society, 20 (1992), 197-223, at p. 222; Philip Kitcher, 'Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World', in Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon, eds, Scientific Explanation: Volume XIII, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1989). But in that same volume Merrilee Salmon ('Explanation in the Social Sciences', p. 408) having reviewed the controversy regarding Hempel's views on 'nomological' explanations (and predictions of the same structure) concludes: 'Despite protests of the critics of causal and nomological explanation in the social sciences, the best approximations to a satisfactory philosophical theory of explanation seem to embrace successful explanations in the social sciences as well as successful explanations in the physical sciences. None of the critics, I believe, has demonstrated that the admitted differences between our social environment and our physical environment compel us to seek entirely different methods of understanding each.' On this controversy, see also Russell Keat and John Urry, Social Theory as Science (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1982); Alexander Wendt, The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory', International Organization, 41 (1987), 335-68; Roy Bhaskar, A Realist Theory of Science, 2nd edn (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978).
32. Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, for example, cite an article by Philip Kitcher as an authoritative source on 'the incoherence of explanatory-predictive symmetry'. See Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', Politics and Society, 20 (1992), 197-223, at p. 222; Philip Kitcher, 'Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World', in Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon, eds, Scientific Explanation: Volume XIII, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1989). But in that same volume Merrilee Salmon ('Explanation in the Social Sciences', p. 408) having reviewed the controversy regarding Hempel's views on 'nomological' explanations (and predictions of the same structure) concludes: 'Despite protests of the critics of causal and nomological explanation in the social sciences, the best approximations to a satisfactory philosophical theory of explanation seem to embrace successful explanations in the social sciences as well as successful explanations in the physical sciences. None of the critics, I believe, has demonstrated that the admitted differences between our social environment and our physical environment compel us to seek entirely different methods of understanding each.' On this controversy, see also Russell Keat and John Urry, Social Theory as Science (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1982); Alexander Wendt, The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory', International Organization, 41 (1987), 335-68; Roy Bhaskar, A Realist Theory of Science, 2nd edn (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978).
33. Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, for example, cite an article by Philip Kitcher as an authoritative source on 'the incoherence of explanatory-predictive symmetry'. See Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', Politics and Society, 20 (1992), 197-223, at p. 222; Philip Kitcher, 'Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World', in Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon, eds, Scientific Explanation: Volume XIII, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1989). But in that same volume Merrilee Salmon ('Explanation in the Social Sciences', p. 408) having reviewed the controversy regarding Hempel's views on 'nomological' explanations (and predictions of the same structure) concludes: 'Despite protests of the critics of causal and nomological explanation in the social sciences, the best approximations to a satisfactory philosophical theory of explanation seem to embrace successful explanations in the social sciences as well as successful explanations in the physical sciences. None of the critics, I believe, has demonstrated that the admitted differences between our social environment and our physical environment compel us to seek entirely different methods of understanding each.' On this controversy, see also Russell Keat and John Urry, Social Theory as Science (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1982); Alexander Wendt, The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory', International Organization, 41 (1987), 335-68; Roy Bhaskar, A Realist Theory of Science, 2nd edn (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978).
34. Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, for example, cite an article by Philip Kitcher as an authoritative source on 'the incoherence of explanatory-predictive symmetry'. See Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', Politics and Society, 20 (1992), 197-223, at p. 222; Philip Kitcher, 'Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World', in Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon, eds, Scientific Explanation: Volume XIII, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1989). But in that same volume Merrilee Salmon ('Explanation in the Social Sciences', p. 408) having reviewed the controversy regarding Hempel's views on 'nomological' explanations (and predictions of the same structure) concludes: 'Despite protests of the critics of causal and nomological explanation in the social sciences, the best approximations to a satisfactory philosophical theory of explanation seem to embrace successful explanations in the social sciences as well as successful explanations in the physical sciences. None of the critics, I believe, has demonstrated that the admitted differences between our social environment and our physical environment compel us to seek entirely different methods of understanding each.' On this controversy, see also Russell Keat and John Urry, Social Theory as Science (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1982); Alexander Wendt, The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory', International Organization, 41 (1987), 335-68; Roy Bhaskar, A Realist Theory of Science, 2nd edn (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978).
35. Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, for example, cite an article by Philip Kitcher as an authoritative source on 'the incoherence of explanatory-predictive symmetry'. See Ian Shapiro and Alexander Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', Politics and Society, 20 (1992), 197-223, at p. 222; Philip Kitcher, 'Explanatory Unification and the Causal Structure of the World', in Philip Kitcher and Wesley Salmon, eds, Scientific Explanation: Volume XIII, Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science (Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1989). But in that same volume Merrilee Salmon ('Explanation in the Social Sciences', p. 408) having reviewed the controversy regarding Hempel's views on 'nomological' explanations (and predictions of the same structure) concludes: 'Despite protests of the critics of causal and nomological explanation in the social sciences, the best approximations to a satisfactory philosophical theory of explanation seem to embrace successful explanations in the social sciences as well as successful explanations in the physical sciences. None of the critics, I believe, has demonstrated that the admitted differences between our social environment and our physical environment compel us to seek entirely different methods of understanding each.' On this controversy, see also Russell Keat and John Urry, Social Theory as Science (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1982); Alexander Wendt, The Agent-Structure Problem in International Relations Theory', International Organization, 41 (1987), 335-68; Roy Bhaskar, A Realist Theory of Science, 2nd edn (London: Routledge & Kegan Paul, 1978).
36. David Dessler, 'Beyond Correlations: Toward a Causal Theory of War', International Studies Quarterly, 35 (1991), 337-55, at p. 346. Shapiro and Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', p. 212, assert that 'realists are not hostile to logical empiricists' reliance on predictions of empirical regularities as evidence for the validity of claims', while Alexander Rosenberg observes in a similar vein that 'among philosophers of science in recent years at any rate, the most central debate, between realism and antirealism, is about whether prediction of observations is merely necessary for knowledge, as realists hold, or all we need from science, as antirealists hold'. See Economics - Mathematical Politics or Science of Diminishing Returns? (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992), p. 51. For a more extended and somewhat less conciliatory discussion of this issue, see James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995), chap. 4.
37. David Dessler, 'Beyond Correlations: Toward a Causal Theory of War', International Studies Quarterly, 35 (1991), 337-55, at p. 346. Shapiro and Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', p. 212, assert that 'realists are not hostile to logical empiricists' reliance on predictions of empirical regularities as evidence for the validity of claims', while Alexander Rosenberg observes in a similar vein that 'among philosophers of science in recent years at any rate, the most central debate, between realism and antirealism, is about whether prediction of observations is merely necessary for knowledge, as realists hold, or all we need from science, as antirealists hold'. See Economics - Mathematical Politics or Science of Diminishing Returns? (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992), p. 51. For a more extended and somewhat less conciliatory discussion of this issue, see James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995), chap. 4.
38. David Dessler, 'Beyond Correlations: Toward a Causal Theory of War', International Studies Quarterly, 35 (1991), 337-55, at p. 346. Shapiro and Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', p. 212, assert that 'realists are not hostile to logical empiricists' reliance on predictions of empirical regularities as evidence for the validity of claims', while Alexander Rosenberg observes in a similar vein that 'among philosophers of science in recent years at any rate, the most central debate, between realism and antirealism, is about whether prediction of observations is merely necessary for knowledge, as realists hold, or all we need from science, as antirealists hold'. See Economics -Mathematical Politics or Science of Diminishing Returns? (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992), p. 51. For a more extended and somewhat less conciliatory discussion of this issue, see James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995), chap. 4.
