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Volumn 69, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 8-31

South Korea's foreign policy and future security: Implications of the nuclear standoff

(1)  Gurtov, Mel a  

a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPING COUNTRY; FOREIGN POLICY; FUTURE PROSPECT; GEOPOLITICAL RELATIONS; INTERNATIONAL DISPUTE; NUCLEAR STANDOFF; SECURITY THREAT;

EID: 0030477647     PISSN: 0030851X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2307/2760871     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (6)

References (95)
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    • note
    • Research on this article was accomplished under a Senior Fulbright Scholar award granted by the Korean-American Educational Commission in Seoul.
  • 2
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    • How Much Plutonium Does North Korea Have?
    • September-October
    • For excellent summaries of the available information on North Korea's nuclear program, see David Albright, "How Much Plutonium Does North Korea Have?" The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (September-October 1994), pp. 46-53; and Kongdan Oh and Ralph C. Hassig, "North Korea's Nuclear Program," in Young Whan Kihl, ed., Korea and the World: Beyond the Cold War (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 233-50.
    • (1994) The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists , pp. 46-53
    • Albright, D.1
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    • North Korea's Nuclear Program
    • Young Whan Kihl, ed., Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press
    • For excellent summaries of the available information on North Korea's nuclear program, see David Albright, "How Much Plutonium Does North Korea Have?" The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (September-October 1994), pp. 46-53; and Kongdan Oh and Ralph C. Hassig, "North Korea's Nuclear Program," in Young Whan Kihl, ed., Korea and the World: Beyond the Cold War (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1994), pp. 233-50.
    • (1994) Korea and the World: Beyond the Cold War , pp. 233-250
    • Oh, K.1    Hassig, R.C.2
  • 4
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    • The Diplomatic Dimensions of the Korean Confrontation
    • Sheldon W. Simon, ed., Armond, N.Y.: Sharpe
    • On developments in the late 1980s and early 1990s, see Edward A. Olsen, "The Diplomatic Dimensions of the Korean Confrontation," in Sheldon W. Simon, ed., East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era (Armond, N.Y.: Sharpe, 1993), pp. 89-96; Chalmers Johnson, "South Korean Democratization: The Role of Economic Development," The Pacific Review, vol. 2, no. 1 (1989), pp. 1-10; and Dan C. Sanford, "ROK's Nordpolitik: Revisited," The Journal of East Asian Affairs, vol.7, no. 1 (Winter/Spring 1993), pp. 1-31.
    • (1993) East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era , pp. 89-96
    • Olsen, E.A.1
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    • South Korean Democratization: The Role of Economic Development
    • On developments in the late 1980s and early 1990s, see Edward A. Olsen, "The Diplomatic Dimensions of the Korean Confrontation," in Sheldon W. Simon, ed., East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era (Armond, N.Y.: Sharpe, 1993), pp. 89-96; Chalmers Johnson, "South Korean Democratization: The Role of Economic Development," The Pacific Review, vol. 2, no. 1 (1989), pp. 1-10; and Dan C. Sanford, "ROK's Nordpolitik: Revisited," The Journal of East Asian Affairs, vol.7, no. 1 (Winter/Spring 1993), pp. 1-31.
    • (1989) The Pacific Review , vol.2 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-10
    • Johnson, C.1
  • 6
    • 85048901532 scopus 로고
    • ROK's Nordpolitik: Revisited
    • Winter/Spring
    • On developments in the late 1980s and early 1990s, see Edward A. Olsen, "The Diplomatic Dimensions of the Korean Confrontation," in Sheldon W. Simon, ed., East Asian Security in the Post-Cold War Era (Armond, N.Y.: Sharpe, 1993), pp. 89-96; Chalmers Johnson, "South Korean Democratization: The Role of Economic Development," The Pacific Review, vol. 2, no. 1 (1989), pp. 1-10; and Dan C. Sanford, "ROK's Nordpolitik: Revisited," The Journal of East Asian Affairs, vol.7, no. 1 (Winter/Spring 1993), pp. 1-31.
    • (1993) The Journal of East Asian Affairs , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-31
    • Sanford, D.C.1
  • 7
    • 6244305134 scopus 로고
    • See Roh's July 7, 1988 "declaration for national unification," and his speech before the UN General Assembly on October 18, 1988, both in Korean Journal of International Studies, vol. 19, no. 4 (1988), pp. 608-22.
    • (1988) Korean Journal of International Studies , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 608-622
  • 8
    • 6244232409 scopus 로고
    • North Korea Braves a New World
    • Donald N. Clark, ed., Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press
    • See Kongdan Oh, "North Korea Braves a New World," in Donald N. Clark, ed., Korea Briefing, 1992 (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1992), p. 37.
    • (1992) Korea Briefing, 1992 , pp. 37
    • Oh, K.1
  • 10
    • 6244247082 scopus 로고
    • Spring-Summer
    • Texts in Asian Perspective, vol. 16, no. 1 (Spring-Summer 1992), pp. 157-62.
    • (1992) Asian Perspective , vol.16 , Issue.1 , pp. 157-162
  • 11
    • 6244278497 scopus 로고
    • North Korea: The Present and the Future
    • Summer
    • Suh Dae-sook, "North Korea: The Present and the Future," The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, vol. 5, no. 1 (Summer 1993), pp. 73-74.
    • (1993) The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis , vol.5 , Issue.1 , pp. 73-74
    • Dae-sook, S.1
  • 12
    • 6244278499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • In the July 7 Declaration he promised "to cooperate with North Korea in its efforts to improve relations with countries friendly to us including the United States and Japan." And in his UN speech, Roh said a "durable peace" required not only North-South rapprochement, but also that both Koreas "build and maintain more rational and normal relations with all the nations that have interests in peace on the Korean peninsula."
  • 13
    • 6244227781 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See Sanford "Nordpolitik," p. 14 and Suh "North Korea," p. 74. Suh argues that "South Korea should have postponed its negotiations with China to normalize diplomatic relations, or urged Japan to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea." Instead, "Ron's government was calculating the time until the collapse of the North Korean regime, and applied relentless pressure to open up North Korean society, trying to embarrass North Korea for its economic backwardness."
    • Nordpolitik , pp. 14
    • Sanford1
  • 14
    • 6244296797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See Sanford "Nordpolitik," p. 14 and Suh "North Korea," p. 74. Suh argues that "South Korea should have postponed its negotiations with China to normalize diplomatic relations, or urged Japan to establish diplomatic relations with North Korea." Instead, "Ron's government was calculating the time until the collapse of the North Korean regime, and applied relentless pressure to open up North Korean society, trying to embarrass North Korea for its economic backwardness."
    • North Korea , pp. 74
    • Suh1
  • 15
    • 6244236082 scopus 로고
    • The Two Koreas and Rapprochement: Foundations for Progress?
    • James Cotton, "The Two Koreas and Rapprochement: Foundations for Progress?" The Pacific Review, vol. 5, no. 2 (1992), pp. 163-64.
    • (1992) The Pacific Review , vol.5 , Issue.2 , pp. 163-164
    • Cotton, J.1
  • 16
    • 6244296797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Suh, "North Korea", pp. 65-66, 75-76; Selig S. Harrison, "Breaking the Nuclear Impasse: Paths to Cooperative Security in Korea," Evolving Multilateral Security Regime in Northeast Asia (Seoul: Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, 1994), pp. 85-87. Suh specifically has in mind the administration of Premier Yon Hyong Muk, from December 1988 to December 1992. Harrison emphasizes the window of opportunity from December 1991, when North Korean reformers Von a conditional victory" at a Workers Party Central Committee meeting, to mid-1992, when the IAEA's leadership concluded that North Korea had violated the safeguards agreement.
    • North Korea , pp. 65-66
    • Suh1
  • 17
    • 6244265376 scopus 로고
    • Breaking the Nuclear Impasse: Paths to Cooperative Security in Korea
    • Seoul: Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security
    • Suh, "North Korea", pp. 65-66, 75-76; Selig S. Harrison, "Breaking the Nuclear Impasse: Paths to Cooperative Security in Korea," Evolving Multilateral Security Regime in Northeast Asia (Seoul: Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, 1994), pp. 85-87. Suh specifically has in mind the administration of Premier Yon Hyong Muk, from December 1988 to December 1992. Harrison emphasizes the window of opportunity from December 1991, when North Korean reformers Von a conditional victory" at a Workers Party Central Committee meeting, to mid-1992, when the IAEA's leadership concluded that North Korea had violated the safeguards agreement.
    • (1994) Evolving Multilateral Security Regime in Northeast Asia , pp. 85-87
    • Harrison, S.S.1
  • 19
    • 84928441673 scopus 로고
    • North Korea and the Bomb
    • Summer
    • In fact, in September 1990 the North Korean foreign ministry had warned Soviet foreign minister Eduard Shevardnadze during his visit to Pyongyang that if the USSR recognized South Korea, Pyongyang would have to develop its own deterrent. When recognition occurred, North Korea announced it would have to "provide...for ourselves some weapons for which we have so far relied on the alliance." Andrew Mack, "North Korea and the Bomb," Foreign Policy, no. 83 (Summer 1991), p. 89.
    • (1991) Foreign Policy , Issue.83 , pp. 89
    • Mack, A.1
  • 21
    • 6244221194 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mack, "North Korea," p. 91; Harrison "Nuclear Impasse," p. 91.
    • North Korea , pp. 91
    • Mack1
  • 23
    • 6244305129 scopus 로고
    • The Inter-Korean Agreement of 1972 and 1992: A Comparative Assessment
    • Fall
    • On the rough equality of the 1970s, see Byung Chul Koh, "The Inter-Korean Agreement of 1972 and 1992: A Comparative Assessment," Korea and World Affairs, vol. 16, no. 3 (Fall 1992), p. 465. Figures on the recent years are from Il SaKong, Korea in the World Economy (Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1993), p. 178 and tables A.4 and A.5, pp. 226-29.
