The importance of candidate characteristics and local political conditions in the 1994 US mid-term elections

Political Studies

Volumn 46, Issue 4, 1998, Pages 766-776

  Owens, John E ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0008709955     PISSN: 00323217     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/1467-9248.00166     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Walter Dean Burnham, 'Realignment Lives: The 1994 Earthquake and Its Implications' in Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman (eds), The Clinton Presidency: First Appraisals (Chatham NJ, Chatham House, 1995), p. 369.
2. Angus Campbell, 'Surge and decline: a study of electoral change', Public Opinion Quarterly, 24 (1960), 397-418; Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential popularity and negative voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66; and James E. Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington KY, University of Kentucky Press, 1993); and Edward R Tufte, Political Control of the Economy (Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press, 1978).
3. Angus Campbell, 'Surge and decline: a study of electoral change', Public Opinion Quarterly, 24 (1960), 397-418; Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential popularity and negative voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66; and James E. Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington KY, University of Kentucky Press, 1993); and Edward R Tufte, Political Control of the Economy (Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press, 1978).
4. Angus Campbell, 'Surge and decline: a study of electoral change', Public Opinion Quarterly, 24 (1960), 397-418; Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential popularity and negative voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66; and James E. Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington KY, University of Kentucky Press, 1993); and Edward R Tufte, Political Control of the Economy (Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press, 1978).
5. Angus Campbell, 'Surge and decline: a study of electoral change', Public Opinion Quarterly, 24 (1960), 397-418; Samuel Kernell, 'Presidential popularity and negative voting', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 44-66; and James E. Campbell, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections (Lexington KY, University of Kentucky Press, 1993); and Edward R Tufte, Political Control of the Economy (Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press, 1978).
6. Francisco Arcelus and Allan Meltzer, 'The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 1232-39; Howard S. Bloom and H. Douglas Price, 'Voter response to short-term economic conditions: the asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 1240-54; Tufte, Political Control of the Economy; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1983); Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 'Forecasting US House elections', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9 (1984), 475-86; and Robert S. Erikson, 'The puzzle of midterm loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29.
7. Francisco Arcelus and Allan Meltzer, 'The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 1232-39; Howard S. Bloom and H. Douglas Price, 'Voter response to short-term economic conditions: the asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 1240-54; Tufte, Political Control of the Economy; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1983); Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 'Forecasting US House elections', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9 (1984), 475-86; and Robert S. Erikson, 'The puzzle of midterm loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29.
8. Francisco Arcelus and Allan Meltzer, 'The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 1232-39; Howard S. Bloom and H. Douglas Price, 'Voter response to short-term economic conditions: the asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 1240-54; Tufte, Political Control of the Economy; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1983); Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 'Forecasting US House elections', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9 (1984), 475-86; and Robert S. Erikson, 'The puzzle of midterm loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29.
9. Francisco Arcelus and Allan Meltzer, 'The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 1232-39; Howard S. Bloom and H. Douglas Price, 'Voter response to short-term economic conditions: the asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 1240-54; Tufte, Political Control of the Economy; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1983); Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 'Forecasting US House elections', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9 (1984), 475-86; and Robert S. Erikson, 'The puzzle of midterm loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29.
10. Francisco Arcelus and Allan Meltzer, 'The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 1232-39; Howard S. Bloom and H. Douglas Price, 'Voter response to short-term economic conditions: the asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 1240-54; Tufte, Political Control of the Economy; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1983); Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 'Forecasting US House elections', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9 (1984), 475-86; and Robert S. Erikson, 'The puzzle of midterm loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29.
11. Francisco Arcelus and Allan Meltzer, 'The effect of aggregate economic variables on congressional elections', American Political Science Review, 69 (1975), 1232-39; Howard S. Bloom and H. Douglas Price, 'Voter response to short-term economic conditions: the asymmetric effect of prosperity and recession', American Political Science Review, 71 (1977), 1240-54; Tufte, Political Control of the Economy; Gary C. Jacobson and Samuel Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections (New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1983); Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom W. Rice, 'Forecasting US House elections', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 9 (1984), 475-86; and Robert S. Erikson, 'The puzzle of midterm loss', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 1011-29.