39. David Dessler, 'Beyond Correlations: Toward a Causal Theory of War', International Studies Quarterly, 35 (1991), 337-55, at p. 346. Shapiro and Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', p. 212, assert that 'realists are not hostile to logical empiricists' reliance on predictions of empirical regularities as evidence for the validity of claims', while Alexander Rosenberg observes in a similar vein that 'among philosophers of science in recent years at any rate, the most central debate, between realism and antirealism, is about whether prediction of observations is merely necessary for knowledge, as realists hold, or all we need from science, as antirealists hold'. See Economics - Mathematical Politics or Science of Diminishing Returns? (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992), p. 51. For a more extended and somewhat less conciliatory discussion of this issue, see James Lee Ray, Democracy and International Conflict (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1995), chap. 4.
40. W. V. Quine, Pursuit of Truth, rev. edn (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1992), p. 2. Quine also notes that 'A sentence's claim to scientific status rests on what it contributes to a theory whose checkpoints are in prediction' (p. 20).
41. 'It makes more and more sense, the farther in time we are from them, to view World Wars I and II as a single European civil war ...' See John Lewis Gaddis, The United States and the End of the Cold War (New York: Oxford University Press, 1992), p. 5.
42. 'Observation, however, is not determined by theory or discourse; unlike some 'strong' interpretivists, realists contend that well-established theories do refer to, and are constrained by, external reality'. (Shapiro and Wendt, 'The Difference that Realism Makes', p. 211.)
43. Rosenberg, Economics, p. 51.
44. In their otherwise excellent review of many of the same epistemological issues that serve as our focus here, Hollis and Smith, Explaining and Understanding, also fail to cite most of the sources to which we are about to turn our attention.
45. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1981).
46. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'The War Trap Revisited: A Revised Expected Utility Model', American Political Science Review, 79 (1985), 156-77.
47. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions: A Research Program', in Joseph Berger and Morris Zelditch, eds, Theoretical Research Programs (Stanford, Calif.: Stanford University Press, 1993).
48. Described in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions', PS: Political Science and Politics, 17 (1984), 226-36, and in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman and Alvin Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1985).
49. Described in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions', PS: Political Science and Politics, 17 (1984), 226-36, and in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, David Newman and Alvin Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1985).
50. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1992).
51. See in particular Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Political Forecasting: An Expected Utility Method', in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Frans Stokman, eds, European Community Decision Making (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994).
52. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'. Most of the forecasts have been produced by a corporation called Decision Insights, established by Bueno de Mesquita, Jacek Kugler and A. F. K. Organski in 1981 under the name of Policon.
53. Stanley Feder, 'Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics', Studies in Intelligence (recently declassified article in a classified publication; in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed., Inside CIA 's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992 (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1995)).
54. Stanley Feder, 'Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics', Studies in Intelligence (recently declassified article in a classified publication; in H. Bradford Westerfield, ed., Inside CIA 's Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency's Internal Journal, 1955-1992 (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1995)).
55. Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'.
56. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Grace Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement in Nicaragua' (paper for the Conference on Nicaragua: Prospects for a Democratic Outcome, sponsored by the Orkand Corporation, Washington, DC, October 1988).
57. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'.
58. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Chae-Han Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order in Northeast Asia', Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 3 (1991). This article appeared after the vote in the United Nations, but the editor notes on the first page that it had been submitted and accepted before the vote.
59. 'Outcome of the Soviet Coup and its Political Aftermath' (Decision Insights Incorporated Assessment, 19 August 1991).
60. This statement was made in a telephone conversation with the chairman of the consulting organization in question. In the preceding eighteen months, Decision Insights had provided political forecasting and strategic planning services to more than thirty-seven private-sector clients.
61. James Lee Ray, Global Politics, 6th edn (Boston, Mass.: Houghton Mifflin, 1995), p. 147.
62. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'; 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; 'Political Forecasting'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute', International Organization, 44 (1990), 317-40. Manuel Oroszco, currently a graduate student at the University of Texas, replicated the software that produced analyses reported in Bueno de Mesquita, Rabushka and Newman, Forecasting Political Events. Bueno de Mesquita offers his own exposition of the record of success achieved by his approach in 'The Benefits of a Social Scientific Approach to Studying International Affairs', in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Affairs Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
63. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'; 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; 'Political Forecasting'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute', International Organization, 44 (1990), 317-40. Manuel Oroszco, currently a graduate student at the University of Texas, replicated the software that produced analyses reported in Bueno de Mesquita, Rabushka and Newman, Forecasting Political Events. Bueno de Mesquita offers his own exposition of the record of success achieved by his approach in 'The Benefits of a Social Scientific Approach to Studying International Affairs', in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Affairs Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
64. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'; 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; 'Political Forecasting'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute', International Organization, 44 (1990), 317-40. Manuel Oroszco, currently a graduate student at the University of Texas, replicated the software that produced analyses reported in Bueno de Mesquita, Rabushka and Newman, Forecasting Political Events. Bueno de Mesquita offers his own exposition of the record of success achieved by his approach in 'The Benefits of a Social Scientific Approach to Studying International Affairs', in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Affairs Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
65. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'; 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; 'Political Forecasting'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute', International Organization, 44 (1990), 317-40. Manuel Oroszco, currently a graduate student at the University of Texas, replicated the software that produced analyses reported in Bueno de Mesquita, Rabushka and Newman, Forecasting Political Events. Bueno de Mesquita offers his own exposition of the record of success achieved by his approach in 'The Benefits of a Social Scientific Approach to Studying International Affairs', in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Affairs Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
66. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'; 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; 'Political Forecasting'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute', International Organization, 44 (1990), 317-40. Manuel Oroszco, currently a graduate student at the University of Texas, replicated the software that produced analyses reported in Bueno de Mesquita, Rabushka and Newman, Forecasting Political Events. Bueno de Mesquita offers his own exposition of the record of success achieved by his approach in 'The Benefits of a Social Scientific Approach to Studying International Affairs', in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Affairs Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
67. Bueno de Mesquita, 'The Game of Conflict Interactions'; 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; 'Political Forecasting'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations: A Spatial Analysis of the Arab-Israeli Dispute', International Organization, 44 (1990), 317-40. Manuel Oroszco, currently a graduate student at the University of Texas, replicated the software that produced analyses reported in Bueno de Mesquita, Rabushka and Newman, Forecasting Political Events. Bueno de Mesquita offers his own exposition of the record of success achieved by his approach in 'The Benefits of a Social Scientific Approach to Studying International Affairs', in Ngaire Woods, ed., Explaining International Affairs Since 1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996).
68. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
69. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
70. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
71. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
72. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
73. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
74. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
75. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
76. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
77. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
78. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
79. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
80. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting Political Decisions'; Multilateral Negotiations'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'; Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Bueno de Mesquita and Kim, 'Prospects for a New Regional Order'; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and A. F. K. Organski, 'A Mark in Time Saves Nein' (Conference on European Integration, Groningen, The Netherlands, May 1990), later published in International Political Science Review, 13 (1992), 81-100; Patrick James, 'Rational Choice? Crisis Bargaining Over the Meech Lake Accord' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, June 1992); Jacek Kugler, 'The Politics of Foreign Debt in Latin America: A Study of the Debtors' Cartel', International Interactions, 13 (1987), 115-44; James D. Morrow, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Samuel Wu, 'Forecasting the Risks of Nuclear Proliferation: Taiwan as an Illustration of Method', Security Studies, 2 (1993), 311-31; David Newman and Brian Bridges, 'North Korean Nuclear Weapons Policy: An Expected Utility Study', Pacific Focus, 9 (Fall 1994), 61-80; A. F. K. Organski and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Forecasting the 1992 French Referendum', in Roger Morgan, J. Lorentzen and A. Leander, eds, New Diplomacy in the Post-Cold War World (New York: St Martin's Press, 1993); Samuel Wu and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, 'Assessing the Dispute in the South China Sea: A Model of China's Security Decision Making', International Studies Quarterly, 38 (1994), 379-403.
81. See especially several chapters in Bueno de Mesquita and Stokman, European Community Decision Making; Jacek Kugler, Lewis W. Snider and William Longwell, 'From Desert Shield to Desert Storm: Success, Strife, or Quagmire?' Conflict Management and Peace Science, 13 (1994), 113-48.
82. See especially several chapters in Bueno de Mesquita and Stokman, European Community Decision Making; Jacek Kugler, Lewis W. Snider and William Longwell, 'From Desert Shield to Desert Storm: Success, Strife, or Quagmire?' Conflict Management and Peace Science, 13 (1994), 113-48.
83. Donald P. Green and Ian Shapiro, Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory: A Critique of Applications in Political Science (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1994).
84. Rosenberg, Economics. According to J. David Singer, '"Rational choice" explanations for the behavior of political elites in general, and statesmen in particular ... [are] not only redolent of failed models that litter the landscape of modern economics, but dramatically at odds with the more solid findings in psychology.' See 'The Evolution of Anarchy vs. the Evolution of Cooperation', Politics and Life Sciences, 13 (1994), 26-8 at p. 28.
85. Rosenberg, Economics. According to J. David Singer, '"Rational choice" explanations for the behavior of political elites in general, and statesmen in particular ... [are] not only redolent of failed models that litter the landscape of modern economics, but dramatically at odds with the more solid findings in psychology.' See 'The Evolution of Anarchy vs. the Evolution of Cooperation', Politics and Life Sciences, 13 (1994), 26-8 at p. 28.
86. The discussion that follows owes much to the recent critiques of rational choice approaches by Green and Shapiro, Pathologies of Rational Choice, as well as that by Rosenberg, Economics, which, in general, we might add, have much to recommend them. It probably should be pointed out here that the focus of Pathologies of Rational Choice is on American Politics (so it does not address
87. The discussion that follows owes much to the recent critiques of rational choice approaches by Green and Shapiro, Pathologies of Rational Choice, as well as that by Rosenberg, Economics, which, in general, we might add, have much to recommend them. It probably should be pointed out here that the focus of Pathologies of Rational Choice is on American Politics (so it does not address Bueno de Mesquita's rational choice approach explicitly), and that Rosenberg's volume is dedicated to (among others) Bruce Bueno de Mesquita.
88. See Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap; 'The War Trap Revisited'; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason.
89. See Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap; 'The War Trap Revisited'; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason.
90. See Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap; 'The War Trap Revisited'; Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason.
91. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Feder, 'Factions and Policon'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'.
92. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Feder, 'Factions and Policon'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'.
93. For example, Bueno de Mesquita, Newman and Rabushka, Forecasting Political Events; Feder, 'Factions and Policon'; Bueno de Mesquita and Iusi-Scarborough, 'Forecasting the Nature of Political Settlement'.
94. Bueno de Mesquita, 'Political Forecasting,' and Woosang Kim and Bueno de Mesquita, 'How Perceptions Influence the Risk of War', International Studies Quarterly, 39 (1995), 51-65.
95. Bueno de Mesquita, 'Political Forecasting,' and Woosang Kim and Bueno de Mesquita, 'How Perceptions Influence the Risk of War', International Studies Quarterly, 39 (1995), 51-65.
96. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992); John Horgan, 'From Complexity to Perplexity', Scientific American, 272 (1995), 104-9; Curt Suplee, 'Computer Program May Give Insight to How Societies Evolve', Washington Post, May 1995 (reprinted in the Tampa Tribune, 5 May 1995).
97. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992); John Horgan, 'From Complexity to Perplexity', Scientific American, 272 (1995), 104-9; Curt Suplee, 'Computer Program May Give Insight to How Societies Evolve', Washington Post, May 1995 (reprinted in the Tampa Tribune, 5 May 1995).
98. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992); John Horgan, 'From Complexity to Perplexity', Scientific American, 272 (1995), 104-9; Curt Suplee, 'Computer Program May Give Insight to How Societies Evolve', Washington Post, May 1995 (reprinted in the Tampa Tribune, 5 May 1995).
99. Mitchell Waldrop, Complexity: The Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1992); John Horgan, 'From Complexity to Perplexity', Scientific American, 272 (1995), 104-9; Curt Suplee, 'Computer Program May Give Insight to How Societies Evolve', Washington Post, May 1995 (reprinted in the Tampa Tribune, 5 May 1995).
100. 'A theory of politics has no payoff if its hypotheses do not survive empirical scrutiny. In this light, it is surprising that both defenders and critics of rational choice theory have paid so little attention to empirical testing' (Green and Shapiro, Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory, p. 32). 'Over a ten year period the proportion of papers in the American Economic Review that elaborated mathematical models without bringing the models into contact with data exceeded 50 percent and ... a further 22 percent involved indirect statistical inference from data previously published' (Rosenberg, Economics, p. 66). Another 15 per cent of articles in the American Economic Review during this period, according to Rosenberg, involved neither mathematical formulation nor data.
101. 'A theory of politics has no payoff if its hypotheses do not survive empirical scrutiny. In this light, it is surprising that both defenders and critics of rational choice theory have paid so little attention to empirical testing' (Green and Shapiro, Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory, p. 32). 'Over a ten year period the proportion of papers in the American Economic Review that elaborated mathematical models without bringing the models into contact with data exceeded 50 percent and ... a further 22 percent involved indirect statistical inference from data previously published' (Rosenberg, Economics, p. 66). Another 15 per cent of articles in the American Economic Review during this period, according to Rosenberg, involved neither mathematical formulation nor data.
102. 'A theory of politics has no payoff if its hypotheses do not survive empirical scrutiny. In this light, it is surprising that both defenders and critics of rational choice theory have paid so little attention to empirical testing' (Green and Shapiro, Pathologies of Rational Choice Theory, p. 32). 'Over a ten year period the proportion of papers in the American Economic Review that elaborated mathematical models without bringing the models into contact with data exceeded 50 percent and ... a further 22 percent involved indirect statistical inference from data previously published' (Rosenberg, Economics, p. 66). Another 15 per cent of articles in the American Economic Review during this period, according to Rosenberg, involved neither mathematical formulation nor data.
103. David Laitin, 'The Return of the Son of the Bride of the Future of Comparative Politics' (APSA-CP, Newsletter of the American Political Science Association's Organized Section in Comparative Politics, 5 (1994), p. 4). Laitin goes on to observe that 'having a specialist for every piece of international real estate may soon seem as arcane as having a specialist for every planet in the astronomy department' (p. 4).
104. Chalmers Johnson and E. B. Keehn, 'A Disaster in the Making: Rational Choice and Asian Studies', The National Interest, No. 36 (1994), 14-22, at p. 18.
105. 'Through the judicious use of modelling and area expertise, it is possible to derive issue-specific analyses that are more reliable and more informative than can be achieved through modelling alone or through area expertise by itself.' (Bueno de Mesquita, 'Multilateral Negotiations', p. 340.)
106. Feder, 'Factions and Policon'. Policon is the name of the original corporation founded by Bueno de Mesquita and his associates (see fn. 34).
107. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', p. 18; Puchala. 'Woe to the Orphans', p. 79. Even John Lewis Gaddis might now agree with our statement. Gaddis and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita have discussed in some detail what amounts to a simulation of the history of the Cold War based on Bueno de Mesquita's model, in a paper with a working title of 'The End of the Cold War as an Emergent Property: Complexity in International Affairs'. These conversations have led Gaddis to conclude (in an e-mail message to Bueno de Mesquita on 8 February 1995) that 'as I understand it, what you've done is to confirm Axelrod's "evolution of cooperation" model in iterated prisoners' dilemma games, and then extend it beyond where he went to show how what looks like a robust system over time (a 'long peace'?) can suddenly break down. You've shown that this can happen not through war or mutual convergence, which always seemed to be the only choices while the Cold War was going on, but by one side's suddenly shifting to the other's point of view. That strikes me as an important advance over earlier approaches to predictive modelling because it takes into account the emergent properties of complex adaptive systems. It's getting closer to how historians think.' This is from a copy of this e-mail correspondence (sent via e-mail) to James Ray by John Gaddis, in which Gaddis also acknowledges that 'there has been a sort of BdM-JLG convergence' (8 February 1995).
108. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', p. 18; Puchala. 'Woe to the Orphans', p. 79. Even John Lewis Gaddis might now agree with our statement. Gaddis and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita have discussed in some detail what amounts to a simulation of the history of the Cold War based on Bueno de Mesquita's model, in a paper with a working title of 'The End of the Cold War as an Emergent Property: Complexity in International Affairs'. These conversations have led Gaddis to conclude (in an e-mail message to Bueno de Mesquita on 8 February 1995) that 'as I understand it, what you've done is to confirm Axelrod's "evolution of cooperation" model in iterated prisoners' dilemma games, and then extend it beyond where he went to show how what looks like a robust system over time (a 'long peace'?) can suddenly break down. You've shown that this can happen not through war or mutual convergence, which always seemed to be the only choices while the Cold War was going on, but by one side's suddenly shifting to the other's point of view. That strikes me as an important advance over earlier approaches to predictive modelling because it takes into account the emergent properties of complex adaptive systems. It's getting closer to how historians think.' This is from a copy of this e-mail correspondence (sent via e-mail) to James Ray by John Gaddis, in which Gaddis also acknowledges that 'there has been a sort of BdM-JLG convergence' (8 February 1995).
109. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', p. 18; Puchala. 'Woe to the Orphans', p. 79. Even John Lewis Gaddis might now agree with our statement. Gaddis and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita have discussed in some detail what amounts to a simulation of the history of the Cold War based on Bueno de Mesquita's model, in a paper with a working title of 'The End of the Cold War as an Emergent Property: Complexity in International Affairs'. These conversations have led Gaddis to conclude (in an e-mail message to Bueno de Mesquita on 8 February 1995) that 'as I understand it, what you've done is to confirm Axelrod's "evolution of cooperation" model in iterated prisoners' dilemma games, and then extend it beyond where he went to show how what looks like a robust system over time (a 'long peace'?) can suddenly break down. You've shown that this can happen not through war or mutual convergence, which always seemed to be the only choices while the Cold War was going on, but by one side's suddenly shifting to the other's point of view. That strikes me as an important advance over earlier approaches to predictive modelling because it takes into account the emergent properties of complex adaptive systems. It's getting closer to how historians think.' This is from a copy of this e-mail correspondence (sent via e-mail) to James Ray by John Gaddis, in which Gaddis also acknowledges that 'there has been a sort of BdM-JLG convergence' (8 February 1995).
110. Decision Insights, however, did produce forecasts of the break-up of the Soviet Union shortly after the coup attempt of August 1991. John Mueller also asserted in 1986 that 'we may be coming to the end of the world as we know it. The predominant characteristic of international affairs over the last 40 years has been competition and confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union, and there is a great deal in the present situation to suggest that this condition could be on the verge of terminal improvement; the incentives for the Soviet Union to reduce its commitment to worldwide revolution are considerable. This could eventually result in the end of the cold war' ('Containment and the Decline of the Soviet Empire', paper presented to the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Anaheim, California, March 1986, p. 1). This paper is informed by international relations theory to some extent, particularly in its conclusion about the low probability of an international war between the United States and the Soviet Union. It might be fair to say, however, that its impressive prescience regarding the demise of the Cold War is based more on wisdom, intuition and a pragmatic logic of cost-benefit analysis than a well-developed explicit theory of international politics.
111. Gaddis, 'International Relations Theory', p. 18 (emphasis in the original).
112. Richard Ned Lebow, 'The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism', in Lebow and Thomas Risse-Kappen, eds, International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1995), pp. 23-56, at p. 24. In the same volume, Kenneth Oye ('Explaining the End of the Cold War: Morphological and Behavioral Adaptations to the Nuclear Peace?' pp. 57-84, at p. 58) states, 'Because realism is underidentified, it cannot be tested with reference to the end of the Cold War or any other sequence of events'.
113. Richard Ned Lebow, 'The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism', in Lebow and Thomas Risse-Kappen, eds, International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1995), pp. 23-56, at p. 24. In the same volume, Kenneth Oye ('Explaining the End of the Cold War: Morphological and Behavioral Adaptations to the Nuclear Peace?' pp. 57-84, at p. 58) states, 'Because realism is underidentified, it cannot be tested with reference to the end of the Cold War or any other sequence of events'.
114. In defence of the idea that this account is consistent with realism it might be pointed out that David Sanders provides an account based on realism of the withdrawal of Great Britain from its colonies in the late 1940s and the 1950s with some similarities to Wohlforth's realistic account of the withdrawal of the Soviet Union from Eastern Europe (see Losing an Empire, Finding a Role (London: Macmillan, 1990), esp. pp. 265-9). However, unlike Wohlforth, Sanders emphasizes that realism calls for ensuring that the evacuated areas are left in the hands of the 'firmest and most trustworthy ally' (p. 267), something the Soviets did not accomplish. And like Wohlforth, Sanders provides this realistic account of a withdrawal from imperial holdings only well after the fact.
115. William Wohlforth, 'Realism and the End of the Cold War', International Security, 19 (1994/95), 91-129, at p. 93. It is only fair to point out that Wohlforth goes on to argue that the strength of realist theories is only evident 'when they are compared to the alternatives, which suffer from similar or worse indeterminacy but do not possess comparable explanatory power' (p. 93). We intend to compare realism not only to some ideal standard, but also to a specific alternative.
116. Rey Koslowski and Friedrich V. Kratochwil, 'Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System', in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, eds, International Relations Theory, pp. 127-65, at pp. 129 and 131-2. Similarly, Gaddis asserts that 'the second most "powerful" state on the face of the earth did voluntarily give up power, despite the insistence of international relations theory that this could never happen'. See John Lewis Gaddis, 'How the Cold War's end dramatizes the failure of political theory', Chronicle of Higher Education, 38 (22 July 1992), A44. And Lebow, 'The Long Peace' (p. 41), argues that 'the most fundamental tenet of realism is that states act to preserve their territorial integrity. Gorbachev's decision to abandon Eastern Europe's communist regimes wittingly called the integrity of the Soviet empire into question. It triggered demands for independence from the Baltics to Central Asia that led to the demise of the Soviet state'. Thinking about whether Gorbachev's behaviour was both pivotal and not to be expected from other possible Soviet leaders constitutes a useful counterfactual exercise to help sort out the role of systemic forces in constraining leaders. On such exercises, see Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, forthcoming).
117. Rey Koslowski and Friedrich V. Kratochwil, 'Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System', in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, eds, International Relations Theory, pp. 127-65, at pp. 129 and 131-2. Similarly, Gaddis asserts that 'the second most "powerful" state on the face of the earth did voluntarily give up power, despite the insistence of international relations theory that this could never happen'. See John Lewis Gaddis, 'How the Cold War's end dramatizes the failure of political theory', Chronicle of Higher Education, 38 (22 July 1992), A44. And Lebow, 'The Long Peace' (p. 41), argues that 'the most fundamental tenet of realism is that states act to preserve their territorial integrity. Gorbachev's decision to abandon Eastern Europe's communist regimes wittingly called the integrity of the Soviet empire into question. It triggered demands for independence from the Baltics to Central Asia that led to the demise of the Soviet state'. Thinking about whether Gorbachev's behaviour was both pivotal and not to be expected from other possible Soviet leaders constitutes a useful counterfactual exercise to help sort out the role of systemic forces in constraining leaders. On such exercises, see Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, forthcoming).
