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2
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With both feet planted firmly in mid-air: reflections on thinking about the future
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quote from page 95.
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, vol.17
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Michael1
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5
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Prediction
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David L. Sills, Macmillan and The Free Press, New York, Since the time when Schuessler described forecasts as ‘concrete and calendar-bound’, some futurists have increasingly used the term to refer to probabilistic statements about the future. The latter definition, however, even if it were to become widely accepted, does not solve the epistemological problem discussed here, as we point out later
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(1968)
International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences
, pp. 418
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Schuessler1
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6
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84916172272
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Futurist Michael Marien in a personal communication (16 February 1988), for example, insists that ‘prediction’ should be restricted to the concrete and calendar-bound, and that ‘forecast’ is a more general term referring simply to ‘an opinion about the future’.
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7
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0006572748
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Sociology and social forecasting
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Ralph H. Turner, James F. Short Jr., Annual Reviews, Palo Alto, CA
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Henshel1
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8
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William Alonso, Paul Starr, Russell Sage Foundation, New York
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(1987)
The Politics of Number
, pp. 237
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Keyfitz1
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10
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0003878228
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Like many other futurists, we adopt what has been called a decisional theory of individual and social choice. Using it, we assume that people pursue projects, that is, that they have goals and that they try to achieve them with the means they believe they have available. To do so, they base their actions, more or less exactly and explicitly, on expectations of the value they attach to the outcomes of their actions and the probability that those actions will obtain particular outcomes. The label ‘rational’ often attached to one version of this theory is misleading, because it may be rational in a particular case, not from an observer's judgment, but only within the frame of reference of an actor him - or herself and only for some particular time and situation. For a recent account of rational-choice theory, see, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
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(1986)
Individual Interests and Collective Action
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Coleman1
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11
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0004282030
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The theory we have in mind is reflexive, that is, involves feedback, learning and altered responses, as in a cybernetic model, and focuses on both voluntary and conditioned behaviour in an action framework, See, San Francisco, CA
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(1985)
Action Science
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Argyris1
Putnam2
McLain Smith3
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17
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0039808746
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Sociology and physicalism
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A.J. Ayer, The Free Press, Glencoe I, [1931–1932]
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(1959)
Logical Positivism
, pp. 282-317
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Neurath1
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22
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Doing futures research—anthropologically
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(1987)
Futures
, vol.19
, Issue.3
, pp. 311-312
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Riner1
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24
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84916152205
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On the epistemology of the inexact sciences
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Olaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher claim that there are other differences between explanation and prediction, too, but they all appear to follow from the defining difference in time orientation. See, Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA, [1959]
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(1983)
Looking Forward
, pp. 25-50
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Helmer1
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27
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0010094714
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The futures field: searching for definitions and boundaries
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Wendell Bell, The Foundations of the Futures Field: An Introduction (New York, McGraw-Hill, forthcoming).
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(1981)
The Futurist
, vol.15
, pp. 25-29
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Amara1
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28
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34247914066
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Preparing for the professional futures field: observations from the UHCLC futures program
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(1983)
Futures
, vol.16
, Issue.1
, pp. 47-64
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Markley1
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30
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84916178540
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The Gods of the copybook headings: a caution to forecasters
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Second Edition, Michael Marien, Lane Jennings, Greenwood, New York
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(1987)
What I Have Learned
, pp. 143-152
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Martino1
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Pitfalls of forecasting: fundamental problems for the methodology of forecasting from the philosophy of science
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quote from page 188.
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Futures
, vol.19
, Issue.2
, pp. 184-196
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van Vught1
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37
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The futures field: searching for definitions and boundaries
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(1981)
The Futurist
, vol.15
, pp. 25
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Amara1
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41
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John McHale, Magda Cordell McHale, Futures Studies: An International Survey (New York, United Nations Institute for Training and Research, no date),
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46
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Looking forward: 1999
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Second Edition, Robert Jungk, Johan Galtung, Universitetsforlaget, Oslo
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, pp. 78-98
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Arthur I1
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As noted by, Jerry Gaston, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, CA
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, pp. 180
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Stehr1
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60
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The futurist as social scientist: from positivism to critical realism
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Wendell Bell, The Foundations of the Futures Field: An Introduction, McGraw-Hill, New York, forthcoming.
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, vol.4
, Issue.3-4
, pp. 303-312
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Bell1
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84916175161
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Kenneth C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider, ‘Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: an overview and analysis of isomorphisms’, pages 7–31; and Richard A. Berk and Thomas F. Cooley, ‘Errors in forecasting social phenomena’, pages 247–265; both in land and Schneider.
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66
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Pitfalls of forecasting: fundamental problems for the methodology of forecasting from the philosophy of science
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quote from page 188.
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, vol.19
, Issue.2
, pp. 187
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The Yale Review
, vol.75
, pp. 564-586
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Bell1
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Kenneth C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider, ‘Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: an overview and analysis of isomorphisms’, pages 7–31; and Richard A. Berk and Thomas F. Cooley, ‘Errors in forecasting social phenomena’, pages 247–265; both in land and Schneider.
-
-
-
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87
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-
84916152205
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On the epistemology of the inexact sciences
-
Olaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher claim that there are other differences between explanation and prediction, too, but they all appear to follow from the defining difference in time orientation. See, [1959], Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA, attempt to justify using expert opinion as a way of constructing assessments of the future, as in the Delphi technique. Their argument includes the notion that experts draw on ‘relevant background knowledge’ that may not be fully articulated to increase their predictive accuracy. For example, years of experience working with a given subject matter may result in knowing things about it that have not yet been formalized in theoretical statements or verified by others. Additionally, they make the procedures for collecting, codifying, and analysing such opinion objective—or, rather, intersubjective—by rendering them intelligible, explicit [[Truncated]]
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(1983)
Looking Forward
, pp. 20
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Helmer1
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89
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Forecasting in the social and natural sciences: an overview and analysis of isomorphisms
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For several points of similarity in the structure and context of forecasting in the social and natural sciences, see, Kenneth C. Land, S.H. Schneider, D. Reidel, Boston, MA
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(1987)
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, pp. 7-31
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Land1
Schneider2
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92
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The theory we have in mind is reflexive, that is, involves feedback, learning and altered responses, as in a cybernetic model, and focuses on both voluntary and conditioned behaviour in an action framework, See, Jossey-Bass, San Francisco, CA
-
(1985)
Action Science
-
-
Argyris1
Putnam2
McLain Smith3
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