Labor force projections to 2008: Steady growth and changing composition

Monthly Labor Review

Volumn 122, Issue 11, 1999, Pages 19-32

  Fullerton Jr , Howard N ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0003029727     PISSN: 00981818     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (9)

1. The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Population Survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan, "Population Projections of the United States, 1999 to 2100: Methodology and Assumptions," U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1999, Working Paper No. 38.
3. For a discussion of migration theories, see Douglass S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J. Edward Taylor, "Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal," Population and Development Review, September 1993, pp. 431-66.
4. See Richard A. Ippolito, "Toward Explaining Early Retirement After 1970," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, July 1990, pp. 556-69.
5. The analysis is complicated by the redesign of the Current Population Survey implemented in 1994. The survey is now counting more older women and men in the labor force due to the improved questionnaire design.
6. See Diane E. Herz, "Work after early retirement: An increasing trend among men," Monthly Labor Review, April 1995, pp. 13-20.
7. Normal Retirement Age, Social Security Administration, May 24, 1999, on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/ nra.html (visited November 3, 1999).
8. For the most recent evaluation of BLS labor force projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "An evaluation of labor force projections to 1995," Monthly Labor Review, September 1997, pp. 5-9.
9. Entrants and leavers are computed by comparing the labor force numbers for birth cohorts at two points in time. If the labor force numbers at the second point are larger, the difference is termed the entrants. If the labor force numbers at the second point are smaller, the difference is the leavers. These concepts understate the numbers likely to enter and leave the labor force over the period covered by the two points in time, but are still a valid comparison. As with measures of geographic mobility, which also do not measure all the changes over a period, we do not call these net entrants and leavers. For a further discussion of the methods, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Measuring Rates Of Labor Force Dynamics," Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1993.