Uncertainty in perspective

Global Environmental Change

Volumn 6, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 121-157

  Van Asselt, Marjolein B A ^a   Rotmans, Jan ^b,c  

^a SWISS FEDERAL INSTITUTE OF AQUATIC SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Switzerland)

^b NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT   (Netherlands)

^c Division for Sustainable Development   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; MAN-ENVIRONMENT RELATIONS; METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEM; POPULATION; SUBJECTIVITY; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 0030153451     PISSN: 09593780     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/0959-3780(96)00015-5     Document Type: Article

References (132)

1. S O Funtowicz and J R Ravetz, 'Science for the post-normal age', Futures, Vol 25, No 7, 1993, pp 739-755
2. S O Funtowicz and J R Ravetz, 'Science for the post-normal age', Futures, Vol 25, No 7, 1993, pp 739-755, Ibid
3. J H Ausubel, 'Graphical representations of world population growth', Human Dimensions Quarterly, Vol 1, No 2, 1994, pp 17-19;
4. C Pahl-Wostl, C Jaeger, S Rayner, C Schaer, M van Asselt, D Imboden and A Vckovski, 'Integrated assessment of climate change and the problem of indeterminacy', in P Cebon, H Davies, D Imboden and C Jaeger (eds) Climate and Environment in the Alpine Region: An Interdisciplinary View, 1996;
5. N Eberstadt, 1995, 'Limits of statistical certainty: the case of population, food, and income, in R Bailey (ed) The True State of the Planet, The Free Press, New York, 1995;
6. Pahl-Wostl et al. show the dependency on the choice of statistical methods in the case of atmospheric and palaeontological data, while Eberstadt demonstrates something similar in the case of population, nutrition and income data
7. E A Parson, 'Integrated assessment and environmental policy making: in the pursuit of usefulness', Energy Policy, Vol 23, No 4/5, 1996, pp 463-475
8. J Rotmans and H Dowlatabadi, 'Integrated assessment of climate change: evaluation of methods and strategies', in S Rayner and E Malone (eds) Human Choice and Climate Change: An International Social Science Assessment, 1996
9. J Rotmans and B de Vries (eds) Insights, No Answers
10. Funtowicz and Ravetz, Insights, No Answers, op cit, Ref 1;
11. B Keepin and B Wynne, 'Technical analysis of the IIASA energy scenarios', Nature, Vol 312, 1984, pp 691-695;
12. S Shackley and B Wynne, 'Integrating knowledges for climate change: pyramids, nets and uncertainties', Global Environment Change, Vol 5, No 2, 1995, pp 113-126
13. G M Morgan and M Henrion, Uncertainty - A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990
14. Morgan and Henrion, Uncertainty - A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis, op cit, Ref 8
15. H C Frey, Quantitative Analysis of Uncertainty and Variability in Environmental Policy Making, Directorate for Science and Policy Programs, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, DC, 1992
16. 2 emissions rights: quantifying cultural perspectives'. Ecological Economics, Vol 13, 1994, pp 65-79
17. See also: M B A van Asselt and J Rotmans, Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling: a cultural perspective based approach, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-report No 461502009, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1995
18. Morgan and Henrion, Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Modelling: A Cultural Perspective Based Approach, op cit, Ref 8
19. A Tversky and D Kahneman, 'Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases', Science, Vol 185, 1974, pp 1124-1131;
20. A Tversky and D Kahneman, 'Causal schemas in judgements under uncertainty', in M Fishbein (ed) Progress in Social Psychology, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, 1980;
21. A Tversky and D Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice', Science, Vol 211, 1981, pp 453-458
22. J Rotmans et al, Global change and sustainable development: a modelling perspective for the next decade, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-report No 461502004, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1994
23. J Rotmans et al, Global change and sustainable development: a modelling perspective for the next decade, 1994, Ibid;
