The future of revolutions at the fin-de-siècle

Third World Quarterly

Volumn 18, Issue 5, 1997, Pages 791-820

  Foran, John ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0002129237     PISSN: 01436597     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01436599714605     Document Type: Article

References (151)

1. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), p 4. In an article on the Iranian Revolution interestingly, she later modified this definition to read 'rapid, basic transformations of a country's state and class structure, and of its dominant ideology'. 'Rentier state and Shi'a Islam in the Iranian Revolution', Theory and Society, 11, 1982, p 265, emphasis added.
2. Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions: A Comparative Analysis of France, Russia, and China (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979), p 4. In an article on the Iranian Revolution interestingly, she later modified this definition to read 'rapid, basic transformations of a country's state and class structure, and of its dominant ideology'. 'Rentier state and Shi'a Islam in the Iranian Revolution', Theory and Society, 11, 1982, p 265, emphasis added.
3. have decidedly mixed feelings about theorising revolutions in a way that encourages prediction. In a nutshell, this stems from a profound belief and background assumption in my scholarship that social change is directed in substantial part by the activities of people, and that no structuralist explanation can do justice to this irreducible element. This means that any model or theory of how people behave can be falsified by people themselves, in part because knowledge of such a theory alters the circumstances in which people act, and in part because people's actions can not be controlled and predicted by our theories about them (this is an insight taken up in the work of Anthony Giddens on structuration theory). As for predicting revolutions, on the one hand I feel that if the model I am developing is capable of explaining past instances, it is likely to be able to say something about the present and future too, but only with the caveats just noted. That is, the epistemological status of this exercise as prediction is dubious; a discussion understood in terms of trends, of possible futures, or as educated guesses about potentials for change, is perhaps on more solid ground. I believe that 'scientific' prediction is a pernicious chimera in the social sciences and, appearances to the contrary, this study should not be read as an example of it, again for the reasons noted, as well as others. For two discussions of the role of prediction in the social sciences generally and in the study of revolutions in particular, see Michael Hechter, Timur Kuran, Randall Collins, Charles Tilly, Edgar Kiser, James Coleman & Alejandro Portes, 'Symposium on prediction in the social sciences', American Journal of Sociology, 100(6), May 1995, pp 1520-1626: and the contributions by Nikki Keddie. Timur Kuran and Jack A. Goldstone to Nikki Keddie (ed) Debating Revolutions. New York: New York University Press, 1995, constituting part one of the book: 'Can revolutions be predicted? Understood?'. I am among the sceptics in these debates about the utility of the exercise of prediction.
4. have decidedly mixed feelings about theorising revolutions in a way that encourages prediction. In a nutshell, this stems from a profound belief and background assumption in my scholarship that social change is directed in substantial part by the activities of people, and that no structuralist explanation can do justice to this irreducible element. This means that any model or theory of how people behave can be falsified by people themselves, in part because knowledge of such a theory alters the circumstances in which people act, and in part because people's actions can not be controlled and predicted by our theories about them (this is an insight taken up in the work of Anthony Giddens on structuration theory). As for predicting revolutions, on the one hand I feel that if the model I am developing is capable of explaining past instances, it is likely to be able to say something about the present and future too, but only with the caveats just noted. That is, the epistemological status of this exercise as prediction is dubious; a discussion understood in terms of trends, of possible futures, or as educated guesses about potentials for change, is perhaps on more solid ground. I believe that 'scientific' prediction is a pernicious chimera in the social sciences and, appearances to the contrary, this study should not be read as an example of it, again for the reasons noted, as well as others. For two discussions of the role of prediction in the social sciences generally and in the study of revolutions in particular, see Michael Hechter, Timur Kuran, Randall Collins, Charles Tilly, Edgar Kiser, James Coleman & Alejandro Portes, 'Symposium on prediction in the social sciences', American Journal of Sociology, 100(6), May 1995, pp 1520-1626: and the contributions by Nikki Keddie. Timur Kuran and Jack A. Goldstone to Nikki Keddie (ed) Debating Revolutions. New York: New York University Press, 1995, constituting part one of the book: 'Can revolutions be predicted? Understood?'. I am among the sceptics in these debates about the utility of the exercise of prediction.
5. A political revolution involves a change in the state with mass participation, but no deep social transformation afterwards.
6. Most of this section is borrowed from another piece of mine: 'The comparative-historical sociology of Third World social revolutions: why a few succeed, why most fail', John Foran (ed), Theorizing Revolutions, London: Routledge. 1997, pp 227-267.
7. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
8. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
9. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
10. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
11. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
12. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
13. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
14. Walter L Goldfrank. 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory: the case of Mexico', Theory and Society, 7, 1979, pp 135-165; John Walton, Reluctant Rebels: Comparative Studies of Revolution and Underdevelopment, New York: Columbia University Press, 1984; Jeff Goodwin & Theda Skocpol, 'Explaining revolutions in the contemporary Third World', Politics & Society. 17(4), 1989, pp 489-509; Farideh Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions: Iran and Nicaragua, Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1990; Timothy P Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America. A Comparative Study of Insurgents and Regimes since 1956, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992; and Jack A Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr & Farrokh Moshiri (eds), Revolutions of the Late Twentieth Century, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1991. For critical evaluations of much of this work, see John Foran, 'Theories of revolution revisited: toward a fourth generation?'. Sociological Theory, 11(1), 1993, pp 1-20; and Foran 'Revolutionizing theory/revising revolution: state, culture, and society in recent works on revolution', Contention: Debates in Society, Culture and Science, 2(2), 1993, pp 65-88.
15. John Foran, 'theory of Third World social revolutions: Iran, Nicaragua, and El Salvador compared', Critical Sociology, 19(2), 1992, pp 3-27; Foran, Fragile Resistance: Social Transformation in Iran from 1500 to the Revolution, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); and Foran, 'The causes of Latin American social revolutions: searching for patterns in Mexico, Cuba, and Nicaragua', in Peter Lengyel & Volker Bornschier (eds). World Society Studies, volume 3: Conflicts and New Departures in World Society, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1993, pp 209-244.
16. John Foran, 'theory of Third World social revolutions: Iran, Nicaragua, and El Salvador compared', Critical Sociology, 19(2), 1992, pp 3-27; Foran, Fragile Resistance: Social Transformation in Iran from 1500 to the Revolution, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); and Foran, 'The causes of Latin American social revolutions: searching for patterns in Mexico, Cuba, and Nicaragua', in Peter Lengyel & Volker Bornschier (eds). World Society Studies, volume 3: Conflicts and New Departures in World Society, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1993, pp 209-244.
17. John Foran, 'theory of Third World social revolutions: Iran, Nicaragua, and El Salvador compared', Critical Sociology, 19(2), 1992, pp 3-27; Foran, Fragile Resistance: Social Transformation in Iran from 1500 to the Revolution, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993); and Foran, 'The causes of Latin American social revolutions: searching for patterns in Mexico, Cuba, and Nicaragua', in Peter Lengyel & Volker Bornschier (eds). World Society Studies, volume 3: Conflicts and New Departures in World Society, New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers, 1993, pp 209-244.
18. See Fernando Henrique Cardoso & Enzo Faletto, Dependency and Development in Latin America, trans Marjory Mattingly Urquidi, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1979; and John Foran, 'An historical-sociological framework for the study of long-term transformations in the Third World', Humanity and Society, 16(3), 1992, pp 330-349.
19. See Fernando Henrique Cardoso & Enzo Faletto, Dependency and Development in Latin America, trans Marjory Mattingly Urquidi, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1979; and John Foran, 'An historical-sociological framework for the study of long-term transformations in the Third World', Humanity and Society, 16(3), 1992, pp 330-349.
20. The vulnerabilities of this type of state are now widely agreed upon in the literature on revolutions; all that varies is the terminology used to characterise it. Thus, in Wickham-Crowley's colourful language, it is a 'mafiacracy'; for Farhi, 'personalist authoritarianism'; for Goldstone, a 'neopatrimonial' state; for Matthew Shugart, a 'sultanistic regime'. See Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, p 9; Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions; Jack Goldstone, 'Revolutions and superpowers', J R Adelman (ed) Superpowers and Revolution, New York: Praeger, 1986, pp 38-38; and Matthew Soberg Shugart, 'Patterns of revolution', Theory and Society, 18(2), 1989, pp 249-271. Robert Dix probably first identified the weaknesses of this type of state in 'Why revolutions succeed and fail', in Polity, XVI(3), 1984, pp 423-446.
21. The vulnerabilities of this type of state are now widely agreed upon in the literature on revolutions; all that varies is the terminology used to characterise it. Thus, in Wickham-Crowley's colourful language, it is a 'mafiacracy'; for Farhi, 'personalist authoritarianism'; for Goldstone, a 'neopatrimonial' state; for Matthew Shugart, a 'sultanistic regime'. See Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, p 9; Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions; Jack Goldstone, 'Revolutions and superpowers', J R Adelman (ed) Superpowers and Revolution, New York: Praeger, 1986, pp 38-38; and Matthew Soberg Shugart, 'Patterns of revolution', Theory and Society, 18(2), 1989, pp 249-271. Robert Dix probably first identified the weaknesses of this type of state in 'Why revolutions succeed and fail', in Polity, XVI(3), 1984, pp 423-446.
22. The vulnerabilities of this type of state are now widely agreed upon in the literature on revolutions; all that varies is the terminology used to characterise it. Thus, in Wickham-Crowley's colourful language, it is a 'mafiacracy'; for Farhi, 'personalist authoritarianism'; for Goldstone, a 'neopatrimonial' state; for Matthew Shugart, a 'sultanistic regime'. See Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, p 9; Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions; Jack Goldstone, 'Revolutions and superpowers', J R Adelman (ed) Superpowers and Revolution, New York: Praeger, 1986, pp 38-38; and Matthew Soberg Shugart, 'Patterns of revolution', Theory and Society, 18(2), 1989, pp 249-271. Robert Dix probably first identified the weaknesses of this type of state in 'Why revolutions succeed and fail', in Polity, XVI(3), 1984, pp 423-446.
23. The vulnerabilities of this type of state are now widely agreed upon in the literature on revolutions; all that varies is the terminology used to characterise it. Thus, in Wickham-Crowley's colourful language, it is a 'mafiacracy'; for Farhi, 'personalist authoritarianism'; for Goldstone, a 'neopatrimonial' state; for Matthew Shugart, a 'sultanistic regime'. See Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, p 9; Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions; Jack Goldstone, 'Revolutions and superpowers', J R Adelman (ed) Superpowers and Revolution, New York: Praeger, 1986, pp 38-38; and Matthew Soberg Shugart, 'Patterns of revolution', Theory and Society, 18(2), 1989, pp 249-271. Robert Dix probably first identified the weaknesses of this type of state in 'Why revolutions succeed and fail', in Polity, XVI(3), 1984, pp 423-446.
24. The vulnerabilities of this type of state are now widely agreed upon in the literature on revolutions; all that varies is the terminology used to characterise it. Thus, in Wickham-Crowley's colourful language, it is a 'mafiacracy'; for Farhi, 'personalist authoritarianism'; for Goldstone, a 'neopatrimonial' state; for Matthew Shugart, a 'sultanistic regime'. See Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, p 9; Farhi, States and Urban-Based Revolutions; Jack Goldstone, 'Revolutions and superpowers', J R Adelman (ed) Superpowers and Revolution, New York: Praeger, 1986, pp 38-38; and Matthew Soberg Shugart, 'Patterns of revolution', Theory and Society, 18(2), 1989, pp 249-271. Robert Dix probably first identified the weaknesses of this type of state in 'Why revolutions succeed and fail', in Polity, XVI(3), 1984, pp 423-446.
25. See Foran, Fragile Resistance; Foran 'theory of Third World social revolutions'; Foran 'Discourses and social forces: the role of culture and cultural studies in understanding revolutions', in Foran (ed) Theorizing Revolutions, pp 203-226, London and New York: Routledge, 1997. As I make clear in that chapter, this concept draws on the work of A Sivanandan, James Scott, Farideh Farhi, Raymond Williams, Stuart Hall and Antonio Gramsci, among many others.