    • (1992) Korea and World Affairs , vol.16 , Issue.3 , pp. 465
    • Byung, C.K.1
  • 24
    • 0003779648 scopus 로고
    • Washington: Institute for International Economics, tables A.4 and A.5, pp. 226-29
    • On the rough equality of the 1970s, see Byung Chul Koh, "The Inter-Korean Agreement of 1972 and 1992: A Comparative Assessment," Korea and World Affairs, vol. 16, no. 3 (Fall 1992), p. 465. Figures on the recent years are from Il SaKong, Korea in the World Economy (Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1993), p. 178 and tables A.4 and A.5, pp. 226-29.
    • (1993) Korea in the World Economy , pp. 178
    • Il, S.1
  • 25
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    • June 11
    • Korea Times, June 11, 1994, p. 8. On the general state of the North Korean economy at that time, see John Merrill, "North Korea in 1993: In the Eye of the Storm," Asian Survey, vol. 34, no. 1 (January 1994), pp. 14-16.
    • (1994) Korea Times , pp. 8
  • 26
    • 84968265144 scopus 로고
    • North Korea in 1993: In the Eye of the Storm
    • January
    • Korea Times, June 11, 1994, p. 8. On the general state of the North Korean economy at that time, see John Merrill, "North Korea in 1993: In the Eye of the Storm," Asian Survey, vol. 34, no. 1 (January 1994), pp. 14-16.
    • (1994) Asian Survey , vol.34 , Issue.1 , pp. 14-16
    • Merrill, J.1
  • 27
    • 6244223498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mack, "North Korea and the Bomb," p. 94; Kongdan Oh and Ralph C. Hassig, "The North Korean Bomb and Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia," Asian Perspective, vol. 19, no. 2 (Fall-Winter 1995), pp. 153-74.
    • North Korea and the Bomb , pp. 94
    • Mack1
  • 28
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    • The North Korean Bomb and Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia
    • Fall-Winter
    • Mack, "North Korea and the Bomb," p. 94; Kongdan Oh and Ralph C. Hassig, "The North Korean Bomb and Nuclear Proliferation in Northeast Asia," Asian Perspective, vol. 19, no. 2 (Fall-Winter 1995), pp. 153-74.
    • (1995) Asian Perspective , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 153-174
    • Oh, K.1    Hassig, R.C.2
  • 29
    • 6244232133 scopus 로고
    • The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula
    • April
    • Besides "North Korea and the Bomb" previously cited, see Mack's "The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula," Asian Survey, vol. 33, no. 4 (April 1993), pp. 339-59.
    • (1993) Asian Survey , vol.33 , Issue.4 , pp. 339-359
    • Mack1
  • 30
    • 6244306118 scopus 로고
    • summary of a conference on June 28-29, (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies)
    • Carter further reported his belief that what the DPRK specifically wanted by way of denuclearizing the peninsula also included no tactical nuclear weapons on the peninsula and no nuclear reprocessing by either Korea. See The Crisis on the Korean Peninsula, summary of a conference on June 28-29, 1994 (Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies), p. 2.
    • (1994) The Crisis on the Korean Peninsula , pp. 2
  • 31
    • 6244252552 scopus 로고
    • Current Issues in Inter-Korean Arms Control and Disarmament Talks
    • Tae-Hwan Kwak, "Current Issues in Inter-Korean Arms Control and Disarmament Talks," The Korean Journal of National Unification, vol. 2 (1993), pp. 196-97.
    • (1993) The Korean Journal of National Unification , vol.2 , pp. 196-197
    • Kwak, T.-H.1
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    • Summer
    • The joint statement put these assurances in terms of support by both sides for several "principles" (text of the DPRK-U.S. statement in Korean Journal of International Studies, vol. 24, no. 2 ([Summer 1993], p. 265). In July, both sides "reaffirmed" their commitment to the "principles, "to "full and impartial application of IAEA safeguards," and to implementation of the North-South accords. The United States promised to explore ways of replacing North Korea's graphite-moderated nuclear reactors with light-water reactors once the nuclear issue was resolved (joint statement of July 19, 1993; text in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 3 ([Fall, 1993], pp. 548-49).
    • (1993) Korean Journal of International Studies , vol.24 , Issue.2 , pp. 265
  • 33
    • 6244293021 scopus 로고
    • Fall
    • The joint statement put these assurances in terms of support by both sides for several "principles" (text of the DPRK-U.S. statement in Korean Journal of International Studies, vol. 24, no. 2 ([Summer 1993], p. 265). In July, both sides "reaffirmed" their commitment to the "principles, "to "full and impartial application of IAEA safeguards," and to implementation of the North-South accords. The United States promised to explore ways of replacing North Korea's graphite-moderated nuclear reactors with light-water reactors once the nuclear issue was resolved (joint statement of July 19, 1993; text in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 3 ([Fall, 1993], pp. 548-49).
    • (1993) Korea and World Affairs , vol.17 , Issue.3 , pp. 548-549
  • 34
    • 6244255803 scopus 로고
    • Summer
    • In his first major speech to introduce "new diplomacy," Kim said that Korea's foreign policy would henceforth be "open and global" rather than be "a hostage of inter-Korean competition," that is, focused exclusively on the Korean peninsula, the Northeast Asia region, and the bilateral security arrangement with the United States. He spoke of national reconciliation with national unification, involvement in regional security cooperation, and "resolving global problems such as poverty" (speech at the Leaders Forum of the 26th PBEC International General Meeting, Seoul, May 24, 1993, in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2 [Summer 1993], pp. 343-47). Korea's foreign minister, Han Sung-joo, who seems really to have been the architect of "new diplomacy," elaborated on the theme a week later. See "Fundamentals of Korea's New Diplomacy," speech of May 13, 1993; text ibid., pp. 227-45.
