Confronting Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Terrorism

Survival

Volumn 40, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 43-65

  Falkenrath, Richard A ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0002267299     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/survival/40.3.43     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Several studies have drawn attention to different aspects of the problem. They include Brad Roberts (ed.), Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons: Calibrating Risks and Responses (Alexandria, VA: Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 1997); Jonathan Tucker, 'Chemical/Biological Terrorism: Coping with a New Threat', Politics and the Life Sciences, vol. 15, no. 2, September 1996, pp. 167-83; and Defense Science Board, Report of the 1997 DSB Summer Study on DoD Responses to Transnational Threats, vol. 1 (Washington DC: Office of the Under-secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, December 1997). For possible insight into the argument of a classified US study of the subject, see Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and R. James Woolsey, 'Defend Against the Stealth Enemy', Los Angeles Times, 1 June 1997, p. 4.
2. Several studies have drawn attention to different aspects of the problem. They include Brad Roberts (ed.), Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons: Calibrating Risks and Responses (Alexandria, VA: Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 1997); Jonathan Tucker, 'Chemical/Biological Terrorism: Coping with a New Threat', Politics and the Life Sciences, vol. 15, no. 2, September 1996, pp. 167-83; and Defense Science Board, Report of the 1997 DSB Summer Study on DoD Responses to Transnational Threats, vol. 1 (Washington DC: Office of the Under-secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, December 1997). For possible insight into the argument of a classified US study of the subject, see Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and R. James Woolsey, 'Defend Against the Stealth Enemy', Los Angeles Times, 1 June 1997, p. 4.
3. Several studies have drawn attention to different aspects of the problem. They include Brad Roberts (ed.), Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons: Calibrating Risks and Responses (Alexandria, VA: Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 1997); Jonathan Tucker, 'Chemical/Biological Terrorism: Coping with a New Threat', Politics and the Life Sciences, vol. 15, no. 2, September 1996, pp. 167-83; and Defense Science Board, Report of the 1997 DSB Summer Study on DoD Responses to Transnational Threats, vol. 1 (Washington DC: Office of the Under-secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, December 1997). For possible insight into the argument of a classified US study of the subject, see Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and R. James Woolsey, 'Defend Against the Stealth Enemy', Los Angeles Times, 1 June 1997, p. 4.
4. Several studies have drawn attention to different aspects of the problem. They include Brad Roberts (ed.), Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons: Calibrating Risks and Responses (Alexandria, VA: Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, 1997); Jonathan Tucker, 'Chemical/Biological Terrorism: Coping with a New Threat', Politics and the Life Sciences, vol. 15, no. 2, September 1996, pp. 167-83; and Defense Science Board, Report of the 1997 DSB Summer Study on DoD Responses to Transnational Threats, vol. 1 (Washington DC: Office of the Under-secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Technology, December 1997). For possible insight into the argument of a classified US study of the subject, see Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and R. James Woolsey, 'Defend Against the Stealth Enemy', Los Angeles Times, 1 June 1997, p. 4.
5. Radiological weapons disperse radioactive substances but do not produce a nuclear yield. The simplest radiological weapon would consist of a conventional explosive surrounded by a quantity of any radioactive material. In its immediate physical effects, a radiological weapon is unlikely to produce mass casualties. In most cases, large quantities of highly radioactive material would be needed to produce strong effects over even a moderate area, and obtaining and working with large amounts of such materials would be challenging because of the high radiation levels involved. A radiological attack might, however, trigger panic out of proportion with its destructiveness.
6. For more on the technical issues associated with nuclear weapons acquisition, see US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards (New York: Praeger, 1977), pp. 139-44; Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); and J. Carson Mark, Theodore Taylor, Eugene Eyster, William Maraman and Jacob Wechsler, 'Can Terrorists Build Nuclear Weapons?', in Paul Leventhal and Yonah Alexander (eds), Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: The Report and Papers of the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1987), pp. 59-60.
7. For more on the technical issues associated with nuclear weapons acquisition, see US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards (New York: Praeger, 1977), pp. 139-44; Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); and J. Carson Mark, Theodore Taylor, Eugene Eyster, William Maraman and Jacob Wechsler, 'Can Terrorists Build Nuclear Weapons?', in Paul Leventhal and Yonah Alexander (eds), Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: The Report and Papers of the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1987), pp. 59-60.