26. See Foran, Fragile Resistance; Foran 'theory of Third World social revolutions'; Foran 'Discourses and social forces: the role of culture and cultural studies in understanding revolutions', in Foran (ed) Theorizing Revolutions, pp 203-226, London and New York: Routledge, 1997. As I make clear in that chapter, this concept draws on the work of A Sivanandan, James Scott, Farideh Farhi, Raymond Williams, Stuart Hall and Antonio Gramsci, among many others.
27. See Foran, Fragile Resistance; Foran 'theory of Third World social revolutions'; Foran 'Discourses and social forces: the role of culture and cultural studies in understanding revolutions', in Foran (ed) Theorizing Revolutions, pp 203-226, London and New York: Routledge, 1997. As I make clear in that chapter, this concept draws on the work of A Sivanandan, James Scott, Farideh Farhi, Raymond Williams, Stuart Hall and Antonio Gramsci, among many others.
28. Alexis de Tocqueville, The Old Regime and the French Revolution, trans Stuart Gilbert, Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Company, 1955 [1856]; and James C Davies, 'Toward a theory of revolution', American Sociological Review, 27, 1962, pp 5-19.
29. Alexis de Tocqueville, The Old Regime and the French Revolution, trans Stuart Gilbert, Garden City, NY: Doubleday & Company, 1955 [1856]; and James C Davies, 'Toward a theory of revolution', American Sociological Review, 27, 1962, pp 5-19.
30. On Iran, for example, see Mansoor Moaddel, Class, Politics, and Ideology in the Iranian Revolution, New York: Columbia University Press, 1993.
31. Foran, 'The comparative-historical study of Third World social revolutions'.
32. This notion was pioneered in 1979 by Walter Goldfrank, who refers to it as a 'permissive world context' in 'Theories of revolution and revolution without theory'. It turns somewhat on its head Skocpol's attention to international pressures as the cause of revolution in the case of the powerful agrarian empires she studied.
33. Foran, 'A theory of Third World social revolutions' and 'The causes of Latin American social revolutions'.
34. Foran, "The Comparative-historical sociology of Third World social revolutions".
35. Saddam Hussein, it is true, legitimates his rule through institutional arrangements that include elections. And Fidel Castro in Cuba does the same, apparently. But I shall argue that Hussein and Mobutu are the closest to the pure type of dictator that has proven vulnerable to revolution, in the mould of Porfirio Díaz, Batista, the shah of Iran, or Somoza, whereas the Cuban Revolution has deep roots in Cuban society, and the current Iranian regime, though less solidly legitimated, can claim something similar.
36. Peter Evans has used Zaire as the prototype case of his evocatively labelled 'predatory state'. Evans, Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995. The predatory state is one in which maximisation of individual wealth by an elite takes precedence over and prevents attainment of collective social goals.
37. This earlier version, with these speculations, appeared as a 1996 working paper of the International Institute at the University of Michigan.
38. Evans reports World Bank and other data showing a decline in per capita GNP of 2% a year since 1965, as well as a destruction of the road system from 90000 to 6000 miles. Evans, Embedded Autonomy, p 43.
39. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
40. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
41. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
42. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
43. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
44. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
45. Zaire is discussed in Richard Snyder, 'Combining structural and voluntarist explanatory perspectives: paths out of sultanistic dictatorships', forthcoming in H E Chehabi & Juan J Linz (eds), Sultanistic Regimes. Some of the disarray of the opposition before 1996 is conveyed by John Darnton, 'Zaire drifts into anarchy as authority collapses', New York Times, 24 May 1994. Other relevant works include Winsome J Leslie, Zaire: Continuity and Political Change in an Oppressive State (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993; Makau wa Mutua, Zaire: Repression as Policy: A Human Rights Report, New York: Lawyers Committee for Human Rights, 1990; Michael G Schatzburg, The Dialectics of Oppression in Zaire, Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988; Cindy Shiner, 'Zaire's weighty crisis persists', Africa News, 36(1), 1992, pp 1-3; and C Young, 'Zaire - the shattered illusions of the integral state', Journal of Modem African Studies, 37(2), 1994, pp 247-263.
46. On the political economy of Iraq see: Marion Farouk-Sluglett & Peter Sluglett, Iraq Since 1958: From Revolution to Dictatorship, London: Kegan Paul, 1987.
47. On the nature of the regime see Samir al-Khalil, Republic of Fear: The Politics of Modern Iraq, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989; Middle East Watch, Human Rights in Iraq, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990; and CARDRI (eds) Saddam's Iraq - Revolution or Reaction?, London: Zed Press, 1985.
48. On the nature of the regime see Samir al-Khalil, Republic of Fear: The Politics of Modern Iraq, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989; Middle East Watch, Human Rights in Iraq, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990; and CARDRI (eds) Saddam's Iraq - Revolution or Reaction?, London: Zed Press, 1985.
49. On the nature of the regime see Samir al-Khalil, Republic of Fear: The Politics of Modern Iraq, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1989; Middle East Watch, Human Rights in Iraq, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1990; and CARDRI (eds) Saddam's Iraq - Revolution or Reaction?, London: Zed Press, 1985.
50. Economic conditions in Iraq have been hard, especially in 1991-92, followed by some stabilisation (and continued hardship) at a lower level of activity since.
51. A White House official said on 18 March 1991: 'We had been assuming all along that Saddam would survive the war and that he would survive the current fighting in Iraq. The feeling was that after the dust settled, and Iraq found itself still saddled with sanctions and war reparations payments, they would start looking for scapegoats and Saddam would eventually fall'. New York Times, 18 March 1991. Hopes are aroused periodically by reports of internal disagreements among Hussein's inner circle, most recently when two of his sons-in-law defected in August 1995; when they returned in February 1996, they were gunned down in a Baghdad street, New York Times, 25 February 1996.
52. A White House official said on 18 March 1991: 'We had been assuming all along that Saddam would survive the war and that he would survive the current fighting in Iraq. The feeling was that after the dust settled, and Iraq found itself still saddled with sanctions and war reparations payments, they would start looking for scapegoats and Saddam would eventually fall'. New York Times, 18 March 1991. Hopes are aroused periodically by reports of internal disagreements among Hussein's inner circle, most recently when two of his sons-in-law defected in August 1995; when they returned in February 1996, they were gunned down in a Baghdad street, New York Times, 25 February 1996.
