Russia, energy and the west

Survival

Volumn 43, Issue 2, 2001, Pages 133-152

  Jaffe, Amy Myers ^a   Manning, Robert A ^b  

^a RICE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0008572858     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/survival/43.2.133     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. 'The Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation', Moscow, 28 June 2000. See www.mid.ru/mid/eng/econcept.
2. See Lee S. Wolosky, 'Putin's Plutocrat Problem', Foreign Affairs, March/April 2000, pp. 18-31, for a good overview of the role of oil and gas in shaping Russia's new oligarchy and how its corruption impedes both the development of the energy industry and, more broadly, the market economy.
3. See for example, Ariel Cohen, 'Putin's Foreign Policy and US-Russian Relations', Heritage Foundation backgrounder, 18 January 2001, www.Heritage.org ; Stephen Sestanovich, 'Where Does Russia Belong', The National Interest, Winter 2000/01; pp.6, 8;
4. See for example, Ariel Cohen, 'Putin's Foreign Policy and US-Russian Relations', Heritage Foundation backgrounder, 18 January 2001, www.Heritage.org ; Stephen Sestanovich, 'Where Does Russia Belong', The National Interest, Winter 2000/01; pp.6, 8;
5. 'Russia's Road to Corruption', House Republican Policy Committee (Rep. Chris Cox, chair), report to the US Congress.
6. Zbigniew Brzezinski, 'Living with Russia', The National Interest, Fall 2000, pp. 16.
7. Peter Rutland, Lost Opportunities Energy and Politics in Russia, The National Bureau of Asian Research, Vol. 8, No. 5 1997; presentation by Matt Sagers to a conference on world oil supplies at Florida International University 16, November 2000. Sagers is a consultant with the Washington DC-based firm Planecon.
8. Sagers.
9. Interfax, as reported by Radio Free Europe, 15 August 2000.
10. Paul Starobin and Catherine Belton, The Oil Gods must be Smiling', Business Week, October 30, 2000 p. 170-171.
11. See Vijai Maheshwari, 'Baltic Oil Access Wakens New Russian Pipeline Dream', Financial Times, 30 March 2000, p. 38.
12. http://bisnis.doc.gov/bisnis/isa/ 9901port.htm
13. Author's telephone interviews with Conoco officials, Houston, 28 November 2000.
14. Stefan Wagstyl, 'Intense Suspicion Gives Way to Support', Financial Times, 9 April 2001, p. 3, Russia supplement.
15. Michael Margelov in 'Energy in the Caspian Region: Past and Future', Amy Myers Jaffe, Yelena Kalyuzhnova, Dov Lynch and Robin Sickles (eds), Macmillan, forthcoming.
16. Data provided by PIRA Energy Group.
17. See Peter Norman, 'EU and Russia to Strengthen Energy and Security Ties', Financial Times, 30 October 2000, p. 10.
18. William Drozdiak, 'EU Near Energy Deal with Russia', The Washington Post, 20 October 2000, p. E03.
19. 'Gazprom Gets Clients Behind its Bypass Gambit', World Gas Intelligence, 14 September 2000, vol. XI no. 17, p. 1.
20. Ariel Cohen, 'Putin's Foreign Policy and US-Russian Relations'.
21. Drozdiak, 'EU Near Energy Deal with Russia'.
22. Haig Simonian, 'Russia Seeks to Strengthen ties with EU,' Financial Times, 27 November 2000, p 7.
23. Cited in Anatol Lieven and Celeste Wallander, 'Make Russia a Better Neighbor,' New York Times, 14 March 2001, p. 23A.
24. Peter Rutland, 'Oil, Politics and Foreign Policy', The Political Economy of Russian Oil, David Lane (ed.), (Lanham, Maryland: Rowan and Littlefield Publishers Inc., 1999), p. 163-188.
25. Yuri E. Fedorov, 'Russia's Caspian Policy under Vladimir Putin', Private View Magazine, November 2000, p. 3.
26. Author's interviews with Russian energy analysts and officials in Moscow, February 2001.
27. See Federov, 'Russia's Caspian Policy under Vladimir Putin' for competing Russian views of the Caspian region, p. 4.
28. Ibid.
29. A Ministry of Foreign Affairs directive around the same time states The Security Council of the Russian Federation proceeds form the premise that the scale of Russia's interests on the Caspian direction determines the necessity of its comprehensive presence in the region and of the pursuit of a more vigorous political line there. We intend to firmly uphold and promote our lawful interests in the Caspian that no one has the right to impinge upon.' Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russia Fact Sheet N 396. 11 May 2000.