    • (1993) Korea and World Affairs , vol.17 , Issue.2 , pp. 343-347
  • 35
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    • speech of May 13
    • In his first major speech to introduce "new diplomacy," Kim said that Korea's foreign policy would henceforth be "open and global" rather than be "a hostage of inter-Korean competition," that is, focused exclusively on the Korean peninsula, the Northeast Asia region, and the bilateral security arrangement with the United States. He spoke of national reconciliation with national unification, involvement in regional security cooperation, and "resolving global problems such as poverty" (speech at the Leaders Forum of the 26th PBEC International General Meeting, Seoul, May 24, 1993, in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2 [Summer 1993], pp. 343-47). Korea's foreign minister, Han Sung-joo, who seems really to have been the architect of "new diplomacy," elaborated on the theme a week later. See "Fundamentals of Korea's New Diplomacy," speech of May 13, 1993; text ibid., pp. 227-45.
    • (1993) Fundamentals of Korea's New Diplomacy
  • 36
    • 6244257357 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In his first major speech to introduce "new diplomacy," Kim said that Korea's foreign policy would henceforth be "open and global" rather than be "a hostage of inter-Korean competition," that is, focused exclusively on the Korean peninsula, the Northeast Asia region, and the bilateral security arrangement with the United States. He spoke of national reconciliation with national unification, involvement in regional security cooperation, and "resolving global problems such as poverty" (speech at the Leaders Forum of the 26th PBEC International General Meeting, Seoul, May 24, 1993, in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2 [Summer 1993], pp. 343-47). Korea's foreign minister, Han Sung-joo, who seems really to have been the architect of "new diplomacy," elaborated on the theme a week later. See "Fundamentals of Korea's New Diplomacy," speech of May 13, 1993; text ibid., pp. 227-45.
    • Fundamentals of Korea's New Diplomacy , pp. 227-245
  • 37
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    • Nuclear Weapons and State Survival in North Korea
    • Autumn
    • Paul Bracken, "Nuclear Weapons and State Survival in North Korea," Survival, vol. 35, no. 3 (Autumn 1993), pp. 147-48.
    • (1993) Survival , vol.35 , Issue.3 , pp. 147-148
    • Bracken, P.1
  • 39
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    • Three-Phase Unification Formula for Building Korean National Community
    • speech of August 15, 1994, July-August
    • Kim Young Sam, "Three-Phase Unification Formula for Building Korean National Community," speech of August 15, 1994, in Korea Focus, vol. 2, no. 4 (July-August, 1994), p. 174. Parenthetically, this concept brought Kim into line with the longstanding three-stage proposal of Kim Dae Jung, South Korea's foremost opposition leader and a probable presidential candidate in 1997. See, for example, Kim Dae Jung's speech of March 22, 1995 in Seoul, "How Should We Solve InterKorean Problems?" mimeo.
    • (1994) Korea Focus , vol.2 , Issue.4 , pp. 174
    • Kim, Y.S.1
  • 40
    • 6244257358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • speech of March 22, 1995 in Seoul, mimeo
    • Kim Young Sam, "Three-Phase Unification Formula for Building Korean National Community," speech of August 15, 1994, in Korea Focus, vol. 2, no. 4 (July-August, 1994), p. 174. Parenthetically, this concept brought Kim into line with the longstanding three-stage proposal of Kim Dae Jung, South Korea's foremost opposition leader and a probable presidential candidate in 1997. See, for example, Kim Dae Jung's speech of March 22, 1995 in Seoul, "How Should We Solve InterKorean Problems?" mimeo.
    • How Should We Solve InterKorean Problems?
    • Kim, D.J.1
  • 41
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    • April 26
    • Business contacts between the two sides did in fact occur even at the height of the nuclear tensions in the first half of 1994. See Korea Times, April 26, 1994 and Korea Herald. May 4, 1994.
    • (1994) Korea Times
  • 42
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    • May 4
    • Business contacts between the two sides did in fact occur even at the height of the nuclear tensions in the first half of 1994. See Korea Times, April 26, 1994 and Korea Herald. May 4, 1994.
    • (1994) Korea Herald
  • 44
    • 6244278498 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • In December 1995, the UNDP announced that five of the six participating states (Japan was the exception) had signed three agreements to promote trade, investment, and environmental sustainability in the Tumen River area. North Korea's participation was noteworthy, but the extent of any new financing was not revealed.
  • 45
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    • Seoul's Big Fear: Pushing North Koreans Too Far
    • November 7
    • David E. Sanger, "Seoul's Big Fear: Pushing North Koreans Too Far," New York Times, November 7, 1993, p. Al. Also see Sanger, "U.S. Delay Urged on Korea Sanction," New York Times, November 4, 1993. p. Al.