12. Richard F. Fenno, Home Style. House Members in their Districts (Boston, Little Brown, 1978); Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections; Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder CO, Westview 1990); Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York, Harper-Collins, 1992); and Thomas A. Kazee (ed.), Who Runs For Congress? Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1994); Jonathan Bernstein, Adrienne Jamieson, and Christine Trost (eds), Campaigning for Congress, Politicians At Home and in Washington (Berkeley CA, Institute of Governmental Studies, 1995).
13. Richard F. Fenno, Home Style. House Members in their Districts (Boston, Little Brown, 1978); Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections; Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder CO, Westview 1990); Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York, Harper-Collins, 1992); and Thomas A. Kazee (ed.), Who Runs For Congress? Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1994); Jonathan Bernstein, Adrienne Jamieson, and Christine Trost (eds), Campaigning for Congress, Politicians At Home and in Washington (Berkeley CA, Institute of Governmental Studies, 1995).
14. Richard F. Fenno, Home Style. House Members in their Districts (Boston, Little Brown, 1978); Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections; Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder CO, Westview 1990); Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York, Harper-Collins, 1992); and Thomas A. Kazee (ed.), Who Runs For Congress? Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1994); Jonathan Bernstein, Adrienne Jamieson, and Christine Trost (eds), Campaigning for Congress, Politicians At Home and in Washington (Berkeley CA, Institute of Governmental Studies, 1995).
15. Richard F. Fenno, Home Style. House Members in their Districts (Boston, Little Brown, 1978); Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections; Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder CO, Westview 1990); Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York, Harper-Collins, 1992); and Thomas A. Kazee (ed.), Who Runs For Congress? Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1994); Jonathan Bernstein, Adrienne Jamieson, and Christine Trost (eds), Campaigning for Congress, Politicians At Home and in Washington (Berkeley CA, Institute of Governmental Studies, 1995).
16. Richard F. Fenno, Home Style. House Members in their Districts (Boston, Little Brown, 1978); Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections; Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder CO, Westview 1990); Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York, Harper-Collins, 1992); and Thomas A. Kazee (ed.), Who Runs For Congress? Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1994); Jonathan Bernstein, Adrienne Jamieson, and Christine Trost (eds), Campaigning for Congress, Politicians At Home and in Washington (Berkeley CA, Institute of Governmental Studies, 1995).
17. Richard F. Fenno, Home Style. House Members in their Districts (Boston, Little Brown, 1978); Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections; Gary C. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections, 1946-1988 (Boulder CO, Westview 1990); Gary C. Jacobson, The Politics of Congressional Elections, 3rd ed. (New York, Harper-Collins, 1992); and Thomas A. Kazee (ed.), Who Runs For Congress? Ambition, Context, and Candidate Emergence (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1994); Jonathan Bernstein, Adrienne Jamieson, and Christine Trost (eds), Campaigning for Congress, Politicians At Home and in Washington (Berkeley CA, Institute of Governmental Studies, 1995).
18. Everett Carll Ladd, 'The 1994 congressional elections: the postindustrial realignment continues', Political Science Quarterly, 110 (1995), 10-11; Everett Carll Ladd, '1994 Vote: Against the Backdrop of Continuing Realignment' in Everett Carll Ladd (ed.), America At the Polls 1994. Occasional Papers and Monographs Series No. 2 (Stone CT, Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, 1995), pp. 20, 39 and 41; and Dean Burnham, 'Realignment Lives', p. 363.
19. Everett Carll Ladd, 'The 1994 congressional elections: the postindustrial realignment continues', Political Science Quarterly, 110 (1995), 10-11; Everett Carll Ladd, '1994 Vote: Against the Backdrop of Continuing Realignment' in Everett Carll Ladd (ed.), America At the Polls 1994. Occasional Papers and Monographs Series No. 2 (Stone CT, Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, 1995), pp. 20, 39 and 41; and Dean Burnham, 'Realignment Lives', p. 363.
