Closing the transition: The May 1995 elections in Ethiopia

Journal of Modern African Studies

Volumn 34, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 121-142

  Lyons, Terrence ^a,b  

^a BROOKINGS INSTITUTION   (United States)

^b Donor Election Unit   (Ethiopia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEVELOPING COUNTRY; ELECTION(1995); ELECTORAL SYSTEM; ETHNICITY; FEDERAL STRUCTURE; NATIONAL POLITICS; POLITICAL TRANSITION;

ETHIOPIA;

EID: 0030390776     PISSN: 0022278X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/s0022278x00055233     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. On the origins of the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front, see Theodros Dagne, 'EPRDF's Rise to Political Dominance', in Ethiopian Review (Los Angeles), December 1992, pp. 17-20; 'The EPRDF First Congress: a milestone in the Ethiopian People's struggle', in EPRDF News Bulletin (Washington, DC), 1, 2, 5 March 1991, p. 1; and 'Ethiopia: from rebels to rulers', in Africa Confidential (London), 32, 11, 31 May 1991, pp. 1-3.
2. On the origins of the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front, see Theodros Dagne, 'EPRDF's Rise to Political Dominance', in Ethiopian Review (Los Angeles), December 1992, pp. 17-20; 'The EPRDF First Congress: a milestone in the Ethiopian People's struggle', in EPRDF News Bulletin (Washington, DC), 1, 2, 5 March 1991, p. 1; and 'Ethiopia: from rebels to rulers', in Africa Confidential (London), 32, 11, 31 May 1991, pp. 1-3.
3. On the origins of the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front, see Theodros Dagne, 'EPRDF's Rise to Political Dominance', in Ethiopian Review (Los Angeles), December 1992, pp. 17-20; 'The EPRDF First Congress: a milestone in the Ethiopian People's struggle', in EPRDF News Bulletin (Washington, DC), 1, 2, 5 March 1991, p. 1; and 'Ethiopia: from rebels to rulers', in Africa Confidential (London), 32, 11, 31 May 1991, pp. 1-3.
4. For more details, see Terrence Lyons, 'The Transition in Ethiopia', in CSIS Africa Notes (Washington, DC), 127, 17 August 1991, pp. 1-80.
5. For early assessments, see Stephen Morrison and Jeffrey Clark, 'Ethiopia, Eritrea and Democracy: significant opportunities amidst a fragile transition', Report to the National Endowment for Democracy, Washington, DC, October 1991, and Herbert Lewis, 'Ethiopia: beginning again', in Africa Report (New York), September-October 1991, pp. 60-1.
6. For early assessments, see Stephen Morrison and Jeffrey Clark, 'Ethiopia, Eritrea and Democracy: significant opportunities amidst a fragile transition', Report to the National Endowment for Democracy, Washington, DC, October 1991, and Herbert Lewis, 'Ethiopia: beginning again', in Africa Report (New York), September-October 1991, pp. 60-1.
7. For some additional details, see Edmond J. Keller, 'Remaking the Ethiopian State', in I. William Zartman (ed.), Collapsed States: the disintegration and restoration of legitimate authority (Boulder, 1995), pp. 133-5.
8. Ethiopia: from rebels to rulers', in Africa Confidential, 32, 11, 31 May 1991, pp. 1-3, and 'Ethiopia: majorities and minorities', in ibid. 32, 14, 12 July 1991, pp. 1-2.
9. Ethiopia: from rebels to rulers', in Africa Confidential, 32, 11, 31 May 1991, pp. 1-3, and 'Ethiopia: majorities and minorities', in ibid. 32, 14, 12 July 1991, pp. 1-2.
10. The Eritrean Peoples Liberation Front attended the National Conference as an observer, not a participant. In any event, no Ethiopian régime had the capacity in 1991 to prevent the EPLF from opting out of the proposed federal republic, and in April 1993 Eritreans voted overwhelmingly for independence.
11. J. Stephen Morrison, 'Ethiopia Charts a New Course', in Journal of Democracy (Baltimore), Summer 1992, p. 127.
12. Cameron McWirter and Gur Melamede, 'Ethiopia: the ethnicity factor', in Africa Report, 37, 5, September-October 1992, p. 33. According to Michaela Wrong, 'Ethiopia Buries the African "Nation State"', in Financial Times (London), 5 May 1995, Dawit Yohannes, a legal adviser to Meles Zenawi, stated 'We say there is no country called Ethiopia, no state that defends the interests of this multi-ethnic community grouped under the name Ethiopia. That's why we've been immersed in wars for the last 30 years. So we must start again, from scratch.'