    • (1993) New York Times
    • Sanger, D.E.1
  • 46
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    • U.S. Delay Urged on Korea Sanction
    • November 4
    • David E. Sanger, "Seoul's Big Fear: Pushing North Koreans Too Far," New York Times, November 7, 1993, p. Al. Also see Sanger, "U.S. Delay Urged on Korea Sanction," New York Times, November 4, 1993. p. Al.
    • (1993) New York Times
    • Sanger1
  • 47
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    • note
    • Information here and elsewhere in the paragraph is based on daily press reports by the Korea Times and Korea Herald in Seoul, where the author was doing research from January through June, 1994.
  • 48
    • 6244263294 scopus 로고
    • Opinion Survey on Unification Issues
    • July
    • Research Institute for National Unification, "Opinion Survey on Unification Issues," in Korea Focus, vol. 1, no. 4 (July 1993), pp. 47-52. Polls showed the public strongly believed that the North was developing nuclear weapons, but almost as strongly wanted to treat the North as brethren in need of economic and other support. They found, not surprisingly, that the younger and better educated the respondent, the greater the support for nonconfrontational policies toward North Korea.
    • (1993) Korea Focus , vol.1 , Issue.4 , pp. 47-52
  • 49
  • 50
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    • Summer
    • When, for example, North Korea suspended withdrawal from the NPT, Kim urged Washington not to reward it, "I also do not think the United States should make any further concessions to North Korea," he said (BBC-TV interview in London, June 25, 1993, in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2 [Summer 1993], p. 373). In fact, Kim Young Sam was frequently criticized from the right in the first two years of his administration for appointing "inexperienced" professors (some of whom were said to be too soft on North Korea) to sensitive national-security positions.
    • (1993) Korea and World Affairs , vol.17 , Issue.2 , pp. 373
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    • 0004047063 scopus 로고
    • October 8
    • New York Times, October 8, 1994, p. 3.
    • (1994) New York Times , pp. 3
  • 52
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    • The Man Who Would Be Kim
    • November-December
    • See Byung-joon Ahn, "The Man Who Would Be Kim," Foreign Affairs, vol. 73, no. 6 (November-December 1994), p. 104.
    • (1994) Foreign Affairs , vol.73 , Issue.6 , pp. 104
    • Ahn, B.-J.1
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    • No Compromise
    • April 14
    • U.S. State Department specialists reportedly doubted China's ability to sway Pyongyang anyway. Susumu Awanohara, with Shim Jae Hoon, "No Compromise," Far Eastern Economic Review, April 14, 1994, pp. 17-18.
    • (1994) Far Eastern Economic Review , pp. 17-18
    • Shim, J.H.1
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    • Silent Partner
    • December 29, 1994/January 5
    • The delivery was to culminate a deal struck in 1991, with a value of $4 billion (interview with Georgi Kunadze, Russian ambassador to Seoul, reported by Shim Jae Hoon, "Silent Partner," Far Eastern Economic Review, December 29, 1994/January 5, 1995, p. 14).
    • (1995) Far Eastern Economic Review , pp. 14
    • Shim, J.H.1
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    • June 3
    • Korea Herald, June 3, 1994, pp. 2 and 5. During 1995, the Russian government indicated that the defense treaty had indeed been scrapped and that it was seeking to replace it with an agreement on cooperative relations such as Moscow has with Seoul.
    • (1994) Korea Herald , pp. 2
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    • Washington, D.C.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
    • Stephen J. Blank, Russian Policy and the Korean Crisis (Washington, D.C.: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1994), pp. 13-14.
    • (1994) Russian Policy and the Korean Crisis , pp. 13-14
    • Blank, S.J.1
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    • Russia and Korean Unification
    • Fall-Winter
    • According to one senior Russian specialist on North Korea, Russia has returned to a more "equidistant" policy towards the two Koreas and has even adopted a conception of Korea as constituting part of Russia's "near-abroad." See Alexander Zhebin, "Russia and Korean Unification," Asian Perspective, vol. 19, no. 2 (Fall-Winter 1995), pp. 175-90.
    • (1995) Asian Perspective , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 175-190
    • Zhebin, A.1
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    • North Korea is Collecting Millions from Koreans Who Live in Japan
    • November 1
    • David E. Sanger, "North Korea is Collecting Millions from Koreans Who Live in Japan," New York Times. November 1, 1993, p. Al.
    • (1993) New York Times
    • Sanger, D.E.1
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    • The Two Koreas and World Order
    • Kihl, ed.
    • "Common security" is a concept that challenges cold-war era (realist) security frameworks based mainly on military power and adversarial relationships. In their place, common security emphasizes nonmilitary, cooperative paths to security based on the interconnectedness of peoples and the interdependence of environmental, economic, and other post-cold war systems. For discussion in the context of Korean and Asian security issues, see Samuel S. Kim, "The Two Koreas and World Order," in Kihl, ed., Korea and the World, pp. 56-61, and Andrew Mack and Pauline Kerr, "The Evolving Security Discourse in the Asia-Pacific," The Washington Quarterly, vol. 18, no. 1 (Winter 1995), pp. 123-40.
    • Korea and the World , pp. 56-61
    • Kim, S.S.1
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    • The Evolving Security Discourse in the Asia-Pacific
    • Winter
    • "Common security" is a concept that challenges cold-war era (realist) security frameworks based mainly on military power and adversarial relationships. In their place, common security emphasizes nonmilitary, cooperative paths to security based on the interconnectedness of peoples and the interdependence of environmental, economic, and other post-cold war systems. For discussion in the context of Korean and Asian security issues, see Samuel S. Kim, "The Two Koreas and World Order," in Kihl, ed., Korea and the World, pp. 56-61, and Andrew Mack and Pauline Kerr, "The Evolving Security Discourse in the Asia-Pacific," The Washington Quarterly, vol. 18, no. 1 (Winter 1995), pp. 123-40.
    • (1995) The Washington Quarterly , vol.18 , Issue.1 , pp. 123-140
    • Mack, A.1    Kerr, P.2
  • 62
    • 6244242277 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The ARF was established in July 1993 and held its first meeting one year later. It represents the first region-wide forum specifically dedicated to political and security cooperation. ARF members are the ASEAN Seven (Thailand, Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Vietnam), the seven "dialogue partners" of the ASEAN (the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Japan, the European Community, and South Korea), and Russia, China, Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, and Laos.
  • 63
    • 0039161978 scopus 로고
    • April 20
    • U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Winston Lord is the U.S. official; see Korea Herald, April 20, 1994, p. 2 Russian Minister of Defense Pavel Grachev reportedly endorsed the idea of a six-nation security discussion group while visiting with his Chinese counterpart, Chi Haotian, in May 1995 (ITAR-TASS report of May 16; NAPSNet on-line, May 24, 1995).
    • (1994) Korea Herald , pp. 2
  • 64
    • 79957487314 scopus 로고
    • Prospects for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region
    • July 11-17
    • See, for example, Guo Zhenyuan, "Prospects for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region," Beijing Review, no. 28 (July 11-17, 1994), pp. 20-22.
    • (1994) Beijing Review , Issue.28 , pp. 20-22
    • Guo, Z.1
  • 65
    • 6244225583 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidently, doubts about the U.S. commitment to South Korea's defense have already been raised since the October 1994 U.S.-DPRK agreement: see Ahn, "The Man Who Would be Kim," p. 105.
    • The Man Who Would Be Kim , pp. 105
    • Ahn1
  • 66
    • 6244239717 scopus 로고
    • Prospects for Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangular Security Relations
    • Manwoo Lee and Richard W. Mansbach, eds., Seoul: Institute for Far Eastern Studies and Westview
    • On the NFZ, see my "Prospects for Korea-U.S.-Japan Triangular Security Relations," in Manwoo Lee and Richard W. Mansbach, eds., The Changing Order in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula (Seoul: Institute for Far Eastern Studies and Westview, 1993), pp. 126-28.
    • (1993) The Changing Order in Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula , pp. 126-128
  • 67
    • 6244229471 scopus 로고
    • The North Korean Nuclear Crisis
    • September
    • Japan's ability to acquire plutonium for several years with advance U.S. approval has created a double standard, since the United States has insisted that the DPRK and the ROK abandon or not acquire plutonium and plutonium reprocessing facilities. (The North-South accord of 1991 prohibits nuclear reprocessing, but not the acquisition of the means of reprocessing.) The appropriate single standard ought to be a ban on trade in plutonium for all parties. See Paul Leventhal and Steven Dolley, "The North Korean Nuclear Crisis," Medicine & Global Survival, vol. 1, no. 3 (September 1994), pp. 172-73.
    • (1994) Medicine & Global Survival , vol.1 , Issue.3 , pp. 172-173
    • Leventhal, P.1    Dolley, S.2
  • 68
    • 6244244228 scopus 로고
    • U.S. Officials Question South Korea Readiness to Fight off the North
    • January 17
    • Steve Glain, "U.S. Officials Question South Korea Readiness to Fight Off the North," Wall Street Journal, January 17, 1995, p. 1.
    • (1995) Wall Street Journal , pp. 1
    • Glain, S.1
  • 69
    • 0010723888 scopus 로고
    • The Conventional Military Balance in Korea
    • (M.I.T.), spring
    • See Nick Beldecos and Eric Heginbotham, "The Conventional Military Balance in Korea," Breakthroughs (M.I.T.), vol. 6, no. 1 (spring 1995), pp. 1-8. The Pentagon's report of early 1995, which announced a hold on 100,000 soldiers in East Asia, reaffirmed plans to "shift from a leading to a supporting role" in South Korea, (Washington Post, February 28, 1995, p. A10). On the need for a truly post-cold war U.S. policy in Asia that embraces disengagement, see Edward A. Olsen, "A New American Strategy in Asia?" Asian Survey, vol. 31, no. 12 (December 1991), esp. pp. 1152-53.
    • (1995) Breakthroughs , vol.6 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-8
    • Beldecos, N.1    Heginbotham, E.2
  • 70
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    • February 28
    • See Nick Beldecos and Eric Heginbotham, "The Conventional Military Balance in Korea," Breakthroughs (M.I.T.), vol. 6, no. 1 (spring 1995), pp. 1-8. The Pentagon's report of early 1995, which announced a hold on 100,000 soldiers in East Asia, reaffirmed plans to "shift from a leading to a supporting role" in South Korea, (Washington Post, February 28, 1995, p. A10). On the need for a truly post-cold war U.S. policy in Asia that embraces disengagement, see Edward A. Olsen, "A New American Strategy in Asia?" Asian Survey, vol. 31, no. 12 (December 1991), esp. pp. 1152-53.
    • (1995) Washington Post
  • 71
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    • A New American Strategy in Asia?
    • December
    • See Nick Beldecos and Eric Heginbotham, "The Conventional Military Balance in Korea," Breakthroughs (M.I.T.), vol. 6, no. 1 (spring 1995), pp. 1-8. The Pentagon's report of early 1995, which announced a hold on 100,000 soldiers in East Asia, reaffirmed plans to "shift from a leading to a supporting role" in South Korea, (Washington Post, February 28, 1995, p. A10). On the need for a truly post-cold war U.S. policy in Asia that embraces disengagement, see Edward A. Olsen, "A New American Strategy in Asia?" Asian Survey, vol. 31, no. 12 (December 1991), esp. pp. 1152-53.
    • (1991) Asian Survey , vol.31 , Issue.12 , pp. 1152-1153
    • Olsen, E.A.1
  • 72
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    • The New International Order and Arms Control in Northeast Asia: A Korean Perspective
    • Liao Kuang-sheng, ed., Hong Kong: Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese University of Hong Kong
    • Officials of the United States (e.g., Secretary of State James Baker), South Korea (President Roh), and other governments (but not China's or North Korea's) have at various times supported the two-plus-four idea. See Gurtov, op. cit. and Seo-hang Lee, "The New International Order and Arms Control in Northeast Asia: A Korean Perspective," in Liao Kuang-sheng, ed., The New International Order in East Asia (Hong Kong: Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1993), pp. 77-78.
    • (1993) The New International Order in East Asia , pp. 77-78
    • Lee, S.-H.1
  • 73
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    • Yanking the Armistice
    • May 18
    • Since withdrawing from the Military Armistice Commission in April 1994, North Korea has taken further unilateral steps to erode the authority of the 1953 armistice arrangements and to force the issue of a separate peace with the United States. During early 1995 North Korea proposed bilateral talks with the United States on military affairs, removed Poland from the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission, and sealed off its side of the DMZ occupied by the commission. See Shim Jae Hoon and Nigel Holloway, "Yanking the Armistice," Far Eastern Economic Review, May 18, 1995, pp. 14-15.
    • (1995) Far Eastern Economic Review , pp. 14-15
    • Shim, J.H.1    Holloway, N.2
  • 74
    • 6244270850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conventional Arms Control for Korea: A Proposed Approach
    • winter
    • James Wendt, "Conventional Arms Control for Korea: A Proposed Approach," Survival, vol. 34, no. 4 (winter, 1992-93), pp. 108-24. For a review of North Korean proposals, see Kwak, "Current Issues," pp. 178-87.
    • (1992) Survival , vol.34 , Issue.4 , pp. 108-124
    • Wendt, J.1
  • 75
    • 6244270850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • James Wendt, "Conventional Arms Control for Korea: A Proposed Approach," Survival, vol. 34, no. 4 (winter, 1992-93), pp. 108-24. For a review of North Korean proposals, see Kwak, "Current Issues," pp. 178-87.
    • Current Issues , pp. 178-187
    • Kwak1
  • 77
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    • Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States after the Post-Cold War
    • winter
    • On possible incentives for a unified Korea to possess a nuclear deterrent, such as to replace U.S. forces and deter Japan, see Richard K. Betts, "Wealth, Power, and Instability: East Asia and the United States After the Post-Cold War," International Security, vol. 18, no. 3 (winter 1993/94), pp. 66-67.
    • (1993) International Security , vol.18 , Issue.3 , pp. 66-67
    • Betts, R.K.1
  • 79
    • 6244281940 scopus 로고
    • Summer
    • See the ten-point unification program of the DPRK People's Assembly, April 7, 1993, in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2 (Summer 1993), pp. 374-76. On differences in the unification plans of the two Koreas, see B.C. Koh, "A Comparison of Unification Policies," in Kihl, ed., Korea and the World, pp. 153-65.
    • (1993) Korea and World Affairs , vol.17 , Issue.2 , pp. 374-376
  • 80
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    • A Comparison of Unification Policies
    • Kihl, ed.
    • See the ten-point unification program of the DPRK People's Assembly, April 7, 1993, in Korea and World Affairs, vol. 17, no. 2 (Summer 1993), pp. 374-76. On differences in the unification plans of the two Koreas, see B.C. Koh, "A Comparison of Unification Policies," in Kihl, ed., Korea and the World, pp. 153-65.
    • Korea and the World , pp. 153-165
    • Koh, B.C.1
  • 81
    • 6244306117 scopus 로고
    • South Korea's Unification Policy in a New International Environment
    • September-October
    • Rhee Sang-woo, "South Korea's Unification Policy in a New International Environment," Korea Focus, vol. 2, no. 5 (September-October 1994), pp. 32-40.
