The consequences of uncertainty for the prediction of the effects of schistosomiasis control programmes

Epidemiology and Infection

Volumn 117, Issue 3, 1996, Pages 537-550

  Chan, M S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTISCHISTOSOMAL AGENT;

ARTICLE; HEALTH PROGRAM; IMMUNITY; INFECTION CONTROL; REINFECTION; SCHISTOSOMIASIS; SIMULATION; WORM INFECTION;

EID: 0029769550     PISSN: 09502688     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0950268800059239     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. WHO. The control of schistosomiasis. Geneva : World Health Organisation, 1993. (Technical Report Series; vol. 830.)
2. WHO. Progress in the assessment of morbidity due to schistosomiasis. Geneva: World Health Organisation, 1989.
3. Warren KS, Bundy DAP, Anderson RM, et al. Helminth infections. In: Jamison DT, Mosley WH, Measham AR, Bobadilla JL, eds. Disease control priorities in developing countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993.
4. Hairston NG. On the mathamatical analysis of schistosome populations. Bull WHO 1965; 33: 45-62.
5. MacDonald G. The dynamics of helminth infections, with special reference to schistosomes. Trans Royal Soc Trop Med Hyg 1965; 59: 489-506.
6. Anderson RM, May RM. Herd immunity to helminth infection and implications for parasite control. Nature 1985; 315: 493-6.
7. Anderson RM, May RM. Helminth infections of humans: mathematical models, population dynamics and control. Adv Parasitol 1985; 24: 1-101.
8. Woolhouse MEJ. On the application of mathematical models of schistosome transmission dynamics. 1. Natural transmission. Acta Tropica 1991; 49: 241-70.
9. Chan MS, Guyatt HL, Bundy DAP, Booth M, Fulford A, Medley GF. The development of an age structured model for schistosomiasis transmission dynamics and its validation for Schistosoma mansoni. Epidemiol Infect 1995; 115: 325-44.
10. Plaisier AP, van Oortmarsenn GJ, Habbema JDF, Remme J, Alley ES. ONCHOSIM: a model and computer simulation program for the transmission and control of onchocerciasis. Comp Methods Prog Biomed 1990; 31: 43-56.
11. Chan MS, Guyatt HL, P Bundy DAP, Medley GF. Dynamic models of schistosomiasis morbidity. Am J Trop Med Hyg 1996; 51: 52-62.
12. Chan MS, Anderson RM, Medley GF, Bundy DAP. Dynamic aspects of morbidity and acquired immunity in schistosomiasis control. Acta Tropica 1996. In press.
13. Chan MS, Bundy DAP. The effects of community chemotherapy on patterns of morbidity due to Schistosoma mansoni. Trans Roy Soc Trop Med Hyg 1996. In press.
14. Blower SM, Dowlatabadi H. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission : an HIV model, as an example. Internat Stat Rev 1994; 62: 229-43.
15. Blower SM, Hartel D, Dowlatabadi H, Anderson RM, May RM. Drugs, sex and HIV: a mathematical model for New York City. Philosoph Trans Royal Soc London, Series B, Biological Sciences 1991; 331: 171-87.
16. Rowley JT, Dowlatabadi H, Anderson RM. The potential magnitude and demographic consequences of the HIV epidemic: parameter uncertainties and the reliability of model projections. J AIDS 1996. In press.
17. Lord CC, Woolhouse MEJ, Rawlings P, Mellor PS. Simulation studies of African Horse Sickness and Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceraopogonidae). J Med Entomol 1996; 33: 328-38.
18. McKay MD, Beckman RJ, Conover WJ. A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code. Technometrics 1979; 21: 239-45.
19. Iman RL, Conover WJ. Small sample sensitivity analysis techniques for computer models, with an application to risk assessment. Communications Stats 1980; A9: 1749-842.
20. Butterworth AE, Sturrock RF, Ouma JH, et al. Comparison of different chemotherapy strategies against Schistosoma mansoni in Machakos District, Kenya: effects on human infection and morbidity. Parasitol 1991; 103: 339-55.
21. RIVM. UNCSAM version 1.1 Uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo sampling. 1.1 ed. The Netherlands: National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, 1992.
22. Woolhouse MEJ. A theoretical framework for the immunoepidemiology of human helminth infection. Parasite Immunol 1992; 14: 563-78.
23. Cheever AW. A quantitative post-mortem study of Schistosomiasis mansoni in man. Am J Trop Med Hyg 1968; 17: 38-64.
24. Domingues L, Silveira M, Lima JF, Carreiro JC, Keiner S. Removal of 5. mansoni in patients with hepatosplenic schistosomiasis : an estimate of the parasitological load by means of quantitative coproscopy. Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo 1983; 25: 2-15.
25. Booth M. The epidemiology and population biology of multiple infections with Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworms. Doctoral thesis: London: University of London, Imperial College, 1994.
26. de Vlas SJ, Gryseels, B, van Oortmarssen GJ, Polderman AM, Habbema JDF. A model for variations in single and repeated egg counts in Schistosoma mansoni infections. Parasitology 1990; 104: 451-9.
27. Butterworth AE, Dunne DW, Fulford AJ, et al. Human immunity to Schistosoma mansoni: observations on mechanisms, and implications for control. Immunol Invest 1992; 21: 391-407.
28. Maizels RM, Bundy DAP, Selkirk ME, Smith DF, Andersen RM. Immunological modulation and evasion by helminth parasites in human populations. Nature 1993; 365: 797-805.