30. See James M. Dorsey, 'Turkmenistan Deal May Kill Pipeline Backed by the U.S.', Wall Street Journal, 14 November 2000, p. 22A.
31. Isabel Gorst and Nina Poussenkova, 'Petroleum Ambassadors of Russia: State versus Corporate Policy in the Caspian Region', Baker Institute Working Paper, April 1991, available at www.bakerinstitute.org.
32. Douglas W. Blum, 'Russia's New Caspian Policy', Program on New Approaches to Russian Security Policy Memo, Series No. 162 November 2000.
33. J. Fitchett, 'A resurgent Russia influence grips former Soviet Central Asia', International Herald Tribune, 9 July 2000.
34. 'In the Caspian, It's all Pipelines and No Oil', Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, 11 September 2000, p. 3.
35. Dorsey, James, 'Turkmenistan Deal May Kill Pipeline Backed by US', The Wall Street Journal, 19 November 2000 p. A22.
36. Blum, 'Russia's New Caspian Policy'.
37. B. Aliriza, 'US Caspian pipeline policy: substance or spin?', Caspian Energy Update, entre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) August 2000, available online at www.csis.org\turkey/ CEU000117.html.
38. B. Aliriza, ibid, and author's interviews with oil company executives active in the region, 26-28 November 2000.
39. It is also important to note that the development of its Far Eastern (and Western Siberian) energy resources underscores another dimension of Russia's energy relationship with Europe. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has contracted more than $500m in loans to both Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2 oil and gas projects (and several Western Siberian projects) and over the past five years. In addition, the EBRD is considering coordinating a $10bn oil and gas project offshore Sakhalin. See www.ebrd.com; Gillian Tett, 'EBRD Eyes Sakhalin Oil Plan', Financial Times, 11 January, 2001.
40. See Al Troner, Japan and the Far East: The Economics and Competitive Impact of Least Cost Gas Imports, Baker Institute Working Paper, May 2000, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University, Houston, Texas. See www.bakerinstitute.org.
41. Vladimir Putin, 'Stability is Russia's Priority as New Oriental Vistas Open', The Straits Times, 9 November 2000, www.straitstimes.asia1.com.
42. See Astrid Wendlandt, 'High Politics Help Grease Wheels of Trade', Financial Times, 9 April 2001.
43. Some analysts argue that Russia's policies towards the Persian Gulf have lacked strategic focus or clearly articulated interests. Eugene Rumer, 'Dangerous Drift: Russia's Middle East Policy,' monograph published by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Washington DC, 2000.
44. Ariel Cohen and James Phillips, 'Countering Russian-Iranian Military Cooperation', backgrounder published by The Heritage Foundation, 5 April 2001, no. 1425, p. 2.
45. Author's conversations in Moscow, December 2000 and February 2001.
46. Cohen and Phillips, 'Countering Russian-Iranian Military Cooperation'.
47. Amy Myers Jaffe and Robert Manning, 'A World of Cheap Oil', Foreign Affairs, January/February 2000, pp. 16-29.
48. US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000 - Description and Results. Diskette data series, US Geological Survey, Washington DC, Executive Summary.
49. Sagers, Planecon presentation.
50. Mandelbaum, address to the Conference on 'Russia and the International System', Airlie House, Virginia, 23 February 2001.
51. Indeed, there are leaders in Russia who plainly wish to see arestoration of the country's international status in part through modernisation of its military forces. Russia's generals are pushing for a reorientation of the military toward high technology. Richard Pipes, 'Is Russia Still an Enemy?', Foreign Affairs, Sept/Oct 1997, vol. 76, no. 5, p. 75.