53. This refers to a successful process of consolidation of the revolution, in addition to its institutionalisation. On this distinction, see Eric Selbin, Modern Latin American Revolutions, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1993.
54. On developments in Iran since 1989, see Anoushiravan Ehteshami, After Khomeini: The Iranian Second Republic, New York: Routledge, 1995; Massoud Karshenas & M Hesham Pesaran, 'Economic reform and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 89-111; Homa Omid, Islam and the Post-Revolutionary Stale in Iran, New York: St Martin's, 1994; Haggay Ram, 'Crushing the opposition: adversaries of the Islamic Republic of Iran', Middle East Journal, 46(3), 1992, pp 426-439; and Saeed Rahnema & Sohrab Behdad (eds) Iran After the Revolution, Crisis of an Islamic State, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996. For scattered evidence of local agitations and unrest inside the country, see New York Times, 1, 12 June, 1992; 5 April/30 May 1995.
55. On developments in Iran since 1989, see Anoushiravan Ehteshami, After Khomeini: The Iranian Second Republic, New York: Routledge, 1995; Massoud Karshenas & M Hesham Pesaran, 'Economic reform and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 89-111; Homa Omid, Islam and the Post-Revolutionary Stale in Iran, New York: St Martin's, 1994; Haggay Ram, 'Crushing the opposition: adversaries of the Islamic Republic of Iran', Middle East Journal, 46(3), 1992, pp 426-439; and Saeed Rahnema & Sohrab Behdad (eds) Iran After the Revolution, Crisis of an Islamic State, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996. For scattered evidence of local agitations and unrest inside the country, see New York Times, 1, 12 June, 1992; 5 April/30 May 1995.
56. On developments in Iran since 1989, see Anoushiravan Ehteshami, After Khomeini: The Iranian Second Republic, New York: Routledge, 1995; Massoud Karshenas & M Hesham Pesaran, 'Economic reform and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 89-111; Homa Omid, Islam and the Post-Revolutionary Stale in Iran, New York: St Martin's, 1994; Haggay Ram, 'Crushing the opposition: adversaries of the Islamic Republic of Iran', Middle East Journal, 46(3), 1992, pp 426-439; and Saeed Rahnema & Sohrab Behdad (eds) Iran After the Revolution, Crisis of an Islamic State, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996. For scattered evidence of local agitations and unrest inside the country, see New York Times, 1, 12 June, 1992; 5 April/30 May 1995.
57. On developments in Iran since 1989, see Anoushiravan Ehteshami, After Khomeini: The Iranian Second Republic, New York: Routledge, 1995; Massoud Karshenas & M Hesham Pesaran, 'Economic reform and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 89-111; Homa Omid, Islam and the Post-Revolutionary Stale in Iran, New York: St Martin's, 1994; Haggay Ram, 'Crushing the opposition: adversaries of the Islamic Republic of Iran', Middle East Journal, 46(3), 1992, pp 426-439; and Saeed Rahnema & Sohrab Behdad (eds) Iran After the Revolution, Crisis of an Islamic State, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996. For scattered evidence of local agitations and unrest inside the country, see New York Times, 1, 12 June, 1992; 5 April/30 May 1995.
58. On developments in Iran since 1989, see Anoushiravan Ehteshami, After Khomeini: The Iranian Second Republic, New York: Routledge, 1995; Massoud Karshenas & M Hesham Pesaran, 'Economic reform and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 89-111; Homa Omid, Islam and the Post-Revolutionary Stale in Iran, New York: St Martin's, 1994; Haggay Ram, 'Crushing the opposition: adversaries of the Islamic Republic of Iran', Middle East Journal, 46(3), 1992, pp 426-439; and Saeed Rahnema & Sohrab Behdad (eds) Iran After the Revolution, Crisis of an Islamic State, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996. For scattered evidence of local agitations and unrest inside the country, see New York Times, 1, 12 June, 1992; 5 April/30 May 1995.
59. On developments in Iran since 1989, see Anoushiravan Ehteshami, After Khomeini: The Iranian Second Republic, New York: Routledge, 1995; Massoud Karshenas & M Hesham Pesaran, 'Economic reform and the reconstruction of the Iranian economy', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 89-111; Homa Omid, Islam and the Post-Revolutionary Stale in Iran, New York: St Martin's, 1994; Haggay Ram, 'Crushing the opposition: adversaries of the Islamic Republic of Iran', Middle East Journal, 46(3), 1992, pp 426-439; and Saeed Rahnema & Sohrab Behdad (eds) Iran After the Revolution, Crisis of an Islamic State, New York: St Martin's Press, 1996. For scattered evidence of local agitations and unrest inside the country, see New York Times, 1, 12 June, 1992; 5 April/30 May 1995.
60. On Egyptian political economy, see Galal A Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990, Leiden: E J Brill, 1995; Robert Springborg, The Political Economy of Mubarak's Egypt, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989; and Derek Hopwood, Egypt: Politics and Society 1945-1990, London: Routledge, 1993. On the opposition, see Karim el-Gawhary, 'Report from a war zone: Gama'at vs government in Upper Egypt, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), Report, number 194/95, May-June/July-August 1995, pp 49-51; Giles Keppel, 'Islamists versus the state in Egypt and Algeria, Daedalus, 124(3), 1995, pp 109-127; and Patrick D Gaffney, The Prophet's Pulpit: Islamic Preaching in Contemporary Egypt, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994.
61. On Egyptian political economy, see Galal A Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990, Leiden: E J Brill, 1995; Robert Springborg, The Political Economy of Mubarak's Egypt, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989; and Derek Hopwood, Egypt: Politics and Society 1945-1990, London: Routledge, 1993. On the opposition, see Karim el-Gawhary, 'Report from a war zone: Gama'at vs government in Upper Egypt, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), Report, number 194/95, May-June/July-August 1995, pp 49-51; Giles Keppel, 'Islamists versus the state in Egypt and Algeria, Daedalus, 124(3), 1995, pp 109-127; and Patrick D Gaffney, The Prophet's Pulpit: Islamic Preaching in Contemporary Egypt, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994.
