From prebendalism to predation: The political economy of decline in Nigeria

Journal of Modern African Studies

Volumn 34, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 79-103

  Lewis, Peter ^a,b  

^a AMERICAN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPING COUNTRY; ECONOMIC POLICY; ECONOMIC REFORM; POLICY DEVELOPMENT; POLITICS OF REFORM; STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT;

NIGERIA;

EID: 0030448164     PISSN: 0022278X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s0022278x0005521x     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. See Peter M. Lewis, 'Endgame in Nigeria? The Politics of a Failed Democratic Transition', in African Affairs (London), 93, 372, July 1994, p. 336.
2. A note on terminology: I have eschewed the word 'sultanism', used by Max Weber in Economy and Society (Berkeley, 1978), vol. 1, pp. 231-2, to characterise the personalised and predatory form of patrimonial rule, because in the Nigerian context this raises the particular connotation of northern 'sultans' or emirs. Predatory rule, in the sense used in this article, denotes a personalistic régime ruling through coercion and material inducement. This type of régime tends to degrade the institutional foundations of the state, as well as the economy. Since predatory rule as an analytic category is not associated with any particular region, ethnic group, or religion, Weber's original usage would be misleading.
3. On the oil boom era, see Gavin Williams and Terisa Turner, 'Nigeria', in John Dunn (ed.), West African States : failure and promise. A Study in Comparative Politics (Cambridge, 1978), pp. 132-72, and Douglas Rimmer, 'Development in Nigeria: an overview', in Henry Bienen and V. P. Diejomaoh (eds.), The Political Economy of Income Distribution in Nigeria (New York, 1981) pp. 19-87.
4. On the oil boom era, see Gavin Williams and Terisa Turner, 'Nigeria', in John Dunn (ed.), West African States : failure and promise. A Study in Comparative Politics (Cambridge, 1978), pp. 132-72, and Douglas Rimmer, 'Development in Nigeria: an overview', in Henry Bienen and V. P. Diejomaoh (eds.), The Political Economy of Income Distribution in Nigeria (New York, 1981) pp. 19-87.
5. Sayre P. Schatz, 'Pirate Capitalism and the Inert Economy of Nigeria', in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), 22, 1, March 1984, pp. 45-57. See also, Henry Bienen, 'Oil Revenues and Policy Choice in Nigeria', in Political Conflict and Economic Change in Nigeria (London, 1985).
6. Sayre P. Schatz, 'Pirate Capitalism and the Inert Economy of Nigeria', in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), 22, 1, March 1984, pp. 45-57. See also, Henry Bienen, 'Oil Revenues and Policy Choice in Nigeria', in Political Conflict and Economic Change in Nigeria (London, 1985).
7. On the 'Dutch disease' syndrome, see Alan Gelb, 'Adjustment to Windfall Gains: a comparative analysis of oil exporting countries', in J. P. Neary and S. van Wijnbergen (eds.), Natural Resources and the Macroeconomy (Oxford, 1986), and Akorlie Nyetepe-Coo, 'Dutch Disease, Government Policy and Import Demand in Nigeria', in Applied Economics (London), 26, 1994, pp. 327-36.
8. On the 'Dutch disease' syndrome, see Alan Gelb, 'Adjustment to Windfall Gains: a comparative analysis of oil exporting countries', in J. P. Neary and S. van Wijnbergen (eds.), Natural Resources and the Macroeconomy (Oxford, 1986), and Akorlie Nyetepe-Coo, 'Dutch Disease, Government Policy and Import Demand in Nigeria', in Applied Economics (London), 26, 1994, pp. 327-36.
9. David Bevan, Paul Collier, and Jan Willem Gunning, 'Nigerian Economic Policy and Performance: 1981-92', Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford University, May 1992, p. 4.
10. Economic policy under the Second Republic is discussed by Billy Dudley, An Introduction to Nigerian Government and Politics (Bloomington, 1982), and by Tom Forrest, Politics and Economic Development in Nigeria (Boulder, 1995 edn.).
11. Economic policy under the Second Republic is discussed by Billy Dudley, An Introduction to Nigerian Government and Politics (Bloomington, 1982), and by Tom Forrest, Politics and Economic Development in Nigeria (Boulder, 1995 edn.).
12. See Adebayo Olukoshi and Tajudeen Abdulraheem, 'Nigeria: crisis management under the Buhari regime', in Review of African Political Economy (Sheffield), 34, December 1985, pp. 96-7.
13. The nationwide 'IMF debate' is discussed by Thomas J. Biersteker, 'Structural Adjustment and the Political Transition in Nigeria', Conference on Democratic Transition and Structural Adjustment in Nigeria, Stanford University, August 1990.