118. Rey Koslowski and Friedrich V. Kratochwil, 'Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System', in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, eds, International Relations Theory, pp. 127-65, at pp. 129 and 131-2. Similarly, Gaddis asserts that 'the second most "powerful" state on the face of the earth did voluntarily give up power, despite the insistence of international relations theory that this could never happen'. See John Lewis Gaddis, 'How the Cold War's end dramatizes the failure of political theory', Chronicle of Higher Education, 38 (22 July 1992), A44. And Lebow, 'The Long Peace' (p. 41), argues that 'the most fundamental tenet of realism is that states act to preserve their territorial integrity. Gorbachev's decision to abandon Eastern Europe's communist regimes wittingly called the integrity of the Soviet empire into question. It triggered demands for independence from the Baltics to Central Asia that led to the demise of the Soviet state'. Thinking about whether Gorbachev's behaviour was both pivotal and not to be expected from other possible Soviet leaders constitutes a useful counterfactual exercise to help sort out the role of systemic forces in constraining leaders. On such exercises, see Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, forthcoming).
119. Rey Koslowski and Friedrich V. Kratochwil, 'Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System', in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, eds, International Relations Theory, pp. 127-65, at pp. 129 and 131-2. Similarly, Gaddis asserts that 'the second most "powerful" state on the face of the earth did voluntarily give up power, despite the insistence of international relations theory that this could never happen'. See John Lewis Gaddis, 'How the Cold War's end dramatizes the failure of political theory', Chronicle of Higher Education, 38 (22 July 1992), A44. And Lebow, 'The Long Peace' (p. 41), argues that 'the most fundamental tenet of realism is that states act to preserve their territorial integrity. Gorbachev's decision to abandon Eastern Europe's communist regimes wittingly called the integrity of the Soviet empire into question. It triggered demands for independence from the Baltics to Central Asia that led to the demise of the Soviet state'. Thinking about whether Gorbachev's behaviour was both pivotal and not to be expected from other possible Soviet leaders constitutes a useful counterfactual exercise to help sort out the role of systemic forces in constraining leaders. On such exercises, see Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, eds, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996, forthcoming).
120. Lebow, 'The Long Peace', p. 39. Also Fred Chernoff, 'Ending the Cold War: The Soviet Retreat and the US Military Buildup', International Affairs, 67 (1991), 111-26.
121. Lebow, 'The Long Peace', p. 39. Also Fred Chernoff, 'Ending the Cold War: The Soviet Retreat and the US Military Buildup', International Affairs, 67 (1991), 111-26.
122. John Mueller of the University of Rochester expressed the following in a September 1994 personal communication to us: 'Insofar as anyone can figure out what realism in its various forms (neo, structural, quasi, crypto, semi, defensive, last-ditch, kinky, etc.) actually was, therefore, it seems to me it was (I like the past tense here) not only flawed in that it was incapable of predicting the end of the Cold War, but that it had a negative, even blinding or at least blinkering, effect in that it caused people for decades to focus on the wrong dynamic and to be incapable of seeing what was going on. It ignored domestic issues willfully and to its ultimate peril'.
123. Various examples are reviewed by contributors to Pierre Allan and Kjell Goldmann, eds, The End of the Cold War: Evaluating Theories of International Relations (Dordrecht: Martinus Nijhoff, 1992). In his chapter, 'The Events in Eastern Europe and the Crisis in the Discipline of International Relations', Philip Evarts does a particularly devastating job of compiling forecasts that turned out very wrong.
124. This is the characterization by Kjell Goldman, 'Bargaining, Power, Domestic Politics, and Security Dilemmas: Soviet "New Thinking" as Evidence', and Isabelle Grunberg and Thomas Risse-Kappen, 'A Time of Reckoning? Theories of International Relations and the End of the Cold War', in Allan and Goldman, eds, The End of the Cold War. This is certainly not to imply that such a forecast should, by contrast, have taken the form of a point prediction.
125. This is the characterization by Kjell Goldman, 'Bargaining, Power, Domestic Politics, and Security Dilemmas: Soviet "New Thinking" as Evidence', and Isabelle Grunberg and Thomas Risse-Kappen, 'A Time of Reckoning? Theories of International Relations and the End of the Cold War', in Allan and Goldman, eds, The End of the Cold War. This is certainly not to imply that such a forecast should, by contrast, have taken the form of a point prediction.
126. R. J. Rummel, The Dynamic Psychological Field: Vol. 1, Understanding Conflict and War (New York: Sage Publications, 1975).
127. Michael Doyle, 'Liberalism and World Polities', American Political Science Review, 80 (1986), 1151-70.
128. Spencer R. Weart, 'Peace Among Democracies and Oligarchic Republics', Journal of Peace Research, 31 (1994), 229-316; James Lee Ray, 'Wars Between Democracies: Rare, or Non-Existent?' International Interactions, 18 (1993), 251-76, John Owen, 'How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 87-125.
129. Spencer R. Weart, 'Peace Among Democracies and Oligarchic Republics', Journal of Peace Research, 31 (1994), 229-316; James Lee Ray, 'Wars Between Democracies: Rare, or Non-Existent?' International Interactions, 18 (1993), 251-76, John Owen, 'How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 87-125.
130. Spencer R. Weart, 'Peace Among Democracies and Oligarchic Republics', Journal of Peace Research, 31 (1994), 229-316; James Lee Ray, 'Wars Between Democracies: Rare, or Non-Existent?' International Interactions, 18 (1993), 251-76, John Owen, 'How Liberalism Produces Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 87-125.
131. Alex Mintz and Nehemia Geva, 'Why Don't Democracies Fight Each Other?' Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37 (1993), 484-503.
132. Carol R. Ember, Melvin Ember and Bruce M. Russett, 'Peace Between Participatory Polities: A Cross-Cultural Test of the "Democracies Rarely Fight Each Other" Hypothesis', World Politics, 44 (1992), 573-99; Neta Crawford, 'A Security Regime among Democracies: Cooperation Among Iroquois Nations', International Organization, 48 (1994), 345-85.
133. Carol R. Ember, Melvin Ember and Bruce M. Russett, 'Peace Between Participatory Polities: A Cross-Cultural Test of the "Democracies Rarely Fight Each Other" Hypothesis', World Politics, 44 (1992), 573-99; Neta Crawford, 'A Security Regime among Democracies: Cooperation Among Iroquois Nations', International Organization, 48 (1994), 345-85.
134. Stuart Bremer, 'Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36 (1992), 309-41; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 624-38. These and additional sources in each of these categories are reviewed in Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict. Also see John Oneal, Frances Oneal, Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-1986', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1996).
135. Stuart Bremer, 'Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36 (1992), 309-41; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 624-38. These and additional sources in each of these categories are reviewed in Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict. Also see John Oneal, Frances Oneal, Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-1986', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1996).
136. Stuart Bremer, 'Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36 (1992), 309-41; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 624-38. These and additional sources in each of these categories are reviewed in Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict. Also see John Oneal, Frances Oneal, Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-1986', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1996).
137. Stuart Bremer, 'Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36 (1992), 309-41; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 624-38. These and additional sources in each of these categories are reviewed in Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict. Also see John Oneal, Frances Oneal, Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-1986', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1996).
138. Stuart Bremer, 'Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36 (1992), 309-41; Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 624-38. These and additional sources in each of these categories are reviewed in Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1993), and Ray, Democracy and International Conflict. Also see John Oneal, Frances Oneal, Zeev Maoz and Bruce Russett, 'The Liberal Peace: Interdependence, Democracy, and International Conflict, 1950-1986', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1996).
139. Raymond Cohen, 'Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory that "Democracies Do Not Go to War With Each Other"', Review of International Studies, 20 (1994), 207-23; Christopher Layne, 'Kant or Cant: The Myth of Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 5-49 and David Spiro, 'The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 50-86; argue that the democratic peace proposition fails on conceptual, historical, or statistical grounds. We believe we refute these arguments in Russett and Ray 'Why the Democratic-Peace Proposition Lives', Review of International Studies, 21 (1995), 319-23; and Russett, 'The Democratic Peace: And Yet It Moves', International Security, 19 (1995), 164-77. In his reply in the same issue of International Security, Layne (pp. 175-7) makes the novel charge that Russett is guilty of practising postmodernism.
140. Raymond Cohen, 'Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory that "Democracies Do Not Go to War With Each Other"', Review of International Studies, 20 (1994), 207-23; Christopher Layne, 'Kant or Cant: The Myth of Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 5-49 and David Spiro, 'The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 50-86; argue that the democratic peace proposition fails on conceptual, historical, or statistical grounds. We believe we refute these arguments in Russett and Ray 'Why the Democratic-Peace Proposition Lives', Review of International Studies, 21 (1995), 319-23; and Russett, 'The Democratic Peace: And Yet It Moves', International Security, 19 (1995), 164-77. In his reply in the same issue of International Security, Layne (pp. 175-7) makes the novel charge that Russett is guilty of practising postmodernism.
141. Raymond Cohen, 'Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory that "Democracies Do Not Go to War With Each Other"', Review of International Studies, 20 (1994), 207-23; Christopher Layne, 'Kant or Cant: The Myth of Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 5-49 and David Spiro, 'The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 50-86; argue that the democratic peace proposition fails on conceptual, historical, or statistical grounds. We believe we refute these arguments in Russett and Ray 'Why the Democratic-Peace Proposition Lives', Review of International Studies, 21 (1995), 319-23; and Russett, 'The Democratic Peace: And Yet It Moves', International Security, 19 (1995), 164-77. In his reply in the same issue of International Security, Layne (pp. 175-7) makes the novel charge that Russett is guilty of practising postmodernism.
142. Raymond Cohen, 'Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory that "Democracies Do Not Go to War With Each Other"', Review of International Studies, 20 (1994), 207-23; Christopher Layne, 'Kant or Cant: The Myth of Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 5-49 and David Spiro, 'The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 50-86; argue that the democratic peace proposition fails on conceptual, historical, or statistical grounds. We believe we refute these arguments in Russett and Ray 'Why the Democratic-Peace Proposition Lives', Review of International Studies, 21 (1995), 319-23; and Russett, 'The Democratic Peace: And Yet It Moves', International Security, 19 (1995), 164-77. In his reply in the same issue of International Security, Layne (pp. 175-7) makes the novel charge that Russett is guilty of practising postmodernism.
143. Raymond Cohen, 'Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory that "Democracies Do Not Go to War With Each Other"', Review of International Studies, 20 (1994), 207-23; Christopher Layne, 'Kant or Cant: The Myth of Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 5-49 and David Spiro, 'The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 50-86; argue that the democratic peace proposition fails on conceptual, historical, or statistical grounds. We believe we refute these arguments in Russett and Ray 'Why the Democratic-Peace Proposition Lives', Review of International Studies, 21 (1995), 319-23; and Russett, 'The Democratic Peace: And Yet It Moves', International Security, 19 (1995), 164-77. In his reply in the same issue of International Security, Layne (pp. 175-7) makes the novel charge that Russett is guilty of practising postmodernism.
144. Raymond Cohen, 'Pacific Unions: A Reappraisal of the Theory that "Democracies Do Not Go to War With Each Other"', Review of International Studies, 20 (1994), 207-23; Christopher Layne, 'Kant or Cant: The Myth of Democratic Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 5-49 and David Spiro, 'The Insignificance of the Liberal Peace', International Security, 19 (1994), 50-86; argue that the democratic peace proposition fails on conceptual, historical, or statistical grounds. We believe we refute these arguments in Russett and Ray 'Why the Democratic-Peace Proposition Lives', Review of International Studies, 21 (1995), 319-23; and Russett, 'The Democratic Peace: And Yet It Moves', International Security, 19 (1995), 164-77. In his reply in the same issue of International Security, Layne (pp. 175-7) makes the novel charge that Russett is guilty of practising postmodernism.
145. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
146. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
147. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
148. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
149. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
150. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
151. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
152. Randolph Siverson and Juliann Emmons, 'Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (1991), 285-306: Anne-Marie Burley (Slaughter), 'Law among Liberal States: Liberal Internationalism and the Act of State Doctrine', Columbia Law Review, 92 (1992), 1907-96; Jacob Bercovitch, 'International Mediation and Dispute Settlement: Evaluating the Conditions for Successful Mediation,' Negotiation Journal, 7 (1991), 17-30; Michael Brecher, Crises in World Politics: Theory and Reality (Oxford: Pergamon, 1993); William Dixon, 'Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of International Conflict', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 14-32; Gregory A. Raymond, 'Democracies, Disputes, and Third-Party Intermediaries', Journal of Conflict Resolution, 38 (1994), 24-42; Michele Garfinkel, 'Domestic Politics and International Conflict', American Economic Review, 84 (1994), 1294-1309; Zeev Maoz, Domestic Sources of Global Change (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996).
153. David Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 24-37; Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, 'The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Powers in International Competition' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1994); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, 'War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 638-46; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 841-55; James D. Fearon, 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 577-92. One implication of these works considered together is that democratic states might avoid war against each other because they are formidable opponents in war, and because democratic states are particularly vulnerable to a loss of power in the wake of a lost war. See Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, chap. 1.
154. David Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 24-37; Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, 'The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Powers in International Competition' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1994); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, 'War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 638-46; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 841-55; James D. Fearon, 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 577-92. One implication of these works considered together is that democratic states might avoid war against each other because they are formidable opponents in war, and because democratic states are particularly vulnerable to a loss of power in the wake of a lost war. See Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, chap. 1.
155. David Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 24-37; Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, 'The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Powers in International Competition' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1994); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, 'War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 638-46; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 841-55; James D. Fearon, 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 577-92. One implication of these works considered together is that democratic states might avoid war against each other because they are formidable opponents in war, and because democratic states are particularly vulnerable to a loss of power in the wake of a lost war. See Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, chap. 1.
156. David Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 24-37; Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, 'The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Powers in International Competition' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1994); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, 'War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 638-46; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 841-55; James D. Fearon, 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 577-92. One implication of these works considered together is that democratic states might avoid war against each other because they are formidable opponents in war, and because democratic states are particularly vulnerable to a loss of power in the wake of a lost war. See Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, chap. 1.
157. David Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 24-37; Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, 'The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Powers in International Competition' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1994); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, 'War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 638-46; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 841-55; James D. Fearon, 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 577-92. One implication of these works considered together is that democratic states might avoid war against each other because they are formidable opponents in war, and because democratic states are particularly vulnerable to a loss of power in the wake of a lost war. See Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, chap. 1.
158. David Lake, 'Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 24-37; Kenneth Schultz and Barry Weingast, 'The Democratic Advantage: The Institutional Sources of State Powers in International Competition' (paper given at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1994); Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Randolph M. Siverson and Gary Woller, 'War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis', American Political Science Review, 86 (1992), 638-46; Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Randolph M. Siverson, 'War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability', American Political Science Review, 89 (1995), 841-55; James D. Fearon, 'Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 577-92. One implication of these works considered together is that democratic states might avoid war against each other because they are formidable opponents in war, and because democratic states are particularly vulnerable to a loss of power in the wake of a lost war. See Ray, Democracy and International Conflict, chap. 1.
159. Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason, pp. 156-7.
160. In Polity III, the Soviet Union received a score of 0 on the institutionalized democracy index (on a scale from 0 to 10) in 1986, a score of 5 in 1989, and 7 in 1991. On the institutionalized autocracy index (also a 0 to 10 scale), it had a score of 7 in 1986, 1 in 1989, and 0 in 1991. On the Freedom House indicators, the Soviet Union received the worst (least democratic) possible scores on political rights and on civil liberties (that is, 7s) in 1986, and moved to scores of 6 and 5 by 1988; at the end of 1990 it was coded as 3 on both scales. Keith Jaggers and Ted Gurr, 'Transitions to Democracy: Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1995), 469-82; Raymond D. Gastil, Freedom in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1988-1989 (New York: Freedom House, 1989); R. Bruce McColm, Freedom in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1991-1992 (New York: Freedom House, 1992).
161. In Polity III, the Soviet Union received a score of 0 on the institutionalized democracy index (on a scale from 0 to 10) in 1986, a score of 5 in 1989, and 7 in 1991. On the institutionalized autocracy index (also a 0 to 10 scale), it had a score of 7 in 1986, 1 in 1989, and 0 in 1991. On the Freedom House indicators, the Soviet Union received the worst (least democratic) possible scores on political rights and on civil liberties (that is, 7s) in 1986, and moved to scores of 6 and 5 by 1988; at the end of 1990 it was coded as 3 on both scales. Keith Jaggers and Ted Gurr, 'Transitions to Democracy: Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1995), 469-82; Raymond D. Gastil, Freedom in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1988-1989 (New York: Freedom House, 1989); R. Bruce McColm, Freedom in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1991-1992 (New York: Freedom House, 1992).
162. In Polity III, the Soviet Union received a score of 0 on the institutionalized democracy index (on a scale from 0 to 10) in 1986, a score of 5 in 1989, and 7 in 1991. On the institutionalized autocracy index (also a 0 to 10 scale), it had a score of 7 in 1986, 1 in 1989, and 0 in 1991. On the Freedom House indicators, the Soviet Union received the worst (least democratic) possible scores on political rights and on civil liberties (that is, 7s) in 1986, and moved to scores of 6 and 5 by 1988; at the end of 1990 it was coded as 3 on both scales. Keith Jaggers and Ted Gurr, 'Transitions to Democracy: Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data', Journal of Peace Research, 32 (1995), 469-82; Raymond D. Gastil, Freedom in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1988-1989 (New York: Freedom House, 1989); R. Bruce McColm, Freedom in the World: Political Rights and Civil Liberties, 1991-1992 (New York: Freedom House, 1992).
163. Zbigniew Brzezinsky, ed., Dilemmas of Change in Soviet Politics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1969). Summary characterizations of each contributor's position appear on p. 157.
164. Helen d'Encausse, Decline of an Empire: The Soviet Socialist Republics in Revolt (New York: Harper & Row, 1979). Collins's paper is cited in Randall Collins and David Waller, 'What Theories Predicted the State Breakdowns and the Revolutions of the Soviet Bloc?' Research in Social Movements, Conflicts, and Change, 14 (1992), 31-47, at p. 34.
165. Helen d'Encausse, Decline of an Empire: The Soviet Socialist Republics in Revolt (New York: Harper & Row, 1979). Collins's paper is cited in Randall Collins and David Waller, 'What Theories Predicted the State Breakdowns and the Revolutions of the Soviet Bloc?' Research in Social Movements, Conflicts, and Change, 14 (1992), 31-47, at p. 34.
166. Collins and Waller, 'What Theories?' p. 33.
167. Wohlforth, 'Realism and the End of the Cold War', pp. 102-3.
168. Karl Deutsch et al., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1957); Emanual Adler and Michael Barnet, Pluralistic Security Communities: Past, Present and Future (Madison: University of Wisconsin, Global Studies Research Program, 1994); Alexander Wendt, 'Collective Identity Formation and the International State', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 384-98.
169. Karl Deutsch et al., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1957); Emanual Adler and Michael Barnet, Pluralistic Security Communities: Past, Present and Future (Madison: University of Wisconsin, Global Studies Research Program, 1994); Alexander Wendt, 'Collective Identity Formation and the International State', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 384-98.
170. Karl Deutsch et al., Political Community and the North Atlantic Area (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1957); Emanual Adler and Michael Barnet, Pluralistic Security Communities: Past, Present and Future (Madison: University of Wisconsin, Global Studies Research Program, 1994); Alexander Wendt, 'Collective Identity Formation and the International State', American Political Science Review, 88 (1994), 384-98.
171. Harvey Starr, 'Democracy and War: Choice, Learning and Security Communities', Journal of Peace Research, 29 (1992), 207-14, at p. 211.
172. Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman, War and Reason, pp. 248-9.
173. James Lee Ray, 'Promise or Peril? Neorealism, Neoliberalism, and the Future of International Politics', in Charles Kegley Jr, ed., Controversies in International Relations Theory (New York: St Martin's Press, 1995), p. 350. Interesting testimony regarding the logic of such a derivation from democratic peace theory can be found in a passage (first published in a 1987 article) by John Lewis Gaddis: 'Michael Doyle has recently pointed out [that] there is a historical basis for arguing that liberal democracies tend not to go to war with one another. This raises the question: could the extension of democracy - especially within the superpower that has not, until now, had much of it - bring an end to the Cold War? Stranger things have happened'. (See Gaddis, The united States and the End of the Cold War, p. 140.)
174. James Lee Ray, 'Promise or Peril? Neorealism, Neoliberalism, and the Future of International Politics', in Charles Kegley Jr, ed., Controversies in International Relations Theory (New York: St Martin's Press, 1995), p. 350.
175. 'The prospects for liberalization in the Soviet Union are complicated, because it is not just the matter of political control by the current leaders that is at issue - or even just the maintenance of Socialism vs. some restoration of capitalist institutions. The very unity of the USSR itself is at stake. A major barrier to liberalization of the Soviet government is the suppressed desire of ethnic groups or "nationalities" for self-determination. Liberalization could revive these potential separatist movements, bringing the potential fissioning of the world's last great colonial empire'. Both this passage and the one above are from Bruce Russett, 'Causes of Peace', in Caroline M. Stephenson, ed., Alternative Methods for International Security (Washington, DC: University Press of America, 1982), p. 191. Both repeat verbatim material that appeared in the more widely available book by Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics: The Menu for Choice (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1981), p. 442. Writing in mid-1988, he treated the key contingency as more plausible: 'As Soviet ideology and practice begins to shift, the distinction between ruling elites and their people loses some of its force. If both sides see each other as in some sense truly reflecting the consent of the governed, the transformation of international relations begins'. (Bruce Russett, 'Democracy and Peace', in Russett, Harvey Starr and Richard Stoll, eds, Choices in World Politics (New York: Freeman, 1989), p. 259.)
176. 'The prospects for liberalization in the Soviet Union are complicated, because it is not just the matter of political control by the current leaders that is at issue - or even just the maintenance of Socialism vs. some restoration of capitalist institutions. The very unity of the USSR itself is at stake. A major barrier to liberalization of the Soviet government is the suppressed desire of ethnic groups or "nationalities" for self-determination. Liberalization could revive these potential separatist movements, bringing the potential fissioning of the world's last great colonial empire'. Both this passage and the one above are from Bruce Russett, 'Causes of Peace', in Caroline M. Stephenson, ed., Alternative Methods for International Security (Washington, DC: University Press of America, 1982), p. 191. Both repeat verbatim material that appeared in the more widely available book by Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics: The Menu for Choice (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1981), p. 442. Writing in mid-1988, he treated the key contingency as more plausible: 'As Soviet ideology and practice begins to shift, the distinction between ruling elites and their people loses some of its force. If both sides see each other as in some sense truly reflecting the consent of the governed, the transformation of international relations begins'. (Bruce Russett, 'Democracy and Peace', in Russett, Harvey Starr and Richard Stoll, eds, Choices in World Politics (New York: Freeman, 1989), p. 259.)
177. 'The prospects for liberalization in the Soviet Union are complicated, because it is not just the matter of political control by the current leaders that is at issue - or even just the maintenance of Socialism vs. some restoration of capitalist institutions. The very unity of the USSR itself is at stake. A major barrier to liberalization of the Soviet government is the suppressed desire of ethnic groups or "nationalities" for self-determination. Liberalization could revive these potential separatist movements, bringing the potential fissioning of the world's last great colonial empire'. Both this passage and the one above are from Bruce Russett, 'Causes of Peace', in Caroline M. Stephenson, ed., Alternative Methods for International Security (Washington, DC: University Press of America, 1982), p. 191. Both repeat verbatim material that appeared in the more widely available book by Bruce Russett and Harvey Starr, World Politics: The Menu for Choice (San Francisco: W. H. Freeman, 1981), p. 442. Writing in mid-1988, he treated the key contingency as more plausible: 'As Soviet ideology and practice begins to shift, the distinction between ruling elites and their people loses some of its force. If both sides see each other as in some sense truly reflecting the consent of the governed, the transformation of international relations begins'. (Bruce Russett, 'Democracy and Peace', in Russett, Harvey Starr and Richard Stoll, eds, Choices in World Politics (New York: Freeman, 1989), p. 259.)
178. We believe this accurately characterizes many scholars cited here as ultimately contributing to the theory and evidence for the democratic peace, including Bremer, Bueno de Mesquita, Dixon, Maoz and Ray himself. Policy makers also were appropriately cautious both in taking up the democratic peace proposition and in applying it to the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, by April 1989 US Secretary of State James Baker was saying, 'And a kind of democratization - something, I think that's far from democracy, but, nevertheless, a kind of democratization, has begun', and GIST, an unauthored State Department publication which generally follows the tone and observations of high-ranking officials, said a month later that should moves towards internal democratization 'continue and become irreversible fact, the basic nature of the US-Soviet relationship could be altered profoundly, but we are not there yet' (US Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, S1.128: Un 5/2/1989) Both quotations are from Ann Mason, 'The End of Cold War Thinking: A Study of Change and Learning in Foreign Policy Belief Systems' (forthcoming doctoral dissertation for Yale University). By early 1992 Baker had thoroughly bought into the idea of a democratic peace with Russia (see Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, pp. 128-9). The late Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Affairs recently observed: 'One of the most powerful [propositions] to come out of international relations research in decades is the notion that democracies do not go to war with each other. This proposition has had a substantial impact on public policy ... There are very few propositions in international relations that can be articulated this cleanly and simply, but when you have one, you can really cut through the clutter of the bureaucratic process and make an impact' (Joseph Kruzel, 'More a Chasm Than a Gap, But Do Scholars Want to Bridge It?' Mershon International Studies Review, 38 (1994), 179-81, at p. 180).
179. We believe this accurately characterizes many scholars cited here as ultimately contributing to the theory and evidence for the democratic peace, including Bremer, Bueno de Mesquita, Dixon, Maoz and Ray himself. Policy makers also were appropriately cautious both in taking up the democratic peace proposition and in applying it to the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, by April 1989 US Secretary of State James Baker was saying, 'And a kind of democratization - something, I think that's far from democracy, but, nevertheless, a kind of democratization, has begun', and GIST, an unauthored State Department publication which generally follows the tone and observations of high-ranking officials, said a month later that should moves towards internal democratization 'continue and become irreversible fact, the basic nature of the US-Soviet relationship could be altered profoundly, but we are not there yet' (US Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, S1.128: Un 5/2/1989) Both quotations are from Ann Mason, 'The End of Cold War Thinking: A Study of Change and Learning in Foreign Policy Belief Systems' (forthcoming doctoral dissertation for Yale University). By early 1992 Baker had thoroughly bought into the idea of a democratic peace with Russia (see Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, pp. 128-9). The late Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Affairs recently observed: 'One of the most powerful [propositions] to come out of international relations research in decades is the notion that democracies do not go to war with each other. This proposition has had a substantial impact on public policy ... There are very few propositions in international relations that can be articulated this cleanly and simply, but when you have one, you can really cut through the clutter of the bureaucratic process and make an impact' (Joseph Kruzel, 'More a Chasm Than a Gap, But Do Scholars Want to Bridge It?' Mershon International Studies Review, 38 (1994), 179-81, at p. 180).
180. We believe this accurately characterizes many scholars cited here as ultimately contributing to the theory and evidence for the democratic peace, including Bremer, Bueno de Mesquita, Dixon, Maoz and Ray himself. Policy makers also were appropriately cautious both in taking up the democratic peace proposition and in applying it to the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, by April 1989 US Secretary of State James Baker was saying, 'And a kind of democratization - something, I think that's far from democracy, but, nevertheless, a kind of democratization, has begun', and GIST, an unauthored State Department publication which generally follows the tone and observations of high-ranking officials, said a month later that should moves towards internal democratization 'continue and become irreversible fact, the basic nature of the US-Soviet relationship could be altered profoundly, but we are not there yet' (US Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, S1.128: Un 5/2/1989) Both quotations are from Ann Mason, 'The End of Cold War Thinking: A Study of Change and Learning in Foreign Policy Belief Systems' (forthcoming doctoral dissertation for Yale University). By early 1992 Baker had thoroughly bought into the idea of a democratic peace with Russia (see Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace, pp. 128-9). The late Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Affairs recently observed: 'One of the most powerful [propositions] to come out of international relations research in decades is the notion that democracies do not go to war with each other. This proposition has had a substantial impact on public policy ... There are very few propositions in international relations that can be articulated this cleanly and simply, but when you have one, you can really cut through the clutter of the bureaucratic process and make an impact' (Joseph Kruzel, 'More a Chasm Than a Gap, But Do Scholars Want to Bridge It?' Mershon International Studies Review, 38 (1994), 179-81, at p. 180).
181. Puchala, 'Woe to the Orphans', p. 57.
182. One anonymous reviewer of this article argues that 'Wohlforth's realist account - that if a state perceives its power is radically declining it may retrench without resorting to conflict - the authors reject. Their own claim they call "conditional prediction". Wohlforth's assertion they call "ex post facto" explanation. What's the difference?' We feel there are three important differences. The first is that the predominant thrust of realism, as Wohlforth admits, leads to an expectation that the Cold War would end violently, even if, or perhaps especially if, the power or capability of one of the protagonists should change dramatically. The second is that Wohlforth's realist account depends on a change in the distribution of power between the United States and the Soviet Union which arguably occurred only after the end of the Cold War. It seems to us that political changes within the Soviet Union more clearly preceded a change in the Cold War relationship than did the change in the military - industrial capabilities of the Soviet Union. The final difference is that Wohlforth's explanation was offered after the end of the Cold War, while Russett's admittedly contingent assertion occurred well before the events of 1989 to 1991. That is a distinction of some importance. It might also be prudent to acknowledge here that the democratic peace proposition implies that political changes in Russia in the autocratic direction, which some current accounts suggest are already under way, would have negative effects on its relationship with the United States. (See Alessandra Stanley, 'Russia's new rulers govern, and live, in neo-Soviet style', New York Times, 23 May 1995, Section 1, pp. 1, 4.)
183. The formula on which these estimates are based can be found in Bueno de Mesquita, 'Political Forecasting: An Expected Utility Method,' p. 86.
184. Duncan Black, The Theory of Committees and Elections (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1958).