Emission scenarios and global climate protection

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 6, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 305-334

  Alcamo, Joseph ^a   Kreileman, Eric ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KASSEL   (Germany)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE PROTECTION; CLIMATE PROTOCOL; EMISSION; EMISSIONS CONTROL; EMISSIONS SCENARIO; GREENHOUSE GAS; IMAGE 2; PLANNING METHOD; PLANNING TECHNIQUE; SAFE EMISSION CORRIDORS;

EID: 0030301218     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(96)00030-1     Document Type: Article

References (52)

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2. Also published as special issue of Water, Air and Soil Pollution, Volume 76, Nos 1-2, 1994
3. J Alcamo, G J J Kreileman, M Krol and G Zuidema, 'Modelling the global societybiosphere-climate system, Part 1: model description and testing', Water Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 1-36
4. H J M de Vries, J G J Olivier, R A van den Wijngaart, G J J Kreileman and A M C Toet, 'A model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios', Water Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 79-132
5. K Klein Goldewijk, J G van Minnen, G J J Kreleman, M Vloedbeld and R Leemans, 'Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere,' Water Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 199-230;
6. G J J Kreileman and A F Bouwman, 'Computing land use emissions of greenhouse gases', Water Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 200-230;
7. R Leemans and G J van den Born, 'Determining the potential distribution of natural vegetation, crops and agricultural productivity', Water Air Soil Pollution, 76(1/2): 133-162.
8. R Leemans and G J van den Born, Water Air Soil Pollution Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 133-162;
9. G Zuidema, G J van den Born, J Alcamo and G J J Kreileman, 'Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors', Water Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 163-198
10. B J de Haan, M Jonas, O Klepper, J Krabec, M S Krol and K Olendrzynski, 'An atmosphere-ocean model for integrated assessment of global change, Wafer Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 283-318;
11. M S Krol and H J van der Woerd, 'Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios', Water Air Soil Pollution, Vol 76, Nos 1-2, 1994, pp 259-282
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14. 'Significant' is defined as 5% of the theoretical yield that would occur under ideal climate conditions, as computed by the FAO Crop Suitability model
15. FAO (Food and Agricultural Organization) Report on the agroecological zones project. Vol 3. Methodology and results for South and Central America. World Soil Resources Report 48/3. FAO, Rome, 1978
16. Leemans and van den Born, World Soil Resources Report op cit, Ref 4
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18. Leemans and van den Born, Journal of Biogeography op cit, Ref 4
19. Leemans and van den Born, Journal of Biogeography Ibid
20. X) and halocarbons are assumed to follow Baseline A
21. 2 emission level of Annex I countries by at least 20% by the year 2005
22. 2 eqúivalents.
23. I G Enting, T M L Wigley and M Heimann, Future emissions and concentrations of carbon dioxide. Technical Paper No 31, CSIRO, Australian Division of Atmospheric Research, Mordialloc, Australia, 1994
24. J Alcamo, M S Krol, and R Leemans, Stabilizing greenhouse gases: global and regional consequences, in: S Zwerver, R von Rompaey, M Kok, M Berk (eds.) Climate Change Research: Evaluation and Policy Implications, Elsevier Science: Amsterdam, 1994
25. Enting et al, Climate Change Research: Evaluation and Policy Implications op cit, Ref 17
26. 2 pathway
27. 2. These land use emissions are taken from the Baseline A scenario described in Alcamo et al, Climate Change Research: Evaluation and Policy Implications op cit, Ref 6
28. 2 are zero
29. 2 concentrations', Nature, Vol 379, 1996, pp 240-243
30. J Alcamo and G J J Kreileman, 'Interim environmental impacts of delaying emission controls', prepared for Workshop on Timing the Abatement of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Paris. 17-18 June, 1996
31. 2.
32. Leggett et al, Workshop on Timing the Abatement of Greenhouse Gas Emissions op cit, Ref 7
33. J Alcamo, A Bouwman, J Edmonds, A Grübler, T Morita, An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. In: Houghton, et al (eds) Climate Change 1994, Cambridge University Press, 1995
34. It is difficult to estimate the feasible limits of rates of emissions growth or reduction. However, we note that the highest rate of growth of the highest of the six IPCC reference (no control) emission scenarios was about +3%/year (Leggett et al, Climate Change 1994 op cit, Ref 7). As to the possible rate of emission reductions - a 4%/year reduction rate would reduce global emissions by 56% in 20 years, whereas a 1 % rate would reduce them by 18% in 20 years
35. This uncertain zone is derived by assigning a ±20% range around the specified limits of the indicators. This range takes into account the uncertainty of estimating the level of climate change that will affect ecosystems, and other valued components of the environment
36. R J Swart, G J J Kreileman, M Berk, M Jansen, J Bollen, R Leemans and H M S de Vries, The safe landing approach: risks and trade-offs in climate change', RIVM Report. In preparation
37. In this report we select 2010 as a target year for near-term policies. While this is arbitrary, it is nevertheless intermediate to the various target years now being discussed in international negotiations
38. 2 reduction targets and implementation strategies', c/o A Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, PO Box 12 01 61, D27515, Bremerhaven, Germany, 1995. Using mathematical techniques they have back calculated allowable emissions for a 'tolerable climate window'. This window is analogous to our setting of limits on climate indicators
39. 2 reduction targets and implementation strategies op cit, Ref 30
40. We note that corridors should only be calculated for a 'consistent' set of climate indicators, because the three climate indicators (change in global average surface temperature relative to 1990, rate of temperature change per decade, and change in global average sea level relative to 1990) are correlated with one another
41. 2 reduction targets and implementation strategies op cit, Ref 7
42. 2 reduction targets and implementation strategies Ibid
43. 2 emissions abatement: an overview of economic issues', presented to CGC workshop on: Incorporating technology issues into the consideration of policy responses to human induced climate change, 8-10 February, 1996, University of Maryland, USA.
44. See for example, P R Jonas, R J Charlson and H Rodhe, 'Aerosols', in IPCC, Climate Change 1994, Cambridge University Press, 1995
45. See for example, W Pepper, J Leggett, R Swart, J Wasson, J Edmonds and I Mintzer, Emission scenarios for the IPCC: an update. Assumptions, methodology and results. Prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I, 1992;
46. J Alcamo, M S Krol and M Posch, 'An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions, acid deposition, and climate change', Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, Vol 85, 1995, pp 1539-1550
47. Pepper et al. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution ibid
48. Pepper et al. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution Ibid
49. Ibid
50. WHO (World Health Organization), City Air Trends. Volume 1. WHO PEP 92.1, 1992
51. M Posch, J-P Hettelingh, J Alcamo, M Krol, 'Integrated scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe' in this issue
52. Leggett et al, Integrated scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe op cit, Ref 7