62. On Egyptian political economy, see Galal A Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990, Leiden: E J Brill, 1995; Robert Springborg, The Political Economy of Mubarak's Egypt, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989; and Derek Hopwood, Egypt: Politics and Society 1945-1990, London: Routledge, 1993. On the opposition, see Karim el-Gawhary, 'Report from a war zone: Gama'at vs government in Upper Egypt, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), Report, number 194/95, May-June/July-August 1995, pp 49-51; Giles Keppel, 'Islamists versus the state in Egypt and Algeria, Daedalus, 124(3), 1995, pp 109-127; and Patrick D Gaffney, The Prophet's Pulpit: Islamic Preaching in Contemporary Egypt, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994.
63. On Egyptian political economy, see Galal A Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990, Leiden: E J Brill, 1995; Robert Springborg, The Political Economy of Mubarak's Egypt, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989; and Derek Hopwood, Egypt: Politics and Society 1945-1990, London: Routledge, 1993. On the opposition, see Karim el-Gawhary, 'Report from a war zone: Gama'at vs government in Upper Egypt, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), Report, number 194/95, May-June/July-August 1995, pp 49-51; Giles Keppel, 'Islamists versus the state in Egypt and Algeria, Daedalus, 124(3), 1995, pp 109-127; and Patrick D Gaffney, The Prophet's Pulpit: Islamic Preaching in Contemporary Egypt, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994.
64. On Egyptian political economy, see Galal A Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990, Leiden: E J Brill, 1995; Robert Springborg, The Political Economy of Mubarak's Egypt, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989; and Derek Hopwood, Egypt: Politics and Society 1945-1990, London: Routledge, 1993. On the opposition, see Karim el-Gawhary, 'Report from a war zone: Gama'at vs government in Upper Egypt, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), Report, number 194/95, May-June/July-August 1995, pp 49-51; Giles Keppel, 'Islamists versus the state in Egypt and Algeria, Daedalus, 124(3), 1995, pp 109-127; and Patrick D Gaffney, The Prophet's Pulpit: Islamic Preaching in Contemporary Egypt, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994.
65. On Egyptian political economy, see Galal A Amin, Egypt's Economic Predicament: A Study in the Interaction of External Pressure, Political Folly and Social Tension in Egypt, 1960-1990, Leiden: E J Brill, 1995; Robert Springborg, The Political Economy of Mubarak's Egypt, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1989; and Derek Hopwood, Egypt: Politics and Society 1945-1990, London: Routledge, 1993. On the opposition, see Karim el-Gawhary, 'Report from a war zone: Gama'at vs government in Upper Egypt, Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), Report, number 194/95, May-June/July-August 1995, pp 49-51; Giles Keppel, 'Islamists versus the state in Egypt and Algeria, Daedalus, 124(3), 1995, pp 109-127; and Patrick D Gaffney, The Prophet's Pulpit: Islamic Preaching in Contemporary Egypt, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994.
66. Like many Middle East specialists, I prefer the term 'Islamist' to 'fundamentalist' because of the imprecision and stereotypical connotations of the latter (among other reasons).
67. Casandra, 'The impending crisis in Egypt', Middle East Journal, 49(1), 1995, pp 9-27.
68. In what sense was Cuba dependent on the USSR? Eighty percent of trade was with that country and there was the yearly subsidy of $3-5 billion that was used to keep Cuba going. But was the USSR exploiting Cuba in the way we usually mean when we speak of dependency? It was not making a profit in Cuba. The problem now is that after the Soviet Union's collapse, as Russia goes through the process of putting its own economic house in order, it has long since concluded that it can no longer afford to subsidise Cuba.
69. See the flurry of articles in the New York Times, 27, 28, 29 February, 1, 15 March 1996.
70. On Castro's views and the July 26 Movement's positions, see Terence Cannon, Revolutionary Cuba (New York: Thomas Y Crowell, 1981. pp 54-57, 97; United States National Archives (USNA), 737.00/8-458, Foreign Service Despatch 5, Park Wollam, Santiago de Cuba, to State Department, 4 August 1958, p 11; 'Ideario economico del Veinte y Seis de Julio', found in USNA, 837.00/3-959, Foreign Service Despatch 982, Gilmore, Havana, to State Department, 9 March 1959; and Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, pp 176-178. The arguments in this and the next two paragraphs are taken from Foran, 'Discourses and social forces'.
71. On Castro's views and the July 26 Movement's positions, see Terence Cannon, Revolutionary Cuba (New York: Thomas Y Crowell, 1981. pp 54-57, 97; United States National Archives (USNA), 737.00/8-458, Foreign Service Despatch 5, Park Wollam, Santiago de Cuba, to State Department, 4 August 1958, p 11; 'Ideario economico del Veinte y Seis de Julio', found in USNA, 837.00/3-959, Foreign Service Despatch 982, Gilmore, Havana, to State Department, 9 March 1959; and Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, pp 176-178. The arguments in this and the next two paragraphs are taken from Foran, 'Discourses and social forces'.
72. On Castro's views and the July 26 Movement's positions, see Terence Cannon, Revolutionary Cuba (New York: Thomas Y Crowell, 1981. pp 54-57, 97; United States National Archives (USNA), 737.00/8-458, Foreign Service Despatch 5, Park Wollam, Santiago de Cuba, to State Department, 4 August 1958, p 11; 'Ideario economico del Veinte y Seis de Julio', found in USNA, 837.00/3-959, Foreign Service Despatch 982, Gilmore, Havana, to State Department, 9 March 1959; and Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, pp 176-178. The arguments in this and the next two paragraphs are taken from Foran, 'Discourses and social forces'.
73. On Castro's views and the July 26 Movement's positions, see Terence Cannon, Revolutionary Cuba (New York: Thomas Y Crowell, 1981. pp 54-57, 97; United States National Archives (USNA), 737.00/8-458, Foreign Service Despatch 5, Park Wollam, Santiago de Cuba, to State Department, 4 August 1958, p 11; 'Ideario economico del Veinte y Seis de Julio', found in USNA, 837.00/3-959, Foreign Service Despatch 982, Gilmore, Havana, to State Department, 9 March 1959; and Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, pp 176-178. The arguments in this and the next two paragraphs are taken from Foran, 'Discourses and social forces'.
74. On Castro's views and the July 26 Movement's positions, see Terence Cannon, Revolutionary Cuba (New York: Thomas Y Crowell, 1981. pp 54-57, 97; United States National Archives (USNA), 737.00/8-458, Foreign Service Despatch 5, Park Wollam, Santiago de Cuba, to State Department, 4 August 1958, p 11; 'Ideario economico del Veinte y Seis de Julio', found in USNA, 837.00/3-959, Foreign Service Despatch 982, Gilmore, Havana, to State Department, 9 March 1959; and Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution, pp 176-178. The arguments in this and the next two paragraphs are taken from Foran, 'Discourses and social forces'.
75. Interestingly the reception of Castro's message in the USA echoes the Cuban side of the story, both in its diversity and diffuseness, but also in the transparency of its reading by radicals. See the extraordinary revisionist account of these matters by Van Gosse, Where the Boys Are: Cuba, Cold War America and the Making of a New Left, London: Verso, 1993.
76. This reading contradicts Forrest Colburn's thesis (in The Vogue of Revolution in Poor Countries, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1994) that Third World revolutionary regimes have been uniformly Marxist-Leninist in political culture. Cuba is, to be sure, Marxist-Leninist, but à la cubana.
77. Quotes are from the New York Times 11, 12 January 1993.
78. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
79. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
80. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
81. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
82. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in
83. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
84. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
85. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
86. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
87. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
88. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
89. A sampler of recent works on Peru and Sendero Luminoso would include: Manuel Jesús Granados, El PCP Sendero Luminosa y su ldeología, Lima: EAPSA, 1992; Nelson Manrique, 'Political violence, ethnicity and racism in Peru in time of war, Journal of Latin American Cultural Studies, 4(1), 1995, pp. 5-18; Philip Mauceri, 'State reform, coalitions, and the neoliberal autogolpe in Peru, Latin American Research Review, 30(1). 1995, pp 7-37; 'Fatal attraction: Peru's Shining Path', North American Report on the Americas, XXIV(4), 1990/1991; David Scott Palmer, 'Rebellion in rural Peru: the origins and evolution of Sendero Luminoso', Comparative Politics, 18, 1986, pp 127-146; David Scott Palmer (ed), The Shining Path of Peru, New York: St Martin's Press, 1992; David Pion-Berlin, The Ideology of State Terror: Economic Doctrine and Political Repression in Argentina and Peru, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1989; Deborah Poole & Gerardo Renique, Peru: Time of Fear, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1993; Linda J Seligman, Between Reform and Revolution: Political Struggles in the Peruvian Andes, 1969-1991, Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1995: Orin Starn, 'New literature on Peru's Sendero Luminoso', Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 1972, pp 212-226; Susan J Stokes, Cultures in Conflict: Social Movements and the State in Peru, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995; and Simon Strong, Shining Path: The World's Deadliest Revolutionary Force, London: Harper Collins, 1992.
90. Per capita GNP declined by 20% from 1988 to 1989. Benjamin Keen, A History of Latin America, Boston, MA: Houghton-Mifflin, 1996, p 405.
91. There is no doubt that the army engaged in a vicious counterinsurgency in the countryside against Sendero. Sendero denies that it has practised terror against non-military targets, but this has been documented to some degree, at least. A lively discussion of the politics of Sendero from various points of view has taken place on the internet on the 'marxismlist' (marxism@jefferson.village.virginia.edu for 17 February and 3 March 1996).
92. Selbin, Modern Latin American Revolutions, p 148.
93. I have elaborated on the thesis of the limits of the political culture of the Salvadoran left in 'Discourses and social forces'.
94. 'Polls showed that between 70 and 90 percent of the public approved of the autogolpe'. Keen, A History, p 407. However suspect, this appears to indicate real support among some segment of the population.
95. Daniel Wayne, 'Shining Path endures', Latinamerica Press, 21 March 1996, pp 1, 8.
96. This discussion is based on a reading of the English-language press, especially the New York Times and the Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs. Recent scholarly work on the movement includes Abdellah Hammoudi & Stuart Schaar (eds) Algeria's Impasse, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Center of International Studies, 1995; Robert Mortimer, 'Islamists, soldiers, and democrats: the second Algerian war,' Middle East Journal, 50(1), 1996, pp 18-39, Reporters Sans Frontiéres, Le drame algérien: un peuple en otage, Paris: Editions La Découverte, 1994; and Susan Waltz, Human Rights and Reform: Changing the Face of North African Politics, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995.
97. This discussion is based on a reading of the English-language press, especially the New York Times and the Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs. Recent scholarly work on the movement includes Abdellah Hammoudi & Stuart Schaar (eds) Algeria's Impasse, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Center of International Studies, 1995; Robert Mortimer, 'Islamists, soldiers, and democrats: the second Algerian war,' Middle East Journal, 50(1), 1996, pp 18-39, Reporters Sans Frontiéres, Le drame algérien: un peuple en otage, Paris: Editions La Découverte, 1994; and Susan Waltz, Human Rights and Reform: Changing the Face of North African Politics, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995.
98. This discussion is based on a reading of the English-language press, especially the New York Times and the Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs. Recent scholarly work on the movement includes Abdellah Hammoudi & Stuart Schaar (eds) Algeria's Impasse, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Center of International Studies, 1995; Robert Mortimer, 'Islamists, soldiers, and democrats: the second Algerian war,' Middle East Journal, 50(1), 1996, pp 18-39, Reporters Sans Frontiéres, Le drame algérien: un peuple en otage, Paris: Editions La Découverte, 1994; and Susan Waltz, Human Rights and Reform: Changing the Face of North African Politics, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995.
99. This discussion is based on a reading of the English-language press, especially the New York Times and the Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs. Recent scholarly work on the movement includes Abdellah Hammoudi & Stuart Schaar (eds) Algeria's Impasse, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Center of International Studies, 1995; Robert Mortimer, 'Islamists, soldiers, and democrats: the second Algerian war,' Middle East Journal, 50(1), 1996, pp 18-39, Reporters Sans Frontiéres, Le drame algérien: un peuple en otage, Paris: Editions La Découverte, 1994; and Susan Waltz, Human Rights and Reform: Changing the Face of North African Politics, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995.
100. This discussion is based on a reading of the English-language press, especially the New York Times and the Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs. Recent scholarly work on the movement includes Abdellah Hammoudi & Stuart Schaar (eds) Algeria's Impasse, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Center of International Studies, 1995; Robert Mortimer, 'Islamists, soldiers, and democrats: the second Algerian war,' Middle East Journal, 50(1), 1996, pp 18-39, Reporters Sans Frontiéres, Le drame algérien: un peuple en otage, Paris: Editions La Découverte, 1994; and Susan Waltz, Human Rights and Reform: Changing the Face of North African Politics, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995.
101. Val Moghadam, 'Gender and revolutions', in Foran, Theorizing Revolutions, pp 137-167; and Marnia Lazreg, 'Feminism and difference: the perils of writing as a woman on women in Algeria', in Marianne Hirsch & Evelyn Fox Keller (eds), Conflicts in Feminism, New York: Routledge, 1990, pp 326-348.
102. Val Moghadam, 'Gender and revolutions', in Foran, Theorizing Revolutions, pp 137-167; and Marnia Lazreg, 'Feminism and difference: the perils of writing as a woman on women in Algeria', in Marianne Hirsch & Evelyn Fox Keller (eds), Conflicts in Feminism, New York: Routledge, 1990, pp 326-348.
103. New York Times, 26 June 1997.
104. Interestingly, elections require less popular support for a regime change than the great social revolutions. The classic case of a narrowly elected revolutionary regime is that of Salvador Allende's Popular Unity government which took power in Chile in 1970 with 36.6% of the vote.
105. On the movement and its background, see Craig Calhoun, Neither Gods nor Emperors: Students and the Struggle for Democracy in China, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994; and Joseph Fewsmith, Dilemmas of Reform in China: Political Conflict and Economic Debate, Armonk, NY; ME Sharpe, 1994.
106. On the movement and its background, see Craig Calhoun, Neither Gods nor Emperors: Students and the Struggle for Democracy in China, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1994; and Joseph Fewsmith, Dilemmas of Reform in China: Political Conflict and Economic Debate, Armonk, NY; ME Sharpe, 1994.
107. Robin Munro, 'Who died in Beijing, and why', The Nation, 11 June 1990, pp 811-822.
108. The situation in China today is covered in Li Minqi, 'China: six years after Tiananman', Monthly Review Press, 47(8), 1996, pp 1-13.
109. For a prediction of a far less stable future for China based on the factors of population growth, faltering agriculture, and rising popular discontent, see Jack A. Goldstone, The coming Chinese collapse', Foreign Policy, 99, 1995. A recent journalistic report suggests that the current student generation's outlook is decidedly more pro-regime and nationalistic than that of 1989. Patrick E Tyler, 'China's campus model for the 90s: earnest patriot', New York Times, 23 April 1996. The demobilisation of student political fervour is also chronicled in Jianying Zha, China Pop: How Soap Operas, Tabloids, and Bestsellers Are Transforming a Culture, New York: The New Press, 1995.
110. For a prediction of a far less stable future for China based on the factors of population growth, faltering agriculture, and rising popular discontent, see Jack A. Goldstone, The coming Chinese collapse', Foreign Policy, 99, 1995. A recent journalistic report suggests that the current student generation's outlook is decidedly more pro-regime and nationalistic than that of 1989. Patrick E Tyler, 'China's campus model for the 90s: earnest patriot', New York Times, 23 April 1996. The demobilisation of student political fervour is also chronicled in Jianying Zha, China Pop: How Soap Operas, Tabloids, and Bestsellers Are Transforming a Culture, New York: The New Press, 1995.
111. For a prediction of a far less stable future for China based on the factors of population growth, faltering agriculture, and rising popular discontent, see Jack A. Goldstone, The coming Chinese collapse', Foreign Policy, 99, 1995. A recent journalistic report suggests that the current student generation's outlook is decidedly more pro-regime and nationalistic than that of 1989. Patrick E Tyler, 'China's campus model for the 90s: earnest patriot', New York Times, 23 April 1996. The demobilisation of student political fervour is also chronicled in Jianying Zha, China Pop: How Soap Operas, Tabloids, and Bestsellers Are Transforming a Culture, New York: The New Press, 1995.
112. My sources for these events include a reading of the international press, especially the New York Times and the UK Guardian Weekly, which ran dozens of articles on Zaire in the first half of 1997.
113. George Wright, 'Mobutu was "Chaos"', Z Magazine, June 1997, p 39.
114. New York Times, 27 June 1997.
115. This account of contemporary Mexico draws on Keen, A History and James Cockcroft, Mexico: Class Formalion, Capital Accumulation, and the State, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1983. Other useful titles include Roger Bartra, Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993; JM Cypher, State and Capital in Mexico: Development Policy since 1940, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990; Nora Hamilton, The Limits of State Autonomy: Post-Revolutionary Mexico, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982; and Philip Russell, Mexico under Salinas, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994.
116. This account of contemporary Mexico draws on Keen, A History and James Cockcroft, Mexico: Class Formalion, Capital Accumulation, and the State, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1983. Other useful titles include Roger Bartra, Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993; JM Cypher, State and Capital in Mexico: Development Policy since 1940, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990; Nora Hamilton, The Limits of State Autonomy: Post-Revolutionary Mexico, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982; and Philip Russell, Mexico under Salinas, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994.
117. This account of contemporary Mexico draws on Keen, A History and James Cockcroft, Mexico: Class Formalion, Capital Accumulation, and the State, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1983. Other useful titles include Roger Bartra, Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993; JM Cypher, State and Capital in Mexico: Development Policy since 1940, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990; Nora Hamilton, The Limits of State Autonomy: Post-Revolutionary Mexico, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982; and Philip Russell, Mexico under Salinas, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994.
118. This account of contemporary Mexico draws on Keen, A History and James Cockcroft, Mexico: Class Formalion, Capital Accumulation, and the State, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1983. Other useful titles include Roger Bartra, Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993; JM Cypher, State and Capital in Mexico: Development Policy since 1940, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990; Nora Hamilton, The Limits of State Autonomy: Post-Revolutionary Mexico, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982; and Philip Russell, Mexico under Salinas, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994.
119. This account of contemporary Mexico draws on Keen, A History and James Cockcroft, Mexico: Class Formalion, Capital Accumulation, and the State, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1983. Other useful titles include Roger Bartra, Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993; JM Cypher, State and Capital in Mexico: Development Policy since 1940, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990; Nora Hamilton, The Limits of State Autonomy: Post-Revolutionary Mexico, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982; and Philip Russell, Mexico under Salinas, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994.
120. This account of contemporary Mexico draws on Keen, A History and James Cockcroft, Mexico: Class Formalion, Capital Accumulation, and the State, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1983. Other useful titles include Roger Bartra, Agrarian Structure and Political Power in Mexico, Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993; JM Cypher, State and Capital in Mexico: Development Policy since 1940, Boulder, CO: Westview, 1990; Nora Hamilton, The Limits of State Autonomy: Post-Revolutionary Mexico, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1982; and Philip Russell, Mexico under Salinas, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994.
121. Keen, A History, p 301.
122. Susan Tiano, Patriarchy on the Line: Labor, Gender, and Ideology in the Mexican Maquila Industry, Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press, 1995. The first wave of US investment occurred during the dictatorship of Porfirio Díaz (1876-1910), the second between the 1940s and 1970s.
123. UTNE Reader, January/February 1993, p 94.
124. New York Times, 21 September 1992; and Latinamerica Press, 10 December 1992.
125. New York Times, 21 September 1992; and Latinamerica Press, 10 December 1992.
126. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
127. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
128. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
129. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
130. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
131. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
132. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
133. On Chiapas, see Tom Barry (with Harry Browne), Zapata's Revenge: Free Trade and the Farm Crisis in Mexico, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Thomas Benjamin, A Rich Land, A Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas, Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1989; George A Collier (with Elizabeth Lowery Quaratiello). Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion in Chiapas, Oakland, CA: Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy, 1994; Dan La Botz, Democracy in Mexico: Peasant Rebellion and Political Reform, Boston, MA: South End Press, 1995; Philip Russell, The Chiapas Rebellion, Austin, TX: Mexico Resource Center, 1994; John Ross, Rebellion from the Roots: Indian Uprising in Chiapas, Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 1995; and Shadows of Tender Fury: The Letters and Communiqués of Subcomandante Marcos and the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, New York: Monthly Review Press, 1995. The works of anthropologist Jan Rus are also crucial for understanding the rebellion, among them 'Land adaptation to global change: the reordering of native society in highland Chiapas, 1974-1994', in Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe, 58, 1995, pp 82-91.
134. On women see Santa Barbara News Press, 21 January 1994. The Mexican paper La Jornada (9 March 1996) reported a demonstration of 5000 indigenous women in San Cristobal de las Casas on International Women's Day, 1996.
135. On women see Santa Barbara News Press, 21 January 1994. The Mexican paper La Jornada (9 March 1996) reported a demonstration of 5000 indigenous women in San Cristobal de las Casas on International Women's Day, 1996.
136. Latinamerica Press, 20 January 1994, quote rephrased.
137. New York Times, 4 January 1994.
138. The Mexican government revealed his name in February 1995, hoping to undermine his incredible charismatic popularity, which seems not to have happened. New York Times, 11 February, 5 October 5, 1995; and Christian Science Monitor, 14 February 1995. Rafael Sebastián Guillén Vicente is variously described as 'a prize-winning sociology student', former professor of communications, son of a furniture salesman from Tampico, and comrade of the Sandinistas.
139. The Mexican government revealed his name in February 1995, hoping to undermine his incredible charismatic popularity, which seems not to have happened. New York Times, 11 February, 5 October 5, 1995; and Christian Science Monitor, 14 February 1995. Rafael Sebastián Guillén Vicente is variously described as 'a prize-winning sociology student', former professor of communications, son of a furniture salesman from Tampico, and comrade of the Sandinistas.
140. New York Times, 4, 9 January 1994.
141. According to the New York Times, 26 January 1994.
142. New York Times, 23 January 1994.
143. New York Times, 21 January 1994. It is worth noting that there are reports of local guerrilla insurgencies in 'a wide array of places', according to a personal communication from Eric Selbin, 6 May 1996.
144. On daily life in Mexico today, see Judith Adler Hellman, Mexican Lives, New York: New Press, 1994. On US support for the regime, see Jeff Garth & Elaine Sciolino, 'IMF head: he speaks, and money talks', New York Times, 2 April 1996.
145. On daily life in Mexico today, see Judith Adler Hellman, Mexican Lives, New York: New Press, 1994. On US support for the regime, see Jeff Garth & Elaine Sciolino, 'IMF head: he speaks, and money talks', New York Times, 2 April 1996.
146. All of these features of Boolean analysis are clearly explained in Charles C Ragin, The Comparative Method: Moving Beyond Qualitative and Quantitative Strategies, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1987.
147. Note the assumption in this kind of work that there may be multiple paths to the same outcome. A second assumption is that causality tends to be conjunctural; that is, that combinations of factors produce outcomes.
148. Or, as E P Thompson described England in 1831-32, 'within an ace of a revolution'. Thompson, The Making of the English Working Class, New York: Vintage, 1966 [1963]), p 817; see also pp 808-809.
149. For other analyses along somewhat similarly sceptical lines, see Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow & Charles Tilly, 'To map contentious polities', Mobilization, 1(1), 1996, pp 29-31; and Sidney Tarrow, 'Fishnets, internets, and catnets: globalization and transnational collective action', forthcoming in Michael Hanagan et al, The Past and Future of Collective Action.
150. For other analyses along somewhat similarly sceptical lines, see Doug McAdam, Sidney Tarrow & Charles Tilly, 'To map contentious polities', Mobilization, 1(1), 1996, pp 29-31; and Sidney Tarrow, 'Fishnets, internets, and catnets: globalization and transnational collective action', forthcoming in Michael Hanagan et al, The Past and Future of Collective Action.
151. Douglas Kellner, 'The end of orthodox Marxism', in Antonio Callari, Stephen Cullenberg & Carole Biewener (eds) Marxism in the Postmodern Age: Confronting the New World Order, New York: Guilford, 1995, p 40.