13. Cameron McWirter and Gur Melamede, 'Ethiopia: the ethnicity factor', in Africa Report, 37, 5, September-October 1992, p. 33. According to Michaela Wrong, 'Ethiopia Buries the African "Nation State"', in Financial Times (London), 5 May 1995, Dawit Yohannes, a legal adviser to Meles Zenawi, stated 'We say there is no country called Ethiopia, no state that defends the interests of this multi-ethnic community grouped under the name Ethiopia. That's why we've been immersed in wars for the last 30 years. So we must start again, from scratch.'
14. Morrison, loc. cit. p. 129.
15. See Asafa Jalata, Oromia and Ethiopia: state formation and ethnonational conflict, 1868-1992 (Boulder, 1993).
16. Proclamation No. 7 of 1992. See 'Ethiopia: new government, new map', in Africa Confidential, 32, 22, 8 November 1991, p. 7, and Edmond Keller, 'The Ethnogenesis of the Oromo Nation and Its Implications for Politics in Ethiopia', in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), 33, 4, December 1995, p. 632, for a map of Ethiopia's 12 ethnically-based administrative regions. For an account of past regional boundary changes, see Daniel Gamachu, 'A Nation in Perpetual Transition: the politics of changes in administrative divisions and subdivisions in Ethiopia', in Harold Marcus (ed.), New Trends in Ethiopian Studies: papers of the 12th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies, Vol. II (Lawrenceville, NJ, 1994), pp. 83-113.
17. Proclamation No. 7 of 1992. See 'Ethiopia: new government, new map', in Africa Confidential, 32, 22, 8 November 1991, p. 7, and Edmond Keller, 'The Ethnogenesis of the Oromo Nation and Its Implications for Politics in Ethiopia', in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), 33, 4, December 1995, p. 632, for a map of Ethiopia's 12 ethnically-based administrative regions. For an account of past regional boundary changes, see Daniel Gamachu, 'A Nation in Perpetual Transition: the politics of changes in administrative divisions and subdivisions in Ethiopia', in Harold Marcus (ed.), New Trends in Ethiopian Studies: papers of the 12th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies, Vol. II (Lawrenceville, NJ, 1994), pp. 83-113.
18. Proclamation No. 7 of 1992. See 'Ethiopia: new government, new map', in Africa Confidential, 32, 22, 8 November 1991, p. 7, and Edmond Keller, 'The Ethnogenesis of the Oromo Nation and Its Implications for Politics in Ethiopia', in The Journal of Modern African Studies (Cambridge), 33, 4, December 1995, p. 632, for a map of Ethiopia's 12 ethnically-based administrative regions. For an account of past regional boundary changes, see Daniel Gamachu, 'A Nation in Perpetual Transition: the politics of changes in administrative divisions and subdivisions in Ethiopia', in Harold Marcus (ed.), New Trends in Ethiopian Studies: papers of the 12th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies, Vol. II (Lawrenceville, NJ, 1994), pp. 83-113.
19. For more on these questions, see Marina Ottaway, Democracy and Ethnic Nationalism: African and Eastern European experiences (Washington, DC, 1994), Overseas Development Council Policy Essay No. 14, and 'Nationalism Unbound: the Horn of Africa revisited', in SAIS Review (Washington, DC), 12, 2, Summer-Fall 1992, pp. 111-28.
20. For more on these questions, see Marina Ottaway, Democracy and Ethnic Nationalism: African and Eastern European experiences (Washington, DC, 1994), Overseas Development Council Policy Essay No. 14, and 'Nationalism Unbound: the Horn of Africa revisited', in SAIS Review (Washington, DC), 12, 2, Summer-Fall 1992, pp. 111-28.
21. Two analysts of European developments conclude that if 'in multinational polities the first elections are regional, we believe that there will be strong incentives for political contestation to focus on antistate ethnic issues and that the day after the regional elections the legitimacy of the state will be weaker'. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, 'Political Identities and Electoral Sequences: Spain, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia', in Daedalus (Cambridge, MA), 121, 2, Spring 1992, p. 125. For the impact of proceeding with regional before national elections in the break-up of Yugoslavia, see Susan Woodward, The Balkan Tragedy: chaos and dissolution after the cold war (Washington, DC, Brookings, 1995).
