A simple and logical alternative for making PERT time estimates

IIE Transactions (Institute of Industrial Engineers)

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 1996, Pages 183-192

  Hing Ling Lau, Amy ^a   Lau, Hon Shiang ^a   Zhang, Yue ^a  

^a OKLAHOMA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ERRORS; ESTIMATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; SET THEORY;

NUMERICAL ERRORS; PROBABILITY ELICITATION;

PERT;

EID: 0030108497     PISSN: 0740817X     EISSN: 15458830     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07408179608966265     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Alpert, M., and Raiffa, H., (1969) A progress report on the training of probability Assessors. Unpublished manuscript. Harvard University.
2. Buffa, E., and Miller, J., (y1979 y) Production-Inventory Systems, Irwin, Illinois.
3. Chase, R., and Aquilano, N., (1989) Production and Operations Management. Irwin, Illinois.
4. Chesley, G.R., (1975) Elicitation of subjective probabilities a review. The Accounting Review, 60 (2), 325–337.
5. Cleland, D., and King, W., (1975) Systems Analysis and Project Management, McGraw-Hill, New York.
6. Decoster, D., (1974) The budget director and PERT, in Accounting for Managerial Decision Making, DeCoster D. et at. (eds), Melville Publishing Company. California.
7. Donaldson, W.A., (1965) Estimation of the mean and variance of a PERT activity time. Operations Research, 13. 382–385.
8. Fogarty, D., and Hoffmann, T., (1983) Production and Inventory Management, South-western Publishing Company, Ohio.
9. Frankel, E., (1990) Project Management in Engineering Services and Development, Butterworth, London.
10. Gallagher, C., (1987) A note on PERT assumptions. Management Science. 33. 1360.
11. Grubbs, F.E., (1962) Attempts to validate some PERT statistics or ‘picking on PERT’. Operations Research, 10, 912–915.
12. Hampton, J.M., Moore, P.G., and Thomas, H., (1973) Subjective probability and its measurements. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A136 (1), 21–42.
13. Healy, T.H., (1961) Activity subdivision and PERT probability statements. Operations Research, 9, 341–348.
14. Hillier, F., and Lieberman, G., (1986) Introduction to Operations Research, Holden-Day, California.
15. IMSL (1987) IMSL Library User's Manual, IMSL, Houston.
16. Johnson, N.L., and Kotz, S., (1970) Continuous Univariate Distributions, vols. 1 and Houghton Mifflin, New York.
17. Kendall, M.G., and Stuart, A., (1969) The Advanced Theory of Statistics, Hafner Publishing Company, New York.
18. Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B., and Phillips, L., (1982) Calibration of probabilities the state of the art to 1980, in Judgement under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases, Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. and Tversky, A. (eds), Cambridge University Press, New York.
19. Littlefield, T., and Randolph, P., (1987) An answer to Sasieni's question on PERT times. Management Science, 33. 1357–1359.
20. MacCrimmon, K.R., and Ryavec, C.A., (1964) Analytical study of PERT assumptions. Operations Research, 12. 16–36.
21. Malcolm. D G, Roseboom. J H., Clark, C., EFazar, W.,(1959) Application ol a technique for research and development program evaluation. Operations Research, 7, 646–669.
22. Markland, R.E., and Sweigart, J.R., Quantitative Methods Applications to Managerial Decision Making, John Wiley, New York.
23. Moder, J.J., and Rodgers, E.G., (1968) Judgement estimates of themoments of PERT type distributions. Management Sttentc, 15, pB76–B83 p.
24. Murphy, A.H., Winkler, R.L., (1974) Subjective probability forecasting experiments in meteorology some preliminary results. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 55. 1206–1216.
25. Ostwald, P., (1974) Cost Estimating for Engineering and Management, Prentice-Hall. New Jersey.
26. Pearson, E., Tukey, J., (1965) Approximate means and standard deviations based on distances between percentage points of frequency curves. Biometrika 52, 533–546.
27. Perry, C., and Greig, I.D., (1975) Estimating the mean and variance of subjective distributions in PERT and decision analysis. Management Science, 21, 1477–1480.
28. Sasieni, M. W., (1986) A note on PERT times. Management Science. 32. 1652–1653.
29. Sclvidge, J.E., (1980) Assessing the extremes of probability distributions by the fractile method. Decision Sciences. 11. 493–502.
30. Solomon, I., (1982) Probability assessment by individual auditors and audit teams an empirical investigation. Journal of Accounting Research, 20, 689–710.
31. Spetzler, C.S., Stael von Holstein, C-A. S., (1975) Probability encoding in decision analysis. Management Science, 22, 340–358.
32. Swanson, L.A., Pazer, H.L., (1971) Implications of the underlying assumptions of PERT. Decision Science, 2. 461–480.
33. Taha, H., (1987) Operations Research. An Introduction, MacMillan, New York.
34. Trout, M., (1989) On the generality of the PERT average time formula. Decision Sciences. 20, 410–412.
35. Van Home, J., (1980) Financial Management and Policy. Prentice-Hall, New Jersey.
36. Vatter, P., Bradley, S., Frey, S., Jackson, B., (1978) Quantitative Methods in Management, Irwin. Illinois.
37. Wallsten, T., Budescu, D., (1983) Encoding subjective probabilities;a psychological and psychometric review. Management Science. 29. 151–173.
38. Wiest, J., Levy, F., (1977) A Management Guide to PERT/CPM. Prcnlice-Hall, New Jersey.
39. Winkler, R., (1967) The assessment of prior distributions in Bayesian analysis. Journal of the American Standard Association, 62. 776–800.
40. Winterfeldt, D., and Edwards, W., (1986) Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge