Predicting the effect of varicella vaccine on subsequent cases of zoster and varicella

Reviews in Medical Virology

Volumn 6, Issue 3, 1996, Pages 151-161

  Garnett, G P ^a   Ferguson, N M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CHICKENPOX VACCINE;

CHICKENPOX; DISEASE COURSE; HERPES ZOSTER; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; PREDICTION; REVIEW; VACCINATION; VARICELLA ZOSTER VIRUS;

EID: 0029842083     PISSN: 10529276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1654(199609)6:3<151::AID-RMV172>3.0.CO;2-V     Document Type: Review

References (42)

1. Fenner, F., Henderson, D. A., Arita, I., Jezek, Z. and Ladayi, I. D. (1988). Smallpox and its Eradication. World Health Organisation, Geneva.
2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1995). Summary of notifiable diseases United States 1994. MMWR 43.
3. Expanded Programme on Immunisation (1995). Statement on poliomyelitis eradication. Weekly Epidemiological Record, 70, 345-347.
4. Anderson, R. M. and Nokes, D. J. (1991). Epidemiological approaches: mathematical models of transmission and control. In, Oxford Textbook of Public Health, 2nd edn, ed by W. W. Holland, R. Detels and E. G. Knox. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
5. Nightingale, S. L. (1995). Varicella virus-vaccine live licensed. JAMA 273, 1564.
6. Lieu, T. A., Cochi, S. L., Black, S. B. et al. (1994). Cost-effectiveness of a routine varicella vaccination program for U.S. children. JAMA 271, 375-381.
7. Preblud, S. R., Orenstein, W. A., Kaplan, J. P., Bart, K. J. and Hinman, A. R. (1985). A benefit-cost analysis of a childhood varicella vaccine programme. Postgrad. Med. J. 61 (suppl. 4), S17-S22.
8. Huse, D. M., Miessner, H. C., Lacey, M. J. and Oster, G. (1994). Childhood vaccination against chickenpox: an analysis of benefits and costs. J. Pediatr. 124, 869-874.
9. Committee on Issues and Priorities for New Vaccine Development (1984). Priorities for New Vaccine Development. National Institutes for Health, Washington.
10. Bannister, P. and Crosse, B. (1989). Severe herpes-zoster infection in the United Kingdom: experience in a regional infectious disease unit. J. Roy. Soc. Med. 82, 145-146.
11. Weller, T. H. (1992). Varicella and herpes zoster: a perspective and overview. J. Infect. Dis. 166 (suppl. 1): S1-S6.
12. Hope-Simpson, R. E. (1965). The nature of herpes-zoster: a long term study and a new hypothesis. Proc. R. Soc. Med. 58, 9-20.
13. Anderson, R. M. and May, R. M. (1991). Infections Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
14. Weller, T. H. (1983). Varicella and herpes zoster: changing concepts of the natural history, control and importance of a not so benign virus. N. Engl. J. Med. 309, 1362-1440.
15. Arvin, A. M. (1992). Cell-mediated immunity to varicella-zoster virus. J. Infect. Dis. 166 (suppl. 1), S35-S41.
16. Ferguson, N. M., Nokes, D. J. and Anderson, R. M. (1996). Dynamical complexity in age-structured models of the measles virus: epidemiological implications at high levels of vaccine uptake. Epidemiol. Inf. Submitted.
17. Bolker, B. M. and Grenfell, B. T. (1993). Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 251, 75-81.
18. Schenzle, D. (1984). An age-structured model of preand post-vaccination measles dynamics. IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol 1, 169-191.
19. Preblud, S. R., Orenstein, W. A. and Bart, K. J. (1984). Varicella: clinical manifestations, epidemiology and health impact in children. Pediatr. Infect. Dis. 3, 505-509.
20. Garnett, G. P. (1990). The Population Biology of Varicella-zoster Virus. PhD Thesis, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
