Eliciting subjective probability distributions on continuous variables

Organizational Behavior and Human Performance

Volumn 21, Issue 3, 1978, Pages 379-391

  Seaver, David A ^a   von Winterfeldt, Detlof ^a   Edwards, Ward ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0011632847     PISSN: 00305073     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/0030-5073(78)90061-2     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research
2. A scoring system for probability forecasts of ranked categories
3. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art
4. Scoring rules for continuous probability distributions
5. On the “ranked probability score”
6. Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation
7. Conservatism in a simple probability inference task
8. The assessment of subjective probability distributions: A training experiment
9. Probability encoding in decision analysis
10. Measurement of subjective probability
11. Two techniques for assessment of subjective probability distributions—an experimental study
12. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
13. The assessment of prior distributions in Bayesian analysis
14. The quantification of judgment Some methodological suggestions
15. Direct estimation procedures for eliciting judgments about uncertain events
16. A progress report on the training of probability assessors
17. Formulae for generating highest density credibility regions
18. Probabilistic forecasts and reproducing scoring systems
19. Flat maxima in linear optimization models
20. An experiment in probabilistic forecasting