    • (1994) Korea Focus , vol.2 , Issue.5 , pp. 32-40
    • Rhee, S.-W.1
  • 82
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    • February 25
    • See Korea Herald, February 25, 1995, p. 8 (a survey which showed that 80 percent of 104 enterprises in South Korea said they plan to invest in the North upon resolution of the nuclear situation), and Far Eastern Economic Review, November 17, 1994, p. 86. The first reported South Korean joint venture in the North, by the Daewoo Group, was in May 1995. It involved light industrial factories for clothing and other items (Reuters, Seoul, May 17, 1995; NAPSNet on-line, same date).
    • (1995) Korea Herald , pp. 8
  • 83
    • 0005974836 scopus 로고
    • November 17
    • See Korea Herald, February 25, 1995, p. 8 (a survey which showed that 80 percent of 104 enterprises in South Korea said they plan to invest in the North upon resolution of the nuclear situation), and Far Eastern Economic Review, November 17, 1994, p. 86. The first reported South Korean joint venture in the North, by the Daewoo Group, was in May 1995. It involved light industrial factories for clothing and other items (Reuters, Seoul, May 17, 1995; NAPSNet on-line, same date).
    • (1994) Far Eastern Economic Review , pp. 86
  • 84
    • 6244305130 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • KEDO was established by U.S.-DPRK agreement on June 13, 1995 following discussions in Kuala Lumpur. While the United States is designated as the "principal point of contact" in the supply of LWRs to North Korea, KEDO announced that a South Korean reactor would be the type to be constructed and that a South Korean firm would be the prime contractor. The agreement paved the way for South Korean engineers to go to the North in order to conduct site surveys prior to construction. Texts of the bilateral agreement and related announcements are in NAPSNet on-line special release, June 13, 1995.
  • 86
  • 87
    • 0004047063 scopus 로고
    • December 22
    • See New York Times, December 22, 1994, p. A4 on U.S. official's speculation concerning North Korea's slow handling of the U.S. helicopter incident. Don Oberdorfer ("The Silence of a Strange Land," Washington Post, February 5, 1995, p. Cl), based on interviews on Pyongyang, concluded that Kim Jong Il overrode objections from the North Korean military to the Agreed Framework and the release of the U.S. helicopter pilot.
    • (1994) New York Times
  • 88
    • 6244273680 scopus 로고
    • The Silence of a Strange Land
    • February 5
    • See New York Times, December 22, 1994, p. A4 on U.S. official's speculation concerning North Korea's slow handling of the U.S. helicopter incident. Don Oberdorfer ("The Silence of a Strange Land," Washington Post, February 5, 1995, p. Cl), based on interviews on Pyongyang, concluded that Kim Jong Il overrode objections from the North Korean military to the Agreed Framework and the release of the U.S. helicopter pilot.
    • (1995) Washington Post
    • Oberdorfer, D.1
  • 89
    • 6244265372 scopus 로고
    • Problems Left behind by U.S.-N. Korean Nuclear Accord
    • October 19
    • See, for example, Jung Yong-suk, "Problems Left Behind by U.S.-N. Korean Nuclear Accord," Dong-A Ilbo, October 19, 1994, in Korea Focus, vol. 2, no. 5 (September-October 1994), pp. 5-7.
    • (1994) Dong-A Ilbo
    • Jung, Y.-S.1
  • 90
    • 6244305888 scopus 로고
    • September-October
    • See, for example, Jung Yong-suk, "Problems Left Behind by U.S.-N. Korean Nuclear Accord," Dong-A Ilbo, October 19, 1994, in Korea Focus, vol. 2, no. 5 (September-October 1994), pp. 5-7.
    • (1994) Korea Focus , vol.2 , Issue.5 , pp. 5-7
  • 91
    • 6244305885 scopus 로고
    • Hasty Summit with Kim Jong-il Unnecessary
    • September
    • Kim Tschol-su, "Hasty Summit With Kim Jong-il Unnecessary," Shin Dong-A Monthly, September 1994, in Korea Focus, vol. 2, No. 5 (September-October 1994), pp. 12-21.
    • (1994) Shin Dong-A Monthly
    • Kim, T.-S.1
  • 92
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    • September-October
    • Kim Tschol-su, "Hasty Summit With Kim Jong-il Unnecessary," Shin Dong-A Monthly, September 1994, in Korea Focus, vol. 2, No. 5 (September-October 1994), pp. 12-21.
    • (1994) Korea Focus , vol.2 , Issue.5 , pp. 12-21
  • 93
    • 6244221193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • ESCAP, formerly ECAFE, was founded in 1947 and is now headquartered in Bangkok. According to a U.S. engineer who works with ESCAP, coal-washing, air pollution measurement, and energy-saving factory management are the kinds of low-cost, focused projects most likely to interest the North Koreans (private communication, November 1994).
  • 94
    • 6244231433 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The ASEAN-PMC, founded in 1972, has since 1992 included security issues in its deliberations on regional cooperation. Permanent members are the same as for the ARF, which ASEAN-PMC launched; China and Russia currently have observer status.
  • 95
    • 6244255799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Epilogue: Korean Conundrum in the Post-Cold War Era
    • Kihl, ed.
    • Young Whan Kihl, "Epilogue: Korean Conundrum in the Post-Cold War Era," in Kihl, ed., Korea and the World, p. 33.
    • Korea and the World , pp. 33
    • Young, W.K.1


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