8. For more on the technical issues associated with nuclear weapons acquisition, see US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment (OTA), Nuclear Proliferation and Safeguards (New York: Praeger, 1977), pp. 139-44; Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1992); and J. Carson Mark, Theodore Taylor, Eugene Eyster, William Maraman and Jacob Wechsler, 'Can Terrorists Build Nuclear Weapons?', in Paul Leventhal and Yonah Alexander (eds), Preventing Nuclear Terrorism: The Report and Papers of the International Task Force on Prevention of Nuclear Terrorism (Lexington, MA: Lexington Books, 1987), pp. 59-60.
9. The term 'non-state actors' includes traditional, familiar terrorist organisations; paramilitary guerrilla groups fighting for control of territory; cults and other religious organisations; militias or other geographically fixed paramilitary groups; organised-crime syndicates; mercenary groups; breakaway units of a state's military, intelligence or security services; corrupt multinational corporations; and lone individuals.
10. See Graham T. Allison, Owen R. Coté, Jr., Richard A. Falkenrath and Steven E. Miller, Avoiding Nuclear Anarchy: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1996).
11. US Congress, OTA, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks (Washington DC: US Government Printing Office, August 1993), p. 83.
12. The US stockpiled some 30,000 tonnes of chemical agent, which it is now incinerating at eight sites in the US and on Johnston Atoll in the Pacific Ocean. Russia has declared a chemical-weapons stockpile of 40,000t, but some estimates of its true size range as high as 200,000t. Russia has pledged to destroy the chemical-weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but this programme has been delayed by financial difficulties.
13. See 'W. German Terrorists Said to Test Bacteria', International Herald Tribune, 8-9 November 1980, p. 2.
14. Apart from the Nazi gas chambers, the most lethal chemical poisoning ever appears to be the arsenic poisoning of several thousand captive German SS soldiers outside Nuremberg in April 1946 by the Jewish reprisal organisation 'Nakam'. Members of the group infiltrated the bakery that supplied bread to the camp, spreading an arsenic-based poison on the loaves before they were delivered. Despite being forced to flee before they had finished, the group is estimated to have killed hundreds of prisoners and sickened thousands. See Michael Bar-Zohar, The Avengers, translated by Len Ortzen (London: Arthur Barker, 1968), pp. 43-58.
15. The pair had 0.7g of ricin in their possession. In February 1995, they were convicted under the US Biological Weapons Antiterrorism Act of 1989.
16. See Brian Jenkins, 'Understanding the Link between Motives and Methods', in Roberts (ed.), Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons, p. 46. Bruce Hoffman argues that this observation applies mainly to 'secular political' terrorists, not 'religious political' ones. See Hoffman, 'The Contrasting Ethical Foundations of Terrorism in the 1980s', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 1, no. 3, July 1989, p. 363.
17. See Brian Jenkins, 'Understanding the Link between Motives and Methods', in Roberts (ed.), Terrorism with Chemical and Biological Weapons, p. 46. Bruce Hoffman argues that this observation applies mainly to 'secular political' terrorists, not 'religious political' ones. See Hoffman, 'The Contrasting Ethical Foundations of Terrorism in the 1980s', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 1, no. 3, July 1989, p. 363.
18. National Science Foundation, Science and Engineering Degrees: 1966-94 (Arlington, VA: National Science Foundation, 1996), Table 1, p. 35.
19. See Erhard Geissler, 'Implications of Genetic Engineering for Chemical and Biological Warfare', in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook 1984 (London: Taylor & Francis, 1984), pp. 421-51; Malcolm Dando, '"Discriminating" Bio-Weapons Could Target Ethnic Groups', Jane's International Defense Review, March 1997, pp. 77-78; and US Department of Defense, Advances in Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering: Implications for the Development of New Biological Warfare Agents (Washington DC: US Department of Defense, June 1996), available at www.acq.osd.mil/cp/biotech96.htm.