14. See Paul Mosley, 'Policy-Making Without Facts: a note on the assessment of structural adjustment policies in Nigeria, 1985-1990', in African Affairs, 91, 363, April 1992, p. 230.
15. The background to the 1986 SAP is covered by Thomas M. Callaghy, 'Lost Between State and Market: the politics of economic adjustment in Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria', in Joan Nelson (ed.), Economic Crisis and Policy Choice: the politics of adjustment in the Third World (Princeton, 1990), pp. 305-16.
16. World Bank, Nigeria's Structural Adjustment Program: policies, implementation, and impact (Washington, DC, 1994), p. 10. The value of the naira had dropped incrementally from about $1.50 in the early 19805 to become roughly par with the dollar on the eve of the second-tier foreign-exchange market in September 1986. After the Central Bank of Nigeria's initial currency auction, the naira became worth less than 30 US cents.
17. Mosley, loc. cit. p. 232.
18. Central Bank of Nigeria, Economic Policy Reforms in Nigeria: a study report (Lagos, 1993), p. 19.
19. See Paul Lubeck, 'Restructuring Nigeria's Urban-Industrial Sector Within the West African Region: the interplay of crisis, linkages and popular resistance', in International Journal of Urban and Regional Research (London), 16, 1, 1992, pp. 6-23.
20. Bevan, Collier, and Gunning, op. cit. p. 33.
21. Biersteker, op. cit. p. 18.
22. In 1989, a two-tiered pricing structure was introduced as a means of phasing-in a price increase on fuels.
23. Peter M. Lewis, 'Economic Statism, Private Capital, and the Dilemmas of Accumulation in Nigeria', in World Development (Oxford), 22, 3, March 1994, p. 445.
24. Central Bank of Nigeria, op. cit. p. 8.
25. Jibrin Ibrahim, 'The Transition to Civilian Rule: sapping democracy', in Adebayo O. Olukoshi (ed.), The Politics of Structural Adjustment in Nigeria (London, 1993), p. 133.
26. This is emphasised by John Waterbury, 'The Political Management of Economic Adjustment and Reform', in Joan Nelson (ed.), Fragile Coalitions: the politics of adjustment (New Brunswick, 1989, pp. 39-56.
27. Forrest, op. cit. pp. 209-10.
28. Analyses in this vein can be found in Robert D. Putnam, 'Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: the logic of two-level games', in International Organization (Cambridge, MA), 42, 3, Summer 1988, pp. 426-60; Callaghy, loc. cit.; and Howard P. Lehman, Indebted Development: strategic bargaining and economic adjustment in the Third World (Basingstoke and New York, 1993).
29. Analyses in this vein can be found in Robert D. Putnam, 'Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: the logic of two-level games', in International Organization (Cambridge, MA), 42, 3, Summer 1988, pp. 426-60; Callaghy, loc. cit.; and Howard P. Lehman, Indebted Development: strategic bargaining and economic adjustment in the Third World (Basingstoke and New York, 1993).
30. Analyses in this vein can be found in Robert D. Putnam, 'Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: the logic of two-level games', in International Organization (Cambridge, MA), 42, 3, Summer 1988, pp. 426-60; Callaghy, loc. cit.; and Howard P. Lehman, Indebted Development: strategic bargaining and economic adjustment in the Third World (Basingstoke and New York, 1993).
31. This is evident from several case-studies in Nelson (ed.), op. cit.
32. Callaghy, loc. cit. pp. 306-7.
33. Julius O. Ihonvbere, 'Economic Crisis, Structural Adjustment and Social Crisis in Nigeria', in World Development, 21, 1, 1993, p. 146.
34. See Yusuf Bangura and Bjorn Beckman, 'African Workers and Structural Adjustment: a Nigerian case-study', and Attahiru Jega, 'Professional Associations and Structural Adjustment', in Olukoshi (ed.), op. cit. pp. 75-96 and 97-111, respectively.
35. See Yusuf Bangura and Bjorn Beckman, 'African Workers and Structural Adjustment: a Nigerian case-study', and Attahiru Jega, 'Professional Associations and Structural Adjustment', in Olukoshi (ed.), op. cit. pp. 75-96 and 97-111, respectively.
36. See Jega, loc. cit.
37. Lewis, 'Economic Statism', p. 445.
38. Abdul Raufu Mustapha, 'Structural Adjustment and Agrarian Change in Nigeria', in Olukoshi (ed.), op. cit. pp. 121-2.
39. M. O. Ojo, 'A Review and Appraisal of Nigeria's Experience with Financial Sector Reform', Central Bank of Nigeria, Research Department Occasional Paper No. 8, 1993, p. 10.
40. Financial Times (London), 16 March 1992.
41. World Bank, op. cit. p. 57.
42. Personal interview, Western diplomat, Lagos, June 1993.
43. See Julius O. Ihonvbere, 'A Critical Evaluation of the Failed 1990 Coup in Nigeria', in The Journal of Modern African Studies, 29, 4, December 1991, pp. 601-26.
