Nonlinear dynamics of the Great Salt Lake: Nonparametric short-term forecasting

Water Resources Research

Volumn 32, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 975-985

  Lall, Upmanu ^a,d   Sangoyomi, Taiye ^b   Abarbanel, Henry D I ^c  

^a Utah State University   (United States)

^b Hydrosphere Resource Consultants Inc   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^d UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DYNAMICS; FORECASTING; LAKE; MODEL; NONLINEAR SYSTEM; SALT LAKE; SKELETON; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE FLUCTUATION; CLOSED BASIN; LAKE VOLUME;

USA, UTAH, GREAT SALT LAKE;

EID: 0029663601     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/95WR03402     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Abarbanel, H. D. I., and U. Lall, Nonlinear dynamics of the Great Salt Lake: System identification and prediction, Clim. Dyn., in press, 1996.
2. Abarbanel, H. D. L, R. Brown, J. B. Kadtke, Prediction in chaotic nonlinear systems: Methods for time series with broadband Fourier spectra, Phys. Rev. A, 41(4), 1782-1807, 1990.
3. Abarbanel, H. D. I., R. Brown, J. J. Sidorowich, and L. S. Tsimring, The analysis of observed chaotic data in physical systems, Rev. Mod. Phys., 65(N4), 1331-1392, 1993.
4. Arnow, T., and D. Stephens, Hydrologic characteristics of the Great Salt Lake, Utah: 1847-1986, U.S. Geol Surv. Water Supply Pap. 2332, 1990.
5. Burroughs, W. J., Weather Cycles: Real or Imaginary?, 201 pp., Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1992.
6. Casdagli, M., Nonlinear prediction of chaotic time series, Phys. D, 35, 335-356, 1989.
7. Casdagli, M., A dynamical systems approach to modeling input-output systems, in Nonlinear Prediction and Modeling, Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., 1991.
8. Cayan, D. R., and D. H. Peterson, The influence of North Pacific atmospheric circulation on strcamflow in the West, in Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and the Western Americas, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., vol. 55, edited by D. H. Peterson, pp. 375-397, AGU, Washington, D. C, 1989.
9. Cayan, D. R., and R. H. Webb, El Nino/Southern Oscillation and streamflow in the western United States, in El Nino, Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation, edited by Henry F. Diaz and Vera Margraf, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 1992.
10. Craven, P., and G. Wahba, Smoothing noise data with spline functions, Numer. Math., 31, 377-403, 1979.
11. de Boor, C., A practical guide to splines, in Applied Mathematical Sciences, vol. 27, 392 pp., Springer Verlag, New York, 1978.
12. Farmer, J. D., and J. J. Sidorowich, Predicting chaotic time series, Phys. Rev. Lett., 59(8), 845-848, 1987.
13. Friedman, J. H., Multivariate adaptive regression splines, Ann. Stat., 19(1), 1-141, 1991.
14. Ghil. M., and Vautard, R., Interdecadal oscillations and the warming trend in global temperature time series, Nature, 350, 324-327, 1991.
15. James, L. D., D. S. Bowles, W. R. James, and R. V. Canfield, Estimation of water surface elevation probabilities and associated damages for the Great Salt Lake, Utah Water Res. Lab., Utah State Univ., Logan, 1979.
16. James, L. D., D. S. Bowles, R. V. Canfield, D. G. Chadwick, N. Stauffer, and J. P. Riley, Estimating water surface elevation probabilities for the Great Salt Lake, Utah Water Res. Lab., Utah State Univ., Logan, 1985.
17. Kahya, E., and J. A. Dracup, U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Water Resour, Res., 29(8), 2491-2503, 1993.
18. Lall, U., and K. Bosworth, Multivariate Kernel Estimation of Functions of Space and Time Hydrologic Data, in Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, ed. K. Hipcl, Kluwer, Norwell, Mass., 1994.
19. Lall, U., and M. Mann, The Great Salt Lake: A barometer of low-frecquency climatic variability, Water Resour. Res., 57(10), 2503-2515, 1995.
20. Lall, U., and A. Sharma, A nearest neighbor bootstrap for resampling hydrologic time series, Water Resour. Res., 32(3), 679-693, 1996.
21. Lorenz, E. N., Deterministic non-periodic flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963.
22. Lorenz, E. N., Nondeterministic theories of climatic change, Q. Res., 6, 496-506, 1976.
23. Mann, M. E., and J. Park, Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, 1055-1058, 1993.
24. Mann, M. E., and J. Park, Global scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century time scales, J. Geophys. Res., 99, 25,819-25,833, 1994.
25. Mann, M. E., U. Lall, and B. Saltzman, Decadal-to-century scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake, Geophys. Res Lett., 22, 937-940. 1995.
26. Owosina, A., U. Lall, T. Sangoyomi, and K. Bosworth, Methods for assessing the space and time variability of groundwater data, NTlS I4-08-001-G1738, Natl. Tech. Inf. Serv., Springfield, Va., 1992.
27. Packard, N. H., J. P. Crutchfield. J. D. Farmer, and R. S. Shaw, Geometry from a time series, Phys. Rev. Lett., 45(9), 712-716, 1980.
28. Palmer, T. N., Extended-range atmospheric prediction and the Lorenz model, Bull. Am. Meteorol Soc., 74(1), 49-65, 1993.
29. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert, Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1606-1626, 1987.
30. Rössler, O. E., An equation for continuous chaos. Phys. Lett. A, 57A, 397-398, 1976.
31. Sangoyomi, T. B., Climatic variability and dynamics of Great Salt Lake hydrology, Ph.D. dissertation, 247 pp., Utah State Univ., Logan. 1993.
32. Sangoyomi, T., U. Lall, and H. D. I. Abarbanel, Nonlinear dynamics of the Great Salt Lake: Dimension estimation. Water Resour. Res., 32(1), 149, 1996.
33. Silverman, B. W., Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis, Chapman and Hall, New York, 1986.
34. Takens, F., Dynamical systems and turbulence, in Lecture Notes in Mathematics, vol. 898, edited by D. A. Rand, and L. S. Young, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1981.
35. Tong, H., Threshold models in non-linear time series analysis, in Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 21, Springer-Verlag, New York. 1983.
36. Tong, H., Nonlinear time series: A dynamical system approach, Oxford Univ. Press, New York, 1990.
37. Trenberth, K. E., Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the northern hemisphere, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 71, 988-993, 1990.
38. Wahba, G., Spline Methods for Observational Data, vol. 59, 169 pp., Soc. for Ind. and Appl. Math., Philadelphia, Pa., 1990.
39. Yakowitz, S., Nearest-neighbor methods for time series analysis, J. Time Series Anal., 8(2), 235-247, 1987.