Risk-based environmental remediation: Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis and the expected value of sample information

Risk Analysis

Volumn 16, Issue 1, 1996, Pages 67-79

  Dakins, Maxine E ^a,e   Toll, John E ^b   Small, Mitchell J ^c   Brand, Kevin P ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF IDAHO   (United States)

^b Parametrix Inc   (United States)

^c CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^e NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis; decision analysis; New Bedford Harbor; PCBs; value of information

Indexed keywords

POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYL; SEA WATER;

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; BODY BURDEN; COST; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; FISH; POLLUTION TRANSPORT; SYSTEM ANALYSIS; WATER POLLUTION;

ANIMALS; BAYES THEOREM; BODY BURDEN; ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION; FLOUNDER; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; POLYCHLORINATED BIPHENYLS; RISK; SAMPLING STUDIES; WATER POLLUTANTS, CHEMICAL;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; ENVIRONMENTAL FATE-AND-TRANSPORT MODEL; ENVIRONMENTAL REMEDIATION; MODELLING APPROACH; PCB; WINTER FLOUNDER;

USA, MASSACHUSETTS, NEW BEDFORD HARBOUR;

EID: 0029669727     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1995.tb00765.x     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. G. Weaver, "PCB Contamination of the Scallop Capital," Pollut. Eng. 18, 38-40 (1986)
2. A. H. Clites, T. D. Fontaine, and J. R. Wells, "Distributed Costs of Environmental Contamination," Ecol. Econ. 3, 215-229 (1991).
3. "State Targets PCB 'hot spot,' " Engin. News Rec. 224, 12 (1990).
4. J. P. Connolly, "Application of a Food Chain Model to Polychlorinated Biphenyl Contamination of the Lobster and Winter Flounder Food Chains in New Bedford Harbor,'' Environ. Sci Technol. 25, 760-770 (1991).
5. M. E. Dakins, J. E. Toll, and M. J. Small, "Risk-Based Environmental Remediation: Decision Framework and Role of Uncertainty," Environ Toxicol. Chem., 13(12), 1907-1915 (1994).
6. D. M. Erdy, "The Confidence Profile Method: A Bayesian Method for Assessing Health Technologies," Operations Res. 37, 210-228 (1989).
7. R. L. Iman and S. C. Hora, "Bayesian Methods for Modeling Recovery Times with an Application to the Loss of off-site Power at Nuclear Power Plants," Risk Anal 9, 25-36 (1989).
8. R. L. Wolpert, L J. Steinberg, and K. H Reckhow, "Bayesian Decision Support Using Environmental Transport-and-Fate Models," in C. Gatsonis, J. Hodges, R. Kass, and N. Singpurwalla (eds ), Bayesian Statistics and Technology: Case Studies (Springer-Verlag, New York, 1992)
9. E. G. Reichard and J. S. Evans, "Assessing the Value of Hydrogeological Information for Risk-Based Remedial Action Decisions," Water Resour. Res. 225 (7), 1451-1460 (1989).
10. R. L. Iman and J. C. Helton, "An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models," Risk Anal. 8(1), 71-90 (1988).
11. M. D. McKay, R. J. Beckman, and W. J. Conover, "A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code," Technometrics 21, 239-245 (1979).
12. M. B. Beck, "Water Quality Modeling: A Review of the Analysis of Uncertainty," Water Res. Res. 23, 1393-1442 (1987).
13. G. M. Hornberger and R. C. Spear, "Eutrophication in Peel Inlet 2: Identification of Critical Uncertainties via Generalized Sensitivity Analysis," Water Res. 14, 43-49 (1980).
14. T. J. Woodruff, F. Y. Bois, D. Auslander, and R. C. Spear, "Structure and Parameterization of Pharmacokinetic Models. Their Impact on Model Predictions," Risk Anal. 12(2), 189-210 (1992).
15. D. W. Dilks, R P Canale, and P. G. Meier, Analysis of Model Uncertainty Using Bayesian Monte Carlo, Proceedings of ASCE Specialty Conference on Environmental Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, New York, pp 571-577 (1989).
16. D W. Dilks, R. P Canale, and P. G. Meier, "Development of Bayesian Monte Carlo Techniques for Water Quality Model Uncertainty," Ecol Modell. 62, 149-162 (1992).
17. A. Patwardhan and M. J. Small, "Bayesian Methods for Model Uncertainty Analysis with Application to Future Sea Level Rise," Risk Anal. 12, 513-523 (1992).
18. M J. Small and M. D. Escobar, "Discussion of Paper by Wolpert et al ," in C Gatsonis, X. J. Hodges, R. Kass, and N. Singpurwalla (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics and Technology: Case Studies (Springer Verlag, New York, 1992).
19. K. P. Brand and M. J. Small, "Updating Uncertainty in an Integrated Risk Assessment Conceptual Framework and Methods," Risk Anal., in press.
20. A. M. Finkel and J. S Evans, "Evaluating the Benefits of Uncertainty Reduction in Environmental Health Risk Management," J. Air Pollut Control Assoc. 37, 1164-1171 (1987).
21. R. A. Freeze, J. Massmann, L. Smith, T. Sperling, and B. James, "Hydrogeological Decision Analysis: 1 A Framework," Ground Water 28(5), 738-766 (1990)
22. B. R. James and R. A. Freeze, "The Worth of Data in Predicting Aquitard Continuity in Hydrogeological Design," Water Res Res. 29(7), 2049-2065 (1993)
23. K. H. Reckhow, "Importance of Scientific Uncertainty in Decision Making," Environ. Manage. 18(2), 161-166 (1993).
24. M. J. Small, "Integrated Assessment of Environmental Risk and Human Response, in Y. Y. Haimes, D. A. Moser, and E. Z. Stakhiv (eds.), Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources V (American Society of Civil Engineers, Santa Barbara, CA, 1991), pp. 78-91.
25. A. C. Taylor, J. S. Evans, and T. E. McKone, "The Value of Animal Test Information in Environmental Control Decisions," Risk Anal. 13(4), 403-412 (1993).
26. J. R. Yearsley and D. P. Lettenmaier, "Model Complexity and Data Worth: An Assessment of Changes in the Global Carbon Budget," Ecol. Modell. 39, 201-226 (1987).
27. M. E. Pate'-Cornell and P. S. Fischbeck, "Aversion to Epistemic Uncertainties in Rational Decision Making: Effects on Engineering Risk Management," in Y. Y. Haimes, D. A Moser, and E. Z. Stakhiv (eds.), Risk-Based Decision Making in Water Resources V (American Society of Civil Engineers, Santa Barbara, CA 1991), pp. 200-218
28. P. R. Jaffe and R. A. Ferrara, "Modeling Sediment and Water Column Interactions for Hydrophobic Pollutants," Water Res. 18(9), 1169-1174 (1984).
29. A. C. Taylor, "Using Objective and Subjective Information to Develop Distributions for Probabilistic Exposure Assessment," J. Exp. Anal. Environ. Epidemiol. 3, 285-298 (1993).