20. Everett Carll Ladd, 'The 1994 congressional elections: the postindustrial realignment continues', Political Science Quarterly, 110 (1995), 10-11; Everett Carll Ladd, '1994 Vote: Against the Backdrop of Continuing Realignment' in Everett Carll Ladd (ed.), America At the Polls 1994. Occasional Papers and Monographs Series No. 2 (Stone CT, Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, 1995), pp. 20, 39 and 41; and Dean Burnham, 'Realignment Lives', p. 363.
21. Alan Abramowitz and Suzie Ishkawa, 'Explaining the Republican Takeover of the House of Representatives: Evidence From the 1992-94 NES Panel Survey'. A paper presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, August 31-September 3, 1995.
22. Ladd, 'The 1994 Congressional Elections', pp. 10-11; Ladd, '1994 Vote', pp. 20, 39 and 41; and David W. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Douglas Rivers, 'How the Republicans captured the House', Essays in Public Policy, No. 57 (Standford CA, The Hoover Institution, 1995).
23. Ladd, 'The 1994 Congressional Elections', pp. 10-11; Ladd, '1994 Vote', pp. 20, 39 and 41; and David W. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Douglas Rivers, 'How the Republicans captured the House', Essays in Public Policy, No. 57 (Standford CA, The Hoover Institution, 1995).
24. Ladd, 'The 1994 Congressional Elections', pp. 10-11; Ladd, '1994 Vote', pp. 20, 39 and 41; and David W. Brady, John F. Cogan, and Douglas Rivers, 'How the Republicans captured the House', Essays in Public Policy, No. 57 (Standford CA, The Hoover Institution, 1995).
25. Brady, Cogan and Rivers, 'How the Republicans captured the House'. But see the important qualifications offered in Melissa P. Collie, Tracy Renner Karp, and Tse-min Lin, 'Presidential Effects and Negative Voting in the 1994 Congressional Elections'. A paper presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, August 31-September 3, 1995.
26. Brady, Cogan and Rivers, 'How the Republicans captured the House'. But see the important qualifications offered in Melissa P. Collie, Tracy Renner Karp, and Tse-min Lin, 'Presidential Effects and Negative Voting in the 1994 Congressional Elections'. A paper presented to the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, August 31-September 3, 1995.
27. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections; see for example, Andrew Gelman and Gary King, 'Estimating the incumbency advantage without bias', American Journal of Political Science, 34 (1990), 1142-64; Michael Krashinsky and William J. Milne, 'The effects of incumbency in US congressional elections, 1950-1988', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 18 (1993), 321-344.
28. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections; see for example, Andrew Gelman and Gary King, 'Estimating the incumbency advantage without bias', American Journal of Political Science, 34 (1990), 1142-64; Michael Krashinsky and William J. Milne, 'The effects of incumbency in US congressional elections, 1950-1988', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 18 (1993), 321-344.
29. Jacobson, The Electoral Origins of Divided Government in US House Elections; see for example, Andrew Gelman and Gary King, 'Estimating the incumbency advantage without bias', American Journal of Political Science, 34 (1990), 1142-64; Michael Krashinsky and William J. Milne, 'The effects of incumbency in US congressional elections, 1950-1988', Legislative Studies Quarterly, 18 (1993), 321-344.
30. Gary C. Jacobson, 'The Persistence of Democratic House Majorities' in Gary W. Cox and Samuel Kernell (eds), The Politics of Divided Government (Boulder Co., Westview, 1991), pp. 62-3.
31. Jacobson and Kernell, Strategy and Choice in Congressional Elections, p. 424.
32. See also Alan Ehrenhart, The United States of Ambition: Politicians, Power, and the Pursuit of Office (New York, Times Random House, 1991), p. 17;
33. Linda L. Fowler and Robert D. McClure, Political Ambition. Who Decides to Run for Congress (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1989).
34. Jacobson, 'The Persistence of Democratic House Majorities', pp. 45-74; Gary C. Jacobson, 'Strategic politicians and the dynamics of US house elections, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 83 (1989), 773-93; and Jonathan S. Krasno and Donald Philip Green, 'Preempting quality challengers in House elections', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 925-6.
35. Jacobson, 'The Persistence of Democratic House Majorities', pp. 45-74; Gary C. Jacobson, 'Strategic politicians and the dynamics of US house elections, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 83 (1989), 773-93; and Jonathan S. Krasno and Donald Philip Green, 'Preempting quality challengers in House elections', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 925-6.
36. Jacobson, 'The Persistence of Democratic House Majorities', pp. 45-74; Gary C. Jacobson, 'Strategic politicians and the dynamics of US house elections, 1946-1986', American Political Science Review, 83 (1989), 773-93; and Jonathan S. Krasno and Donald Philip Green, 'Preempting quality challengers in House elections', Journal of Politics, 50 (1988), 925-6.
37. Krasno and Green's index allows for a maximum score of 8 and takes into account candidates' previous elective political experience, professional backgrounds, and celebrity status. Those who have held political office (usually the quality candidates) are scored a minimum of 4, and their score increases by 1 for being currently in office, for previously running for the House, and for celebrity status (athletics, military heroism, or a famous family). Candidates without previous elective political experience score a minimum of 0 and their score is increased by 1 for having run for public office previously, for a previous congressional run, for holding non-elective office, for political activity, for professional status and celebrity status. See Krasno and Green, 'Preempting quality challengers in House elections', pp. 922-4. Biographical data for candidates was obtained from various issues of Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report and The Cook Political Report; and Philip D. Duncan and Christine C. Lawrence (eds), Politics in America, 1996. The 104th Congress (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly, 1995).
38. Krasno and Green's index allows for a maximum score of 8 and takes into account candidates' previous elective political experience, professional backgrounds, and celebrity status. Those who have held political office (usually the quality candidates) are scored a minimum of 4, and their score increases by 1 for being currently in office, for previously running for the House, and for celebrity status (athletics, military heroism, or a famous family). Candidates without previous elective political experience score a minimum of 0 and their score is increased by 1 for having run for public office previously, for a previous congressional run, for holding non-elective office, for political activity, for professional status and celebrity status. See Krasno and Green, 'Preempting quality challengers in House elections', pp. 922-4. Biographical data for candidates was obtained from various issues of Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report and The Cook Political Report; and Philip D. Duncan and Christine C. Lawrence (eds), Politics in America, 1996. The 104th Congress (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly, 1995).
39. Krasno and Green, 'Preempting quality challengers in House elections', p. 925.
40. One study has specifically rejected this proposition albeit using a measure of candidate quality based solely on candidate's elective experience. See Paul R. Abramson, John H. Aldrich, and David W. Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, rev. ed. (Washington DC, Congressional Quarterly Press, 1995), p. 344.
41. Michael Malbin, '1994 Vote: The Money Story' in Ladd, America At the Polls 1994, p. 127;
42. Gary C. Jacobson, Money in Congressional Elections (New Haven CT, Yale University Press, 1980);
43. and Gary C. Jacobson, 'The effect of campaign spending in House elections: new evidence for old arguments', American Journal of Political Science, 34 (1990), 334-62.
44. In these seats, Democrats had a slight financial advantage but if the almost $2.5 million spent by the Democratic candidate in Wyoming is eliminated from the calculations, Republicans had a slight advantage.
45. The elimination of the extraordinary $4.6 million spent by the losing Republican candidate in Texas' 25th district reduces the number of Financially competitive races to eight.
46. William Schneider, 'Clinton: the reason why', National Journal, 12 November 1994.
47. Joseph A. Aistrup, The Southern Strategy Revisited. Republican Top-Down Advancement in the South (Lexington KY, University Press of Kentucky, 1996), p. 93.
48. Kevin A. Hill, 'Does the creation of majority black districts aid Republicans? An analysis of the 1992 congressional elections in eight southern states', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 384-401; and Aistrup, The Southern Strategy Revisited, p. 108. This argument has been challenged in Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, p. 332 and in L. Marvin Overby and Robert D. Brown, 'Race, Redistricting, and Reelection: The Fate of White Incumbent Democrats in the 1994 Congressional Elections'. Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago IL, August 31-September 3, 1995
49. Kevin A. Hill, 'Does the creation of majority black districts aid Republicans? An analysis of the 1992 congressional elections in eight southern states', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 384-401; and Aistrup, The Southern Strategy Revisited, p. 108. This argument has been challenged in Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, p. 332 and in L. Marvin Overby and Robert D. Brown, 'Race, Redistricting, and Reelection: The Fate of White Incumbent Democrats in the 1994 Congressional Elections'. Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago IL, August 31-September 3, 1995
50. Kevin A. Hill, 'Does the creation of majority black districts aid Republicans? An analysis of the 1992 congressional elections in eight southern states', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 384-401; and Aistrup, The Southern Strategy Revisited, p. 108. This argument has been challenged in Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, p. 332 and in L. Marvin Overby and Robert D. Brown, 'Race, Redistricting, and Reelection: The Fate of White Incumbent Democrats in the 1994 Congressional Elections'. Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago IL, August 31-September 3, 1995
51. Kevin A. Hill, 'Does the creation of majority black districts aid Republicans? An analysis of the 1992 congressional elections in eight southern states', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 384-401; and Aistrup, The Southern Strategy Revisited, p. 108. This argument has been challenged in Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, p. 332 and in L. Marvin Overby and Robert D. Brown, 'Race, Redistricting, and Reelection: The Fate of White Incumbent Democrats in the 1994 Congressional Elections'. Paper presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago IL, August 31-September 3, 1995
52. . 22 Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, pp. 299-303. See Mitofsky International Exit Poll, New York Times, 13 November 1994 for levels of support for the parties in the 1994 elections.
53. . 22 Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, pp. 299-303. See Mitofsky International Exit Poll, New York Times, 13 November 1994 for levels of support for the parties in the 1994 elections.
54. US Bureau of the Census, 'Voting and registration in the election of November 1994', Current Population Survey November 1994. Voting and Registration Supplement (Washington DC, US Bureau of the Census, 1995), Table 1.
55. Exit poll and American National Election Study results indicate that Perot voters voted overwhelmingly for Republican candidates in 1994. See Mitofsky International Exit Poll and American National Election Study 1994, Enhanced File [1992-1993-1994], ICPSR Study No. 6507.
56. James I. Lengle, 'Divisive presidential primaries and party electoral prospects, 1932-1976', American Politics Quarterly, 8 (1980), 261-277; Patrick J. Kenney and Tom W. Rice, 'The effect of primary divisiveness in gubernatorial and senatorial elections', Journal of Politics, 31 (1987), 904-15; James I. Lengle, Diana Owen, and Molly W. Sonner, 'Divisive nominating mechanisms and Democratic Party electoral prospects', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 370-84.
57. James I. Lengle, 'Divisive presidential primaries and party electoral prospects, 1932-1976', American Politics Quarterly, 8 (1980), 261-277; Patrick J. Kenney and Tom W. Rice, 'The effect of primary divisiveness in gubernatorial and senatorial elections', Journal of Politics, 31 (1987), 904-15; James I. Lengle, Diana Owen, and Molly W. Sonner, 'Divisive nominating mechanisms and Democratic Party electoral prospects', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 370-84.
58. James I. Lengle, 'Divisive presidential primaries and party electoral prospects, 1932-1976', American Politics Quarterly, 8 (1980), 261-277; Patrick J. Kenney and Tom W. Rice, 'The effect of primary divisiveness in gubernatorial and senatorial elections', Journal of Politics, 31 (1987), 904-15; James I. Lengle, Diana Owen, and Molly W. Sonner, 'Divisive nominating mechanisms and Democratic Party electoral prospects', Journal of Politics, 57 (1995), 370-84.
59. Abramson, Aldrich, and Rohde, Change and Continuity in the 1992 Elections, p. 124.
60. Raymond E. Wolfinger, Steven J. Rosenstone, and Richard A. McIntosh, 'Presidential and congressional voters compared', American Politics Quarterly, 9 (1981), 251-2.
61. Bureau of the Census, Voting and Registration in the Election of November 1994, Table 1.
62. Martin Wattenberg, The Decline of American Political Parties, 1952-1994 (Cambridge MA, Harvard University Press, 1996), p. 207.