24. J Rotmans et al, TARGETS in transition, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-brochure, Bilthoven, 1995;
25. see also OECD, 'Environmental Indicators: Basic Concepts and Terminology', In Proceedings of the Workshop 'Indicators for use in environmental performance reviews', Paris, 1-2 February 1993
26. Rotmans, Proceedings of the Workshop 'Indicators for Use in Environmental Performance Reviews, op cit, Ref 15;
27. Rotmans, Proceedings of the Workshop 'Indicators for Use in Environmental Performance Reviews, op cit, Ref 16;
28. Rotmans and De Vries, Proceedings of the Workshop 'Indicators for Use in Environmental Performance Reviews, op cit, Ref 6
29. L W Niessen and J Rotmans, Sustaining health: towards an integrated global health model, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-report No 461502001, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1993;
30. L Niessen, H Hilderink, W J M Martens and J Rotmans, Roads to health: modelling the health transition?, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1996;
31. M G J den Elzen, A Beusen and J Rotmans, Global biogeochemical cycles: an integrated modelling approach, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-report No 461502008, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1995;
32. M G J den Elzen, H W Köster, B Strengers and H J M de Vries, The Global Land Model of TARGETS, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-report No 461502007, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1996;
33. H J M de Vries and R van den Wijngaard, The TARGETS/IMAGE Energy Model, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1995;
34. A Y Hoekstra, Aqua: a framework for integrated water policy, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-report No 461502006, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1995
35. W Zweers and J J Broersema (eds) Ecology, Technology and Culture: Essays in Environmental Philosophy, Van Arkel, Utrecht, 1994
36. Ecology, Technology and Culture: Essays in Environmental Philosophy, 1994, Ibid;
37. Pojman, Environmental Ethics: Readings in Theory and Application, Jones and Bartlett Publishers, Boston, MA, 1994
38. C S Moiling, 'Myths of ecological stability', in G Smart and W Stansbury (eds) Studies in Crisis Management, 1979;
39. C S Holling, The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems', in Sustainable Developments of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986;
40. P Timmerman, 'Myths and paradigms of intersections between development and environment', in W C Clark and R E Munn (ed) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1986
41. C S Holling, 'An ecologist view of the Malthusian Conflict', in K Lindahl-Kiessling and H Landberg (eds) Population, Economic Development, and the Environment, Oxford University Press, New York, 1994
42. C Kwa, 'Representations of nature mediating between ecology and science policy: the case of the International Biological Programme', Social Studies of Science, Vol 17, 1987, pp 413-442
43. M Thompson, R Ellis and A Wildavsky, Cultural Theory, Westview Press, Boulder, CO, 1990;
44. Zweers and Broersema, Cultural Theory, op cit, Ref 19
45. J Rousseau, Emile, 1762;
46. C Reich, The Greening of America, Random House, New York, 1970
47. D H Howe, Political Cultures of the American Whigs, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL, 1974
48. Zweers and Broersema, Political Cultures of the American Whigs, op cit, Ref 19
49. H Achterhuis, Nature between Myth and Technology, Ambo, Baarn (in Dutch), 1995;
50. F Bacon, The New Atlantis, 1628;
51. R Descartes, 'On the method' (in French), 1637
52. A Leopold, The Land Ethic, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1949
53. Zweers and Broersema, The Land Ethic, op cit, Ref 19
54. J E Lovelock, The Ages of Gaia: A Biography of our Living Earth, Norton and Company, New York, 1988
55. Zweers and Broersema, The Ages of Gaia: A Biography of Our Living Earth, op cit, Ref 19
56. Pojman, The Ages of Gaia: A Biography of Our Living Earth, op cit, Ref 20
57. M Douglas and A Wildavsky, Risk and Culture: Essays on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers, University of California Press, Berkley, CA, 1982;
58. Thompson et al, Risk and Culture: Essays on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers, op cit, Ref 24;