21. Ferguson, N. M., Anderson, R. M. and Garnett, G. P. (1996). Mass vaccination to control chickenpox: the influence of zoster. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. in press.
22. Garnett, G. P. and Grenfell, B. T. (1992). The epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus infections: a mathematical model. Epidemiol. Infect. 108, 495-511.
23. Garnett, G. P. and Grenfell, B. T. (1992). The epidemiology of varicella-zoster virus infections: the influence of varicella on the prevalence of herpes-zoster. Epidemiol. Infect. 108, 513-528.
24. Pallett, A. P. and Nicholls, M. W. N. (1986). Varicella-zoster: reactivation or reinfection? Lancet i, 84-87.
25. Jako, G. J. and Jako, R. A. (1986). A short historical note: connection between varicella and herpes zoster. J. Med. 17, 267-270.
26. Hope-Simpson, R. E. (1954). Studies on shingles - is the virus ordinary chickenpox virus? Lancet ii, 1299-1302.
27. Bartlett, M. S. (1957). Measles periodicity and community size. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 120, 48-70.
28. Bartlett, M. S. (1960). The critical community size for measles in the U.S. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 123, 37-44.
29. Black, F. L. (1966). Measles endemicity in insular populations: critical community size and its evolutionary implications. J. Theor. Biol. 11, 207-211.
30. Black, F. L., Hierholzer, W. J., Pinheiro, F.dP. et al. (1974). Evidence for the persistence of infectious disease agents in isolated human populations. Am. J. Epidemiol. 100, 230-250.
31. Gordon, J. E. (1962). Chickenpox an epidemiological review. Am. J. Med. Sci. 244, 362-385.
32. Fleming, D. M., Norbury, C. A. and Crombie, D. L. (1991). Annual and seasonal variation in the incidence of common diseases. Twenty-three years experience of the Weekly Returns Service of the Royal College of General Practitioners. Occasional Paper. Royal College of General Practitioners 53, 5-7.
33. Glynn, C., Crockford, G., Gavaghan, D., Cardno, P., Price, D. and Miller, J. (1990). Epidemiology of shingles. J. R. Soc. Med. 83, 617-619.
34. Hellgren, L. and Hersle, K. A. (1966). Statistical and clinical study of herpes zoster. Gerant. Clin. 8, 70-76.
35. Fine, P. E. M. (1993). Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol. Rev. 15, 265-302.
36. McLean, A. R. (1992). Mathematical modelling of the immunisation of populations. Rev. Med. Virol. 2, 141-152.
37. Halloren, M. E., Cochi, S. L., Lieu, T. A., Wharton, M. and Fehrs, L. (1994). Theoretical epidemiological and morbidity effects of routine varicella immunization of preschool children in the United States. Am. J. Epidemiol. 140, 81-104.
38. Gershon, A. A., LaRussa, P., Hardy, I., Steinberg, S. and Silverstein, S. (1992). Varicella vaccine: the American experience. J. Infect. Dis. 166 (suppl. 1), S63-S68.
39. Clements, D. A., Armstrong, C. B., Ursano, A. M., Moggio, M. M., Walter, E. B. and Wilfert, C. M. (1995). Over 5-year follow-up of OKA/Merck varicella vaccine recipients in 465 infants and adolescents. Pediatr. Infect. Dis J. 14, 874-879.
40. Bernstein, H. H., Rothstein, E. P., Watson, B. M. et al. (1993). Clinical survey of natural varicella compared with breakthrough varicella after immunization with live attenuated Oka/Merck varicella vaccine. Pediatrics 92, 833-837.
41. Hughes, P., LaRussa, P., Pearce, J. M., Lepow, M., Steinberg, S. and Gersho, A. (1994). Transmission of varicella-zoster virus from a vaccine with leukemia, demonstrated by polymerase chain reaction. J. Pediatr. 124, 932-935.
42. Levin, M. J., Murray, M., Zerbe, G. O., White, C. J. and Hayward, A. R. (1994). Immune responses of elderly persons 4 years after receiving a live attenuated varicella vaccine J. Infect. Dis. 170, 522-526.