메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 85, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 99-123

Business cycle durations

Author keywords

Business cycles; Conditional expected durations; Gibbs sampling; Markov switching; Probit model

Indexed keywords


EID: 0002425919     PISSN: 03044076     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00096-1     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (136)

References (35)
  • 1
    • 55549084723 scopus 로고
    • Bayes inference via Gibbs sampling of autoregressive time series subject to Markov mean and variance shifts
    • Albert, J., Chib, S., 1993a. Bayes inference via Gibbs sampling of autoregressive time series subject to Markov mean and variance shifts. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 11, 1-15.
    • (1993) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.11 , pp. 1-15
    • Albert, J.1    Chib, S.2
  • 3
    • 0039764763 scopus 로고
    • Characterizing business cycles with a Markov switching model: Evidence of multiple equilibria
    • Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York
    • Boldin, M., 1990. Characterizing business cycles with a Markov switching model: Evidence of multiple equilibria, Federal Reserve Bank of New York research paper no. 9037, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York.
    • (1990) Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper No. 9037 , vol.9037
    • Boldin, M.1
  • 4
    • 0002258430 scopus 로고
    • Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: Overview of methodology and application
    • Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York
    • Boldin, M., 1992. Using switching models to study business cycle asymmetries: Overview of methodology and application, Federal Reserve Bank of New York research paper no. 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York.
    • (1992) Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research Paper No. 9211 , vol.9211
    • Boldin, M.1
  • 7
    • 0000042132 scopus 로고
    • Bayes regression with autoregressive errors
    • Chib, S., 1993. Bayes regression with autoregressive errors. Journal of Econometrics 58, 275-294.
    • (1993) Journal of Econometrics , vol.58 , pp. 275-294
    • Chib, S.1
  • 8
    • 0001149688 scopus 로고
    • Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA(p,q) errors
    • Chib, S., Greenberg, E., 1994. Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA(p,q) errors. Journal of Econometrics 64, 183-206.
    • (1994) Journal of Econometrics , vol.64 , pp. 183-206
    • Chib, S.1    Greenberg, E.2
  • 9
    • 0002361162 scopus 로고
    • Regime switching and time-varying transition probabilities
    • Hargreaves, C. (Ed.), Oxford University Press, Oxford
    • Diebold, F., Lee, J., Weinbach, G., 1994. Regime switching and time-varying transition probabilities. In: Hargreaves, C. (Ed.), Non-stationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
    • (1994) Non-stationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration
    • Diebold, F.1    Lee, J.2    Weinbach, G.3
  • 10
    • 0042985962 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic properties of revisions in the index of leading indicators
    • American Statistical Association
    • Diebold, F., Rudebusch, G., 1988. Stochastic properties of revisions in the index of leading indicators. In: proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, pp. 712-717.
    • (1988) Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section , pp. 712-717
    • Diebold, F.1    Rudebusch, G.2
  • 11
    • 84931201999 scopus 로고
    • A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle
    • Diebold, F., Rudebusch, G., 1989b. A nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle. Journal of Political Economy 98, 596-616.
    • (1989) Journal of Political Economy , vol.98 , pp. 596-616
    • Diebold, F.1    Rudebusch, G.2
  • 12
    • 0040231139 scopus 로고
    • Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: An ex ante analysis
    • Lahiri, K., Moore, G. (Eds.), University Press, Cambridge
    • Diebold, F., Rudebusch, G., 1991a. Turning point prediction with the composite leading index: An ex ante analysis. In: Lahiri, K., Moore, G. (Eds.), Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records, University Press, Cambridge.
    • (1991) Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records
    • Diebold, F.1    Rudebusch, G.2
  • 13
  • 14
    • 0002848436 scopus 로고
    • Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence
    • Stock, J., Watson, M. (Eds.), The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Diebold, F., Rudebusch, G., Sichel, D., 1993. Further evidence on business cycle duration dependence. In: Stock, J., Watson, M. (Eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (1993) Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
    • Diebold, F.1    Rudebusch, G.2    Sichel, D.3
  • 16
    • 21344485968 scopus 로고
    • Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of U.S. GNP growth
    • Durland, J., McCurdy, T., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of U.S. GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279-288.
    • (1994) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.12 , pp. 279-288
    • Durland, J.1    McCurdy, T.2
  • 17
    • 84905938917 scopus 로고
    • Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
    • Filardo, A., 1993. Business cycle phases and their transitions. Unpublished doctoral dissertation. Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL.
    • (1993) Business Cycle Phases and Their Transitions
    • Filardo, A.1
  • 18
    • 84952252413 scopus 로고
    • Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics
    • Filardo, A., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299-308.
    • (1994) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.12 , pp. 299-308
    • Filardo, A.1
  • 24
    • 0001342006 scopus 로고
    • A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle
    • Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357-384.
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 357-384
    • Hamilton, J.1
  • 25
    • 45149138487 scopus 로고
    • Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime
    • Hamilton, J., 1990. Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime. Journal of Econometrics 45, 39-70.
    • (1990) Journal of Econometrics , vol.45 , pp. 39-70
    • Hamilton, J.1
  • 26
    • 84986382561 scopus 로고
    • The likelihood ratio test under non-standard conditions: Testing the Markov switching model of GNP
    • Hansen, B., 1992. The likelihood ratio test under non-standard conditions: Testing the Markov switching model of GNP. Journal of Applied Econometrics 7, S61-S82.
    • (1992) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.7
    • Hansen, B.1
  • 27
    • 0030373966 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis
    • Hansen, B., 1996. Inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. Econometrica 64, 413-430.
    • (1996) Econometrica , vol.64 , pp. 413-430
    • Hansen, B.1
  • 28
  • 29
    • 85033897414 scopus 로고
    • Business cycles: The problem and its setting, national bureau of economic research
    • National Bureau of economic research, New York
    • Mitchell, W., 1954. Business cycles: The problem and its setting, National Bureau of Economic Research. Studies in business cycles, no. 1, National Bureau of economic research, New York.
    • (1954) Studies in Business Cycles , vol.1
    • Mitchell, W.1
  • 30
    • 43949158952 scopus 로고
    • An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model
    • McCulloch, R., Rossi, P., 1991. An exact likelihood analysis of the multinomial probit model. Journal of Econometrics 64, 207-240.
    • (1991) Journal of Econometrics , vol.64 , pp. 207-240
    • McCulloch, R.1    Rossi, P.2
  • 31
    • 84981404702 scopus 로고
    • Statistical analysis of economic time series via Markov switching models
    • McCulloch, R., Tsay, R., 1994. Statistical analysis of economic time series via Markov switching models. Journal of Time Series Analysis 15, 523-539.
    • (1994) Journal of Time Series Analysis , vol.15 , pp. 523-539
    • McCulloch, R.1    Tsay, R.2
  • 32
    • 0002669343 scopus 로고
    • A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: Econometric issues and recent performance
    • Stock, J., Watson, M. (Eds.), The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Stock, J., Watson, M., 1993. A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: Econometric issues and recent performance. In: Stock, J., Watson, M. (Eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (1993) Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
    • Stock, J.1    Watson, M.2
  • 33
    • 84950758368 scopus 로고
    • The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentations
    • Tanner, M., Wong, W., 1987. The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentations (with discussion). Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 528-550.
    • (1987) Journal of the American Statistical Association , vol.82 , pp. 528-550
    • Tanner, M.1    Wong, W.2
  • 34
    • 0028595842 scopus 로고
    • Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy
    • Watson, M., 1994. Business cycle durations and postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy. American Economic Review 84, 24-46.
    • (1994) American Economic Review , vol.84 , pp. 24-46
    • Watson, M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.