59. M Schwarz and M Thompson, Divided We Stand-Redefining Politics, Technology and Social Choice, Harvester Wheatsheaf, New York, 1990;
60. T O'Riordan and S Rayner, 'Risk management for global environmental change', Global Environmental Change, Vol 1, No 2, 1991, pp 91-108;
61. S Rayner, 'Disagreeing about risk: the institutional cultures of risk management and planning for future generations', in S G Hadden (ed) Risk Analysis, Institution and Public Policy, Associated Faculty Press, Port Washington, 1984;
62. S Rayner, 1991, 'A cultural perspective on the structure and implementation of global environmental agreements', Evaluation Review, Vol 15, No 1, 1991, pp 75-102;
63. S Rayner, 'Cultural theory and risk analysis', in G D Preagor (ed) Social Theory of Risk, Westport, CA, 1992;
64. S Rayner, Governance and the Global Commons, The Centre for the Study of Global Governance, London School of Economics, Discussion Paper 8, London, 1994
65. G Grendstad, Classifying Cultures, Norwegian Research Center on Organization and Management and Department of Comparative Politics, LOS report 9502, University of Bergen, Bergen, 1994
66. J L Simon, 'Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News', Science, Vol 208, 1980, pp 1431-1437;
67. J L Simon, 'Against the Doomsdayers', in The Ultimate Resource, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1981;
68. J L Simon, 'Scarcity or Abundance?: A Debate on the Environment', N Myers and J L Simon, Norton, New York, 1994
69. G Grendstad and P Selle, 'Ecology, Environmentalism and Political Cultures', Paper presented at IIASA workshop on 'Risk, Policy and Complexity', IIASA, Lauxenburg, August 1995
70. Zweers and Broersema, IIASA Workshop on 'Risk, Policy and Complexity', op cit, Ref 19
71. Grendstad and Selle, IIASA Workshop on 'Risk, Policy and Complexity', op cit, Ref 37
72. Rayner, IIASA Workshop on 'Risk, Policy and Complexity', Op cit, Ref 34
73. eg Rayner, IIASA Workshop on 'Risk, Policy and Complexity', op cit, Ref 34;
74. Schwarz and Thompson, IIASA Workshop on 'Risk, Policy and Complexity', op cit, Ref 34;
75. A Mazur, The inevitability - and limits - of dissent', 21 stC, Vol 1, No 3, 1996, pp 5-6, Colombia University, Colombia
76. E W Colglazier, 'Scientific uncertainties, public policy and global warming: how sure is sure enough?, Policy Studies Journal, Vol 19, No 2, 1991, pp 61-72
77. Morgan and Henrion, Policy Studies Journal, op cit, Ref 8
78. S Kuznets, Modern Economic Growth, Yale University Press, Yale, 1966
79. World Bank, World Development Report 1993, Oxford University Press, New York, 1993
80. N Eberstadt, 'Population, food, and income: global trends in the twentieth century', in R Bailey (ed) The True State of the Planet, The Free Press, New York, 1995
81. C C Mann, 'Population, growth and consequences', Dialogue, No 103, 1994, pp 25-29
82. T Malthus, Essays on Population, 1789;
83. P R Ehrlich, The Population Bomb, Ballantine, New York, 1968;
84. L R Brown and H Kane, Full House: Reassessing the Earth's Population Carrying Capacity, W W Norton & Co, New York, 1994
85. B Robey, S O Rutstein, L Morris and R Blackburn, 'The reproductive revolution: new survey findings', Population Report Series, No 11, 1992, special issue
86. G Hardin, 'The tragedy of the commons', Science, Vol 162, 1968;
87. T Coffin, 'Earth, the crowded planet', The Washington Spectator, Vol 17, 1991;
88. N Keyfitz, Are There Ecological Limits to Population?, WP-93-16, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 1993;
89. M H King and C M Elliott, 'Cairo: damp squib or Roman candle?', The Lancet, Vol 344, August 1994, p 528
90. D L Meadows, D H Meadows and J Randers, Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World, Wright-Allen Press, Cambridge, UK, 1972;
91. D L Meadows, D H Meadows and J Randers, Beyond the Limits, Earthscan Publications, London, 1991;
92. G J Mitchell, World on Fire: Saving an Endangered Earth, Charles Scribner's Sons, New York, 1991;
93. N Myers and J L Simon, Scarcity or Abundance?: A Debate on the Environment, New York, 1994;
94. A Gore, Earth in the Balance: Ecology and Human Spirit, Plume, New York, 1992
95. G S Becker, A Treatise on the Family, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1991;
96. H Pritchett, 'Desired Fertility and the Impact of Population Policies', Population and Development Review, Vol 20, 1994, pp 1-55