22. Two analysts of European developments conclude that if 'in multinational polities the first elections are regional, we believe that there will be strong incentives for political contestation to focus on antistate ethnic issues and that the day after the regional elections the legitimacy of the state will be weaker'. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, 'Political Identities and Electoral Sequences: Spain, the Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia', in Daedalus (Cambridge, MA), 121, 2, Spring 1992, p. 125. For the impact of proceeding with regional before national elections in the break-up of Yugoslavia, see Susan Woodward, The Balkan Tragedy: chaos and dissolution after the cold war (Washington, DC, Brookings, 1995).
23. See, for example, Michael A. Hiltzik, 'Ethiopia Fears New Civil War, Loss of Its Aid', in Los Angeles Times, 15 April 1992, p. A1, and Jennifer Parmelee, 'Skirmishes Put Ethiopia "Between War and Peace"', in The Washington Post, 4 April 1992, p. A19.
24. See, for example, Michael A. Hiltzik, 'Ethiopia Fears New Civil War, Loss of Its Aid', in Los Angeles Times, 15 April 1992, p. A1, and Jennifer Parmelee, 'Skirmishes Put Ethiopia "Between War and Peace"', in The Washington Post, 4 April 1992, p. A19.
25. For a sample of the heated rhetoric, see 'EPRDF Statement Outlines Problems with OLF', Voice of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, 29 March 1992, translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, Sub-Saharan Africa, hereafter FBIS (Washington, DC), 31 March 1992, pp. 6-8, and 'OLF Statement Responds to EPRDF Claims', Voice of Ethiopia, 31 March 1992, translated in ibid. 2 April 1992, pp. 3-4. See also, Asafa Jalata, op. cit. pp. 181-6.
26. For a sample of the heated rhetoric, see 'EPRDF Statement Outlines Problems with OLF', Voice of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, 29 March 1992, translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, Sub-Saharan Africa, hereafter FBIS (Washington, DC), 31 March 1992, pp. 6-8, and 'OLF Statement Responds to EPRDF Claims', Voice of Ethiopia, 31 March 1992, translated in ibid. 2 April 1992, pp. 3-4. See also, Asafa Jalata, op. cit. pp. 181-6.
27. For a sample of the heated rhetoric, see 'EPRDF Statement Outlines Problems with OLF', Voice of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, 29 March 1992, translated in Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Daily Report, Sub-Saharan Africa, hereafter FBIS (Washington, DC), 31 March 1992, pp. 6-8, and 'OLF Statement Responds to EPRDF Claims', Voice of Ethiopia, 31 March 1992, translated in ibid. 2 April 1992, pp. 3-4. See also, Asafa Jalata, op. cit. pp. 181-6.
28. 'EPRDF-OLF Communiqué on U.S.-Brokered Agreement', Voice of Ethiopia, 15 April 1992, translated in FBIS, 16 April 1992, p. 5. See also, 'Ethiopia: power-struggles and the ethnic weapon', in Africa Confidential, 33, 9, 8 May 1992, pp. 6-7.
29. 'EPRDF-OLF Communiqué on U.S.-Brokered Agreement', Voice of Ethiopia, 15 April 1992, translated in FBIS, 16 April 1992, p. 5. See also, 'Ethiopia: power-struggles and the ethnic weapon', in Africa Confidential, 33, 9, 8 May 1992, pp. 6-7.
30. Terrence Lyons, 'The Transition Toward Democracy in Ethiopia: observations on the elections in Welega, June 1992', testimony before the US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on African Affairs hearing, 17 September 1992. See also, Friends of Ethiopia Newsletter (Washington, DC), August 1992, and Gilbert D. Kulick, 'Ethiopia's Hollow Elections: observing the forms', in Foreign Service Journal (Washington, DC), September 1992, pp. 41-4.
31. Terrence Lyons, 'The Transition Toward Democracy in Ethiopia: observations on the elections in Welega, June 1992', testimony before the US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on African Affairs hearing, 17 September 1992. See also, Friends of Ethiopia Newsletter (Washington, DC), August 1992, and Gilbert D. Kulick, 'Ethiopia's Hollow Elections: observing the forms', in Foreign Service Journal (Washington, DC), September 1992, pp. 41-4.
32. Terrence Lyons, 'The Transition Toward Democracy in Ethiopia: observations on the elections in Welega, June 1992', testimony before the US House of Representatives Foreign Relations Sub-Committee on African Affairs hearing, 17 September 1992. See also, Friends of Ethiopia Newsletter (Washington, DC), August 1992, and Gilbert D. Kulick, 'Ethiopia's Hollow Elections: observing the forms', in Foreign Service Journal (Washington, DC), September 1992, pp. 41-4.
