Going up-going down: How good are people at forecasting trends and changes in trends?

Journal of Forecasting

Volumn 16, Issue 3, 1997, Pages 165-176

  O'Connor, Marcus ^a   Remus, William ^b   Griggs, Ken ^b,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

Author keywords

Discontinuity; Judgemental forecasting; Trends

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001832515     PISSN: 02776693     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-131X(199705)16:3<165::AID-FOR653>3.0.CO;2-Y     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Armstrong, J. S., Long Range Forecasting: from Crystal Ball to Computer, New York: John Wiley, 1985.
2. Armstrong, J. S. and Collopy, F., 'Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: empirical comparisons', International Journal of Forecasting, 8 (1992), 69-80.
3. Armstrong, J. S. and Collopy, F., 'Prediction intervals in extrapolation of economic data: asymmetry due to error measures and contrary trends', paper presented at International Symposium on Forecasting, Istanbul, June 1996.
4. Bazerman, M., 'The relevance of Kahneman and Tversky's concept of framing to organisational behaviour', Journal of Management, 10 (1984), 333-43.
5. Carbone, R. and Makridakis, S., 'Forecasting when pattern changes occur beyond the historical data', Management Science, 32 (1986), 257-71.
6. Collyer, C., Stanley, K., and Bowater, C., 'Perceiving scattergrams: is visual line fitting related to estimation of the correlation co-efficient', Perceptual and Motor Skills, 71 (1990), 371-8.
7. Cyert, R., March, J., and Starbuck, W., 'Two experiments on bias and conflict in organisational estimation', Management Science, 1 (1961), 256-64.
8. Dalrymple, D. J., 'Sales forecasting practices: Results of a United States survey', International Journal of Forecasting, 3 (1987), 379-92.
9. Edmundson, R., A Computer Based Decision Aid for