20. See Erhard Geissler, 'Implications of Genetic Engineering for Chemical and Biological Warfare', in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook 1984 (London: Taylor & Francis, 1984), pp. 421-51; Malcolm Dando, '"Discriminating" Bio-Weapons Could Target Ethnic Groups', Jane's International Defense Review, March 1997, pp. 77-78; and US Department of Defense, Advances in Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering: Implications for the Development of New Biological Warfare Agents (Washington DC: US Department of Defense, June 1996), available at www.acq.osd.mil/cp/biotech96.htm.
21. See Erhard Geissler, 'Implications of Genetic Engineering for Chemical and Biological Warfare', in Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), World Armaments and Disarmament: SIPRI Yearbook 1984 (London: Taylor & Francis, 1984), pp. 421-51; Malcolm Dando, '"Discriminating" Bio-Weapons Could Target Ethnic Groups', Jane's International Defense Review, March 1997, pp. 77-78; and US Department of Defense, Advances in Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering: Implications for the Development of New Biological Warfare Agents (Washington DC: US Department of Defense, June 1996), available at www.acq.osd.mil/cp/biotech96.htm.
22. Likewise, with respect to physical traffic, 'huge increases in the volume of goods and people crossing borders and competitive pressures to speed the flow of trade by easing inspections and reducing paperwork make it easier to hide contraband'. See Jessica T. Matthews, 'Power Shift', Foreign Affairs, vol. 76, no. 1, January-February 1997, pp. 50-66.
23. See National Research Council, Cryptography's Role in Securing the Information Society (Washington DC: National Research Council, 1996).
24. Louis J. Freeh, 'The Impact of Encryption on Public Safety', statement before the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, US House of Representatives, Washington DC, 9 September 1997, available at www.fbi.gov/congress.
25. John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, The Advent of Netwar (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1996), pp. 15-16, 43, 81-82.
26. US Department of State, Patterns of Global Terrorism 1996 (Washington DC: US Department of State, April 1997), p. 1, available at www.state.gov/www/ global/terrorism. The overall drop in the incidence of terrorism noted by the State Department results from the post-Cold War decline in left-wing, ideologically motivated terrorism and a marked drop in state-sponsored international terrorism.
27. US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Terror in the United States 1995 (Washington DC: FBI, 1996), available at www.fbi.gov.
28. Bruce Hoffman, 'Terrorism and WMD: Some Preliminary Hypotheses', Nonproliferation Review, vol. 4, no. 3, Spring-Summer 1997, p. 47.
29. In 1968, none of the 11 identified international terrorist groups was religiously motivated; in 1980, two of 64 were; in 1992, 11 of approximately 50. Data from the RAND-St Andrews University Chronology of International Terrorist Incidents, Centre for the Study of Terrorism, St Andrews University, Scotland.
30. See Bruce Hoffman, 'Holy Terror': The Implications of Terrorism Motivated by a Religious Imperative (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1993) pp. 11-14.
31. This thesis is developed and applied to Sikh religious violence in Mark Juergensmeyer, 'The Logic of Religious Violence', in David Rapoport (ed.). Inside Terrorist Organizations (New York: Columbia University Press, 1988), pp. 185-90.
32. See Hoffman, 'Terrorism and WMD', pp. 48-49; Hoffman, 'The Contrasting Ethical Foundations', pp. 361-77; and Jenkins, 'Understanding the Link between Motives and Methods', p. 48.
33. See Hoffman, 'Terrorism and WMD', pp. 48-49; Hoffman, 'The Contrasting Ethical Foundations', pp. 361-77; and Jenkins, 'Understanding the Link between Motives and Methods', p. 48.
34. See Hoffman, 'Terrorism and WMD', pp. 48-49; Hoffman, 'The Contrasting Ethical Foundations', pp. 361-77; and Jenkins, 'Understanding the Link between Motives and Methods', p. 48.
35. On the Khobar bombing, see US Department of State, Bureau of Diplomatic Security, Significant Incidents of Political Violence against Americans 1996 (Washington DC: US Department of State, July 1997); US Congress, Bomb Attack in Saudi Arabia, Hearings before the Committee on Armed Services, US Senate (Washington DC: US GPO, 1997); and US Congress, Terrorist Attack against United States Military Forces in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, hearings before the Committee on National Security, US House of Representatives (Washington DC: US GPO, 1997).
36. On the Khobar bombing, see US Department of State, Bureau of Diplomatic Security, Significant Incidents of Political Violence against Americans 1996 (Washington DC: US Department of State, July 1997); US Congress, Bomb Attack in Saudi Arabia, Hearings before the Committee on Armed Services, US Senate (Washington DC: US GPO, 1997); and US Congress, Terrorist Attack against United States Military Forces in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, hearings before the Committee on National Security, US House of Representatives (Washington DC: US GPO, 1997).
37. On the Khobar bombing, see US Department of State, Bureau of Diplomatic Security, Significant Incidents of Political Violence against Americans 1996 (Washington DC: US Department of State, July 1997); US Congress, Bomb Attack in Saudi Arabia, Hearings before the Committee on Armed Services, US Senate (Washington DC: US GPO, 1997); and US Congress, Terrorist Attack against United States Military Forces in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, hearings before the Committee on National Security, US House of Representatives (Washington DC: US GPO, 1997).
38. See Stan Taylor, The Radical Right in Britain', in Peter H. Merkl and Leonard Weinberg (eds), Encounters with the Contemporary Radical Right (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 165-84; Ekkart Zimmermann and Thomas Saalfeld, 'The Three Waves of West German Right-Wing Extremism', in ibid., pp. 50-74; William Safran, The National Front in France: From Lunatic Fringe to Limited Respectability', in ibid., pp. 19- 49; Ehud Sprinzak, 'The Israeli Radical Right: History, Culture, and Polities', in ibid., pp. 132-61; Vladislav Krasnov, 'Pamiat: Russian Right-Wing Radicalism', in ibid., pp. 111-31; an d Paul Wilkinson, 'Violence and Terror and the Extreme Right', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 7, no. 4, Winter 1995, pp. 82-93.
39. See Stan Taylor, The Radical Right in Britain', in Peter H. Merkl and Leonard Weinberg (eds), Encounters with the Contemporary Radical Right (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 165-84; Ekkart Zimmermann and Thomas Saalfeld, 'The Three Waves of West German Right-Wing Extremism', in ibid., pp. 50-74; William Safran, The National Front in France: From Lunatic Fringe to Limited Respectability', in ibid., pp. 19- 49; Ehud Sprinzak, 'The Israeli Radical Right: History, Culture, and Polities', in ibid., pp. 132-61; Vladislav Krasnov, 'Pamiat: Russian Right-Wing Radicalism', in ibid., pp. 111-31; an d Paul Wilkinson, 'Violence and Terror and the Extreme Right', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 7, no. 4, Winter 1995, pp. 82-93.
40. See Stan Taylor, The Radical Right in Britain', in Peter H. Merkl and Leonard Weinberg (eds), Encounters with the Contemporary Radical Right (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 165-84; Ekkart Zimmermann and Thomas Saalfeld, 'The Three Waves of West German Right-Wing Extremism', in ibid., pp. 50-74; William Safran, The National Front in France: From Lunatic Fringe to Limited Respectability', in ibid., pp. 19-49; Ehud Sprinzak, 'The Israeli Radical Right: History, Culture, and Polities', in ibid., pp. 132-61; Vladislav Krasnov, 'Pamiat: Russian Right-Wing Radicalism', in ibid., pp. 111-31; an d Paul Wilkinson, 'Violence and Terror and the Extreme Right', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 7, no. 4, Winter 1995, pp. 82-93.
41. See Stan Taylor, The Radical Right in Britain', in Peter H. Merkl and Leonard Weinberg (eds), Encounters with the Contemporary Radical Right (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 165-84; Ekkart Zimmermann and Thomas Saalfeld, 'The Three Waves of West German Right-Wing Extremism', in ibid., pp. 50-74; William Safran, The National Front in France: From Lunatic Fringe to Limited Respectability', in ibid., pp. 19- 49; Ehud Sprinzak, 'The Israeli Radical Right: History, Culture, and Polities', in ibid., pp. 132-61; Vladislav Krasnov, 'Pamiat: Russian Right-Wing Radicalism', in ibid., pp. 111-31; an d Paul Wilkinson, 'Violence and Terror and the Extreme Right', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 7, no. 4, Winter 1995, pp. 82-93.
42. See Stan Taylor, The Radical Right in Britain', in Peter H. Merkl and Leonard Weinberg (eds), Encounters with the Contemporary Radical Right (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 165-84; Ekkart Zimmermann and Thomas Saalfeld, 'The Three Waves of West German Right-Wing Extremism', in ibid., pp. 50-74; William Safran, The National Front in France: From Lunatic Fringe to Limited Respectability', in ibid., pp. 19- 49; Ehud Sprinzak, 'The Israeli Radical Right: History, Culture, and Polities', in ibid., pp. 132-61; Vladislav Krasnov, 'Pamiat: Russian Right-Wing Radicalism', in ibid., pp. 111-31; an d Paul Wilkinson, 'Violence and Terror and the Extreme Right', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 7, no. 4, Winter 1995, pp. 82-93.
43. See Stan Taylor, The Radical Right in Britain', in Peter H. Merkl and Leonard Weinberg (eds), Encounters with the Contemporary Radical Right (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993), pp. 165-84; Ekkart Zimmermann and Thomas Saalfeld, 'The Three Waves of West German Right-Wing Extremism', in ibid., pp. 50-74; William Safran, The National Front in France: From Lunatic Fringe to Limited Respectability', in ibid., pp. 19- 49; Ehud Sprinzak, 'The Israeli Radical Right: History, Culture, and Polities', in ibid., pp. 132-61; Vladislav Krasnov, 'Pamiat: Russian Right-Wing Radicalism', in ibid., pp. 111-31; an d Paul Wilkinson, 'Violence and Terror and the Extreme Right', Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 7, no. 4, Winter 1995, pp. 82-93.
44. See ibid., p. 83; and Ehud Sprinzak, 'Right Wing Terrorism in a Comparative Perspective: The Case of Split Delegitimization', ibid., vol. 7, no. 1, Spring 1995, pp. 17-43.
45. See ibid., p. 83; and Ehud Sprinzak, 'Right Wing Terrorism in a Comparative Perspective: The Case of Split Delegitimization', ibid., vol. 7, no. 1, Spring 1995, pp. 17-43.
46. See Martha Crenshaw, 'An Organizational Approach to the Analysis of Political Terrorism', Orbis, vol. 29, no. 3, Autumn 1985, pp. 473-87.
47. For a detailed set of recommendations directed at the US government, see Richard A. Falkenrath, Robert D. Newman and Bradley Thayer, America's Achilles' Heel: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Terrorism and Covert Attack (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press), pp. 261-336.
48. For an excellent study of these issues, see Philip B. Heymann, Terrorism and America: A Commonsense Strategy for a Democratic Society (Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press, 1998).
49. As a corollary to this, states should also not begin to retreat pre-emptively from their international commitments, even if these are sometimes the source of heightened terrorist risk, as some analysts, such as Richard K. Betts, have suggested. See Betts, 'The New Threat of Mass Destruction', Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, no. 1, January-February 1998, pp. 26-41.
50. On the US concern, see President Bill Clinton's 'Commencement Address', the US Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD, 22 May 1998. The text of this speech is available at www.pub.whitehouse.gov/ uri-res/I2R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/ 1998/5/26/18.text.1.
51. For an excellent analysis of initial US efforts in this area, see Jonathan B. Tucker, 'National Health and Medical Services Response to Incidents of Chemical and Biological Terrorism', Journal of the American Medical Association, vol. 278, no. 5, August 1997, pp. 362-68.
52. Many national and international epidemiological-surveillance systems were allowed to decline in the 1980s, a period of misplaced optimism in the ability to manage infectious-disease threats. In the 1990s, these systems have struggled to cope with the emergence of new infectious diseases (such as Ebola, AIDS, Lyme disease, Legionnaires' disease and the hanta virus), the massive resurgence of familiar diseases (such as cholera, malaria, yellow fever, diphtheria and tuberculosis), and increasing bacterial resistance to antibiotics. See National Science and Technology Council, Committee on International Science, Engineering, and Technology (CISET), Working Group on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, Global Microbial Threats in the 1990s (Washington DC: The White House, 1996), available at www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/ OSTP/CISET/html/ciset.html.