The Role of Mental Simulation in Judgments of Likelihood

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Volumn 70, Issue 2, 1997, Pages 135-148

  Dougherty, Michael R P ^a   Gettys, Charles F ^a   Thomas, Rickey P ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0013502925     PISSN: 07495978     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1006/obhd.1997.2700     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. J. Cacioppo T., R. Petty E. Social psychological procedures for cognitive response assessment: The thought-listing technique. Cognitive assessment. 1981;Guilford, New York. p. 309-342.
2. Carroll J. S. The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. 14:1978;88-96.
3. Doherty M. E., Chadwick R., Garavan H., Barr D., Mynatt C. R. On people's understanding of the diagnostic implications of probabilistic data. Memory & Cognition. 24:1996;644-654.
4. Doherty M. E., Mynatt C. R., Tweney R. D., Schiavo M. Pseudodiagnosticity. Acta Psychologica. 43, 1979;111-121.
5. M. R.P. Dougherty, C. F. Gettys, E. E. Ogden, MINERVA-DM: A memory model for judgments of likelihood.
6. Fischhoff B. Hindsight ≠ foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human, Perception, and Performance. 1:1975;288-299.
7. Fischhoff B., Slovic P., Lichtenstein. Fault trees: Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human, Perception, and Performance. 4:(1978);330-344.
8. Fisher S., Gettys C., Manning C., Mehle T., Baca S. Consistency checking in hypothesis generation. Journal of Organizational Behavior and Human Performance. 31:1983;233-254.
9. Gettys C. F., Fisher S. Hypothesis plausibility and hypothesis generation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 24:1979;93-110.
10. Gettys C., Mehle T., Fisher S. Plausibility assessments in hypothesis generation. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 37:1986;14-33.
11. Gettys C. F., Pliske R. M., Manning C., Casey J. T. An evaluation of human act generation performance. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 39:1987;23-51.
12. Gregory W. L., Cialdini R. B., Carpenter K. M. Self-relevant scenarios as mediators of likelihood estimates and compliance: Does imagining make it so? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 43:1982;89-99.
13. Hawkins S. A., Hastie R. Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin. 107:1990;311-327.
14. Hirt E. R., Markman K. D. Multiple explanation: A consider-an-alternative strategy for debiasing judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 69:1995;1069-1086.
15. Hoch S. J. Availability and interference in predictive judgments. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 10:1984;649-662.
16. Hoch S. J. Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 11:1985;719-731.
17. Johnson-Laird P. N., Legrenzi P., Legrenzi M. S. Reasoning and a sense of reality. British Journal of Psychology. 63:1972;395-400.
18. Jou J., Shanteau J., Harris R. J. An information processing view of framing effects: The role of causal schemas in decision making. Memory & Cognition. 24:1996;1-15.
19. Kahneman D., Tversky A. The simulation heuristic. Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. 1982;201-208 Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
20. Kirk R. E. Experimental design: Procedures for the behavioral sciences. 1982;Brooks-Cole, Pacific Grove.
21. Klayman J., Ha Y.-W. Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review. 94:1987;211-228.
22. Koehler D. J. Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment. Psychological Bulletin. 110:1991;499-519.
23. Koehler D. J. Hypothesis generation and confidence in judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition. 20:1994;461-469.
24. Koriat A., Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B. Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory. 6:1980;107-118.
25. Levi A. S., Pryor J. B. Use of the availability heuristic in probability estimates of future events: The effects of imagining outcomes versus imagining reasons. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 40:1987;219-234.
26. Mehle T., Gettys C., Manning C., Baca S., Fisher S. The availability explanation of excessive plausibility estimates. Acta Psychologica. 49:1981;127-140.
27. Mynatt C. R., Doherty M. E., Dragan W. Information relevance, working memory, and the consideration of alternatives. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. 46A:1993;759-778.
28. Oxford English Dictionary. 1982;Oxford Univ. Press, New York.
29. Shugan S. M. The cost of thinking. Journal of Consumer Research. 7:1980;99-111.
30. Tweney R. D., Doherty M E., Worner W. J., Pliske D. B., Mynatt C. R., Gross K. A., Arkklin D. L. Strategies of rule discovery in an inference task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. 32:1980;109-123.
31. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology. 5:1973;207-232.
32. Tversky J. A., Koehler D. Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. Psychological Review. 101:1994;547-567.
33. Wason P. C. On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology. 12:1960;129-140.
34. Wason P. C., Johnson-Laird P. N. Psychology of reasoning: Structure and content. 1972;Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge.