Recession headline news, consumer sentiment, the state of the economy and presidential popularity: A time series analysis 1989-1993

International Journal of Public Opinion Research

Volumn 7, Issue 1, 1995, Pages 2-22

  Blood, Deborah J ^a   Phillips, Peter C B ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0002537540     PISSN: 09542892     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/ijpor/7.1.2     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Andrews, Donald W. K. (1991): ‘Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation’, Econometrica, 59, 817-58
2. Behr, Roy and Iyengar, Shanto (1985): ‘Television News, Real-World Cues, and Changes in the Public Agenda’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 49, 38-57
3. Benton, Marc and Frazier, P. Jean (1976): ‘The Agenda Setting Function of the Mass Media at Three Levels of “Information Holding”’ Communication Research, 3, 261-74
4. Bock, Michael (1978): ‘Headline Specificity in the Processing of Text’, Archiv fur Psychologic, 131(1), 77-93: cited in Silver Platter abstracts, AN 65-11832
5. Brown, Les (1971): Television, New York, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc
6. Crouse, Timothy (1972): The Boys on the Bus, New York, Random House
7. Curtin, Richard T. (1982): ‘Indicators of Consumer Behavior: The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 46, 340-352
8. Dejong, David N., Nankervis, John, Savin, N. Eugene, and Whiteman, Charles (1992): ‘Unit Root Tests in Time Series with Autoregressive Errors’, Journal of Econometrics, 53, 323-43
9. Engle, Robert and Granger, Clive (1987): ‘Cointegration and Error-Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing’, Econometrica, 55, 251-76
10. Eyal, Chaim H. (1979): ‘The Roles of Newspapers and Television in Agenda-Setting’. Paper presented at the annual meetings of the American Association of Public Opinion Research. Buck Hill Farms, Penn
11. Fan, David (1993): ‘Predictions of Consumer Confidence/Sentiment From the Press’. Paper presented at 1993 annual meeting of American Association of Public Opinion Research
12. Fuller, Wayne (1976): Introduction to Statistical Time Series, New York, John Wiley & Sons
13. Glassman, James K. (1993): ‘TV has a lot to do with fear and loathing of NAFTA’, The Washington Post, November 19, p. 61
14. Graber, Doris A. (1993): Mass Media and American Politics (4th edn.), Congressional Quarterly Press
15. Granger, Clive W.J. (1969): ‘Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods’, Econometrica, 37, 424-38
16. Granger, Qive and Newbold, Paul (1974): ‘Spurious Regressions in Econometrics’, Journal of Econometrics, 74, 111-20
17. Hamilton, James (1994): Time Series Analysis, Princeton, Princeton University Press
18. Institute for Applied Economics (1984): Network Television Coverage of Economic News, Mimeograph, New York
19. Iyengar, Shanto and Kinder, Donald (1984): ‘The Evening News and Presidential Evaluations’, Journal Per. Soc. Psychol., 46, 778-87
20. Iyengar, Shanto and Kinder, Donald (1987): News That Matters: Agenda Setting and Priming in a Television Age, Chicago, University of Chicago Press
21. Johansen, Soren (1988): ‘Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors’, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-54
22. Katona, George (1964): The Mass Consumption Society, New York, McGraw-Hill
23. Kinder, Donald and Sears, David (1985): ‘Public Opinion and Political Action’. In Gardner Lindzey and Elliot Aronson (eds.), The Handbook of Social Psychology (3rd edn.), Random House, New York
24. Kurtz, Howard (1990): ‘Is the Economy Suffering from Media Malady?’ Washington Post, October 28, p. Hi
25. Lee, Chin Chin and Phillips, Peter C. B. (1994): ‘An ARMA prewhitened long-run variance estimator’, Yale University, Department of Economics, mimeographed
26. Linden, Fabian (1982): ‘The Consumer as Forecaster’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 46: 353-60
27. Lipset, Seymour Martin (1993): ‘The Significance of the 1992 Election’, P.S. Political Science and Politics, 24, 7
28. Lutkepohl, Helmut (1993): An Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis, New York, Springer-Verlag
29. MacKuen, Michael B. (1981): ‘Social Communication and the Mass Policy Agenda’. In MacKuen and Coombs (eds.) More than News: Media power in public affairs. Beverly Hills, Sage, pp. 19-144
30. MacKuen, Michael B. (1983): ‘Political Drama, Economic Conditions and the Dynamics of Presidential Popularity’, American Journal of Political Science, 127, 65-192
31. MacKuen, Michael B., Erikson, Robert S., and Stimson, James A. (1992): ‘Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy’, American Political Science Review, 86, 3, 597-611
32. McCombs, Maxwell E. (1977): ‘Newspaper Versus Television: Mass Communication Effects Across Time’. In D. L. Shaw and M. E. McCombs (eds.), The Emergence of American Political Issues: The agenda-setting function of the press, St. Paul, MN, West, pp. 89-105
33. McCombs, Maxwell E. and Shaw, Donald (1972): ‘The Agenda Setting Function of Mass Media’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 36 (Summer), 176-87
34. Neuman, W. Russell (1990): ‘The Threshold of Public Attention’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 54, 159-76
35. Ouliaris, Sam and Phillips, Peter C. B. (1994): COINT.2.0: GAUSS Procedures for Cointegrated Regressions. Predicta Software Inc., 133 Concord Drive, Madison, Ct. 06443, USA
36. Page, Benjamin, Shapiro, Robert, and Dempsey, Glenn (1987): ‘What Moves Public Opinion?’ American Political Science Review, 81, 23-43
37. Patterson, Thomas (1993): Out of Order, New York, Knopf
38. Patterson, Thomas and McClure, Robert (1976): The Unseeing Eye: The Myth of Television Power in National Elections, New York, Putnam
39. Phillips, Peter C. B. (1986): ‘Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics’, Journal of Econometrics, 33, 311-40
40. Phillips, Peter C. B. (1987): ‘Time Series Regression with Unit Roots’, Econometrica, 55, 277-301
41. Phillips, Peter C. B. and Hansen, Bruce (1990): ‘Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes’, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125
42. Phillips, Peter C. B. and Ouliaris, Sam (1990): ‘Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration’, Econometrica, 58, 165-193
43. Phillips, Peter C. B. and Perron, P. (1988): ‘Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression’, Biometrika, 75, 335-46
44. Said, D. E. and Dickey, David A. (1984): ‘Testing for Unit Roots in Autoregressive-Moving Average Models of Unknown Order’, Biometrika, 71, 599-608
45. Schwarz, Gideon (1978): ‘Estimating the Dimension of a Model’, Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-4
46. Schwert, William G. (1987): ‘Effects of Model Specification on Tests for Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Data’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 20, 73-103
47. Severin, Werner J. and Tankard, James W. (1992): Communication Theories: Origins, Methods, and Uses in the Mass Media (3rd edn.), New York, Longman
48. Shaw, Donald L. and McCombs, Maxwell E. (1977): The Emergence of American Political Issues: The Agenda Setting Function of the Press, St. Paul, MN, West
49. Shrager, Carl A. (1992): ‘Exonomists Say the Recession is Over. Not!’ Corporate Growth Report (JRO), 10(4), 4
50. Sims, Christopher (1980): ‘Macroeconomics and Reality’, Econometrica, 48, 1-48
51. Smith, David (1992): ‘Thus Confidence Doth Make Cowards of Us All (Confidence as a means of business forecasting: Britain)’, Management Today, April 25
52. Spiers, Joseph (1993): ‘Don’t Bet the Store on Consumers’ New Optimism’, Fortune, February 8, p. 19
53. Stevenson, Robert, Gonzenbach, William, and David, Prabu (1991): ‘Economic Recession and the News’. Presented to the Communication Theory and Methodology Division, Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication, meeting in Boston, MA, August 1991
54. Strumpel, B., Morgan, J., and Zahn, E. (eds.) (1972): Human Behavior in Economic Affairs: Essays in Honor of George Katona, New York, Elsevier
55. Thevanayagam, Pearl (1993): ‘Consumer Confidence Plunged in May, Adding to Concerns about Economy’, Wall Street Journal, May 26, p. A2
56. Weaver, David H. (1977): ‘Political Issues and Voter Need for Orientation’. In D. L. Shaw and M. E. McCombs (eds.), The Emergence of American Political Issues: The Agenda Setting Function of the Press, St. Paul, MN, West, (107-119)
57. Winter, James P. and Eyal, Chaim H. (1981): ‘Agenda Setting for the Civil Rights Issue’, Public Opinion Quarterly, 45, 376-83