44. Ibid, and Forrest, op. cit. p. 246.
45. Ibid, and Forrest, op. cit. p. 246.
46. Business Times (Lagos), 17 October 1994.
47. Forrest, op. cit. p. 247.
48. Central Bank of Nigeria, op. cit. p. 36.
49. World Bank, op. cit. p. 36.
50. Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts, 1994 (Lagos, 1995), p. 1.
51. T. J. Ntekop, 'The Foreign Exchange Market in Nigeria', in Bullion (Lagos), 16, 3, July-September 1992, p. 30.
52. Agusto & Co., 1993/34 Banking Industry Survey (Lagos, 1994), p. 1.
53. Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report and Statement of Accounts, 1992 (Lagos 1993), p. 68.
54. Economist Intelligence Unit, Nigeria Country Report (London), 1, 1993, p. 4.
55. Interestingly, the Government serviced its debt to the World Bank and its obligations to holders of par bonds. An implicit distinction was made between the 'lenders of last resort' and creditors regarded as dispensable.
56. Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report, 1992, p. 70.
57. See Lewis, 'Endgame in Nigeria?', and Larry Diamond, 'Nigeria: the uncivic society and the descent into praetorianism', in Diamond, Juan J. Linz, and Seymour Martin Lipset (eds.), Politics in Developing Countries: comparing experiences with democracy (Boulder, CO, 1995 edn.), pp. 456-60.
58. See Lewis, 'Endgame in Nigeria?', and Larry Diamond, 'Nigeria: the uncivic society and the descent into praetorianism', in Diamond, Juan J. Linz, and Seymour Martin Lipset (eds.), Politics in Developing Countries: comparing experiences with democracy (Boulder, CO, 1995 edn.), pp. 456-60.
59. Diamond, loc. cit. p. 459.
60. Central Bank of Nigeria, Annual Report, 1994, p. 70.
61. Ihonvbere, 'Economic Crisis', p. 148.
62. Pareto defined 'spoliation' as personal gain at the expense of general welfare. According to Margaret Levi, Of Rule and Revenue (Berkeley, 1988), p. 3, fn, this represents a corrosive form of resource extraction by rulers.
63. See Christopher Clapham, Third World Politics: an introduction (London, 1985).
64. See Robert H. Jackson and Carl G. Rosberg, Personal Rule in Black Africa: prince, autocrat, prophet, tyrant (Berkeley, 1982).
65. Richard Sandbrook, The Politics of Africa's Economic Stagnation (Cambridge, 1985), and Nicolas van de Walle, 'Neopatrimonialism and Democracy in Africa, with an Illustration from Cameroon', in Jennifer A. Widner (ed.), Economic Change and Political Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa (Baltimore and London, 1994), pp. 129-57.
66. Richard Sandbrook, The Politics of Africa's Economic Stagnation (Cambridge, 1985), and Nicolas van de Walle, 'Neopatrimonialism and Democracy in Africa, with an Illustration from Cameroon', in Jennifer A. Widner (ed.), Economic Change and Political Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa (Baltimore and London, 1994), pp. 129-57.
67. These processes are elaborated by Catherine Boone, 'The Making of a Rentier Class: wealth accumulation and political control in Senegal', in The Journal of Development Studies (London), 26, 3, April 1990, pp. 425-9, and in David C. Colander (ed.), Neoclassical Political Economy: an analysis of rent-seeking and DUP activities (Cambridge, MA, 1984).
68. These processes are elaborated by Catherine Boone, 'The Making of a Rentier Class: wealth accumulation and political control in Senegal', in The Journal of Development Studies (London), 26, 3, April 1990, pp. 425-9, and in David C. Colander (ed.), Neoclassical Political Economy: an analysis of rent-seeking and DUP activities (Cambridge, MA, 1984).
69. On the political conditions for entrepreneurship in the continent, see Sandbrook, op. cit. and Paul Kenedy, African Capitalism: the struggle for ascendancy (Cambridge, 1988).
70. On the political conditions for entrepreneurship in the continent, see Sandbrook, op. cit. and Paul Kenedy, African Capitalism: the struggle for ascendancy (Cambridge, 1988).
71. See Richard A. Joseph, Democracy and Prebendal Politics in Nigeria: the rise and fall of the Second Republic (Cambridge, 1987).
72. Weber, op. cit. pp. 231-2.
73. Juan J. Linz, 'Totalitarian and Authoritarian Regimes', in Fred Greenstein and Nelson Polsby (eds.), Handbook of Political Science. Vol. 3, Macropolitical Theory (Menlo Park, 1975), p. 259. Linz adopts Weber's usage of 'sukanism', which I have modified.
74. Diamond, 'Nigeria: the uncivic society', p. 452.
75. Africa Confidential (London), 3 December 1993, p. 5.
76. Newswatch (Lagos), 2 October 1995.
77. See Rimmer, loc. cit., Joseph, op. cit., and Forrest, op. cit. passim.
78. See Rimmer, loc. cit., Joseph, op. cit., and Forrest, op. cit. passim.
79. See Rimmer, loc. cit., Joseph, op. cit., and Forrest, op. cit. passim.