33. 'Withdrawals From, Postponement of Elections', Voice of Ethiopia in Amharic, 17 June 1992, translated in FBIS, 18 June 1992, p. 2.
34. National Democratic Institute, An Evaluation of the June 21, 1992 Elections in Ethiopia (Washington, DC, 1992), p. 3.
35. Embassy of Ethiopia, 'A Significant Step Towards Democracy', in News from Ethiopia (Washington, DC), 1, 2, 14 July 1992, pp. 1-2.
36. National Democratic Institute, op. cit. pp. 3-4.
37. Attempts by a group of Western ambassadors to mediate between the EPRDF and OLF failed. See 'Ethiopia: poacher turns gamekeeper', in Africa Confidential, 33, 14, 17 July 1992, p. 7.
38. US Department of State, Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1992 (Washington, DC, 1993).
39. Jennifer Parmelee, 'Ethiopia's New Politics Echo an Old War', in The Washington Post, 18 February 1993, p. A33. See also, 'Ethiopia: government arm wrestles AAPO', in Indian Ocean Newsletter (Paris), 562, 13 February 1993, p. 3.
40. Jennifer Parmelee, 'Ethiopia's New Politics Echo an Old War', in The Washington Post, 18 February 1993, p. A33. See also, 'Ethiopia: government arm wrestles AAPO', in Indian Ocean Newsletter (Paris), 562, 13 February 1993, p. 3.
41. 'Ethiopia: opposition meeting in Paris', in ibid. 567, 20 March 1993, pp. 1-2.
42. 'SEPDU Parties Suspended from Council of Representatives', Voice of Ethiopia, 2 April 1993, translated in FBIS, 5 April 1993, p. 5.
43. Jennifer Parmelee, 'Ethiopia Arrests Dissident Political Leaders', in The Washington Post, 18 December 1993, p. A22,
44. and 'Ethiopian Opposition: rulers stay too long', in ibid. 23 December 1993, p. A16.
45. 'Carter Center Statement on Ethiopia Negotiations', in News from the Carter Center (Atlanta), 23 March 1994.
46. Africa Research Bulletin (Oxford), June 1994, p. 11470, and Jennifer Parmelee, 'Ethiopia, in Democratic Trial Run, Elects Constitution Writers', in The Washington Post, 6 June 1994, p. A13.
47. Africa Research Bulletin (Oxford), June 1994, p. 11470, and Jennifer Parmelee, 'Ethiopia, in Democratic Trial Run, Elects Constitution Writers', in The Washington Post, 6 June 1994, p. A13.
48. 'Ethiopia: constitutional dilemmas', in Africa Confidential, 35, 13, 1 July 1994, p. 3.
49. On the 1994 elections, see Siegfried Pausewang, The 1994 Election and Democracy in Ethiopia (Oslo, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, November 1994), and Gary Ouellet, Recommendations Report: Ethiopia (Washington, DC, International Foundation for Electoral Systems, July 1994).
50. On the 1994 elections, see Siegfried Pausewang, The 1994 Election and Democracy in Ethiopia (Oslo, Norwegian Institute of Human Rights, November 1994), and Gary Ouellet, Recommendations Report: Ethiopia (Washington, DC, International Foundation for Electoral Systems, July 1994).
51. 'EEC Statement of Ethiopia', Reuters, 27 June 1994.
52. Ethiopian Congress for Democracy (A-Bu-Gi-Da), 'June 5, 1994 Constitutional Assembly Election Monitoring Mission Summary Report', Addis Ababa, 22 June 1994, p. 7.
53. Donors Group, 'The Constitution and Forthcoming Elections', press release, Addis Ababa, 14 December 1994, published in Ethiopian Register (Los Angeles), January 1995, pp. 64-5.
54. 'Ethiopia: negotiations in Washington', in Indian Ocean Newsletter, 658, 11 February 1995, P. 3, and 'Report on Congressional Task Force Talks on Democratization in Ethiopia, February 6-9'.
55. 'Ethiopia: negotiations in Washington', in Indian Ocean Newsletter, 658, 11 February 1995, P. 3, and 'Report on Congressional Task Force Talks on Democratization in Ethiopia, February 6-9'.
56. Wrong, loc. cit.
57. An explosion in Dire Dawa on 4 May 1995 did not seem to be connected to the elections, and voting proceeded there quietly, although participation was low.
58. Ethiopian News Agency, 'Ethiopia Comes of Age to Determine Leadership Through Election: Meles', in The Ethiopian Herald (Addis Ababa), 28 May 1995, p. 1, and 'President Meles Marks EPRDF Anniversary', Radio Ethiopia in Amharic, 27 May 1995, translated in FBIS, 30 May 1995, p. 8.
59. Ethiopian News Agency, 'Ethiopia Comes of Age to Determine Leadership Through Election: Meles', in The Ethiopian Herald (Addis Ababa), 28 May 1995, p. 1, and 'President Meles Marks EPRDF Anniversary', Radio Ethiopia in Amharic, 27 May 1995, translated in FBIS, 30 May 1995, p. 8.
60. Reuters, 'Opposition Bows Out of Elections', 5 May 1995, reprinted in Horn of Africa Bulletin (Uppsala), June 1995. See also, Wrong, loc. cit.
61. Reuters, 'Opposition Bows Out of Elections', 5 May 1995, reprinted in Horn of Africa Bulletin (Uppsala), June 1995. See also, Wrong, loc. cit.
62. This analysis is based largely on personal observations and discussions in Ethiopia between March and June 1995 as part of the Donor Election Unit.
63. The Amhara National Democratic Movement had originally been a multi-ethnic party known as the Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Movement, and some notable ANDM leaders before that had been in the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Party.
64. See US Department of State, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1995 (Washington, DC, 1995), and the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Human Rights in Ethiopia: rhetoric and practice (Addis Ababa, March 1995).
65. See US Department of State, Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 1995 (Washington, DC, 1995), and the Ethiopian Human Rights Council, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Human Rights in Ethiopia: rhetoric and practice (Addis Ababa, March 1995).
66. See Lyons, 'Transition Toward Democracy in Ethiopia'.
67. 'Murder of Oromo Nationalist', in Indian Ocean Newsletter, 1 July 1995.
68. The non-OPDO seats were won by the small Oromo Abo and Oromo United Parties. For background of the complicated splits and mergers of these parties, see 'Ethiopia: Oromos get act together', in ibid. 21 January 1995, P. 4.
69. I have benefited from discussions on these points with Kevin Johnson and his colleagues at the National Democratic Institute in Addis Ababa from March to June 1995 and thereafter in Washington, DC.
70. 'President Address EPRDF's 2d Congress', Radio Ethiopia in Amharic, 8 January 1995, translated in FBIS, 10 January 1995, p. 9, and 'EPRDF Adopts Program Ahead of Elections', Radio Ethiopia in Amharic, 10 January 1995, translated in FBIS, 17 January 1995, p. 5.
71. 'President Address EPRDF's 2d Congress', Radio Ethiopia in Amharic, 8 January 1995, translated in FBIS, 10 January 1995, p. 9, and 'EPRDF Adopts Program Ahead of Elections', Radio Ethiopia in Amharic, 10 January 1995, translated in FBIS, 17 January 1995, p. 5.
72. For a detailed analysis of kebelles and peasant associations during the Mengistu era, see Christopher Clapham, Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia (Cambridge, 1988), pp. 129-94. Also, Dessalegn Rahmato, 'The Unquiet Countryside: the collapse of "socialism" and rural agitation, 1990 and 1991', in Abede Zegeye and Siegfried Pausewang (eds.), Ethiopia in Change: peasantry, nationalism and democracy (London, 1994), pp. 248-54.
73. For a detailed analysis of kebelles and peasant associations during the Mengistu era, see Christopher Clapham, Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia (Cambridge, 1988), pp. 129-94. Also, Dessalegn Rahmato, 'The Unquiet Countryside: the collapse of "socialism" and rural agitation, 1990 and 1991', in Abede Zegeye and Siegfried Pausewang (eds.), Ethiopia in Change: peasantry, nationalism and democracy (London, 1994), pp. 248-54.
74. Quoted in Stephen Buckely, 'Ethiopia Takes New Ethnic Tack: deliberately divisive', in The Washington Post, 18 June 1995, p A21.
75. American Embassy, 'U.S. Applauds Elections as Key Step on Road to Democracy', Addis Ababa, Press Release, 22 June 1995.
76. Organisation of African Unity, 'Statement by the OAU Observer Group to Ethiopia's Federal and Regional Council Elections - May 7, 1995', Addis Ababa, 12 May 1995.
77. Cited by Reuters, 'Ruling Coalition Wins Ethiopia Vote', in The New York Times, 9 May 1995, P. A6.