97. W Petty, Another Essay in Political Arithmetic, 1682,
98. reprinted in C H Hull (ed) 'The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty' (1899), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK;
99. Simon, The Economic Writings of Sir William Petty, op cit, Ref 36
100. J Kasun, The Unjust War Against Population, Ignatius, San Francisco, CA, 1988;
101. Eberstadt, The Unjust War Against Population, op cit, Ref 47
102. Simon, The Unjust War Against Population, op cit, Ref 36;
103. I M Goklany, 'Richer is Cleaner: Long-Term Trends in Global Air Quality', in R Bailey (ed) The True State of the Planet, The Free Press, New York, 1995
104. H A W van Vianen, F J Willekens, I Hutter, M B A van Asselt, H Hilderink, L W Niessen and J Rotmans, 'Fertility Change: A Global Integrated Perspective', National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), RIVM-Report No 461502008, Globo Report Series, Bilthoven, 1994;
105. Niessen et al, Fertility Change: A Global Integrated Perspective, op cit, Ref 18
106. Rotmans and De Vries, Fertility Change: A Global Integrated Perspective, op cit, Ref 6
107. E Bos, M T Vu, A Levin and R Bulatao, World Population Projections 1992-93, John S Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, MD, published for the World Bank, 1992;
108. UN, 'World population prospects, the 1992 revision', Population Studies, Vol 135, 1993, special issue;
109. IPCC, Climate Change 1992 - The Supplementary Report to The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1992
110. W W Murdoch and A Oaten, 'Population and Food: A Critique of Lifeboat Ethics', Bioscience, Vol 25, 1975
111. World Bank, Bioscience, op cit, Ref 46
112. World Bank, Bioscience, op cit, Ref 46
113. N Stehr, H von Storch and M Flugel, The 19th Century Discussion of Climate Variability and Climate Change: Analogies for Present Debate?, Max Planck Institute for Meterology, Report No 157, Hamburg, 1995
114. E Brückner, To what extent is the present climate constant?', in Verhandlungen des VIII. Deutschen Geographentages in Berlin, Teubner, Leipzig (in German), 1889;
115. S A Arrhenius, 'On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground', Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science, Vol 41, 1896, pp 237-276;
116. J Hann, Handbook of Climatology, Engelhorn, Stuttgart (in German, English edition 1903, Macmillan, New York, 1897
117. eg J Hansen, I Fung, A Lacis, D Rind, S Lebedeff, F Ruedy and G Russel, 'Global climate change as forecasted by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three Dimensional Model', Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol 93, 1988, pp 9341-9363;
118. R A Houghton and G M Woodwell, 'Global climatic change', Scientific American, Vol 260, 1989, pp 36-44;
119. J Leggett, Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1990;
120. C Flavin, The heat is on: the greenhouse effect', in L Brown (ed) Worldwatch Reader, Norton, New York, 1991
121. eg R S Lindzen, 'Some coolness concerning global warming', Bulletin American Meteorological Society, Vol 71, No 3, 1990;
122. D L Ray and L Guzzo, 'The Greenhouse Effect: Hype and Hysteria', in 'Trashing the Planet', Regenery Gateway, Washington, DC, 1990;
123. R C Balling, 'Global warming: messy models, decent data, and pointless policy', in R Bailey (ed) The True State of the Planet, The Free Press, New York, 1995
124. eg W S Broekner, 'Unpleasant Surprises in the Greenhouse?', Nature, Vol 328, 1987, pp 123-126;
125. S Schneider, The changing global climate', Scientific American, Vol 261, No 3, 1989, pp 38-47;
126. IPCC, Climate Change, The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990;
127. IPCC, Climate Change, the IPCC Scientific Assessment, op cit, Ref 59;
128. IPCC, Radiative Forcing of Climate 1994, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994
129. M G Morgan and D W Keith, 'Subjective judgments by climate experts', Environmental Science and Technology, Vol 29, No 4/5, 1995, pp 468-476
130. Den Elzen et al, Environmental Science and Technology, op cit, Ref 18
131. see, for example, S Shackley and B Wynne, 'Response to the letters of Boehmer-Christiansen, and Van Asselt and Rotmans', Science and Public Policy, Vol 22, No 6, 1995, pp 5-6
132. M A Janssen, The Battle of Perspectives, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM), Globo-working paper 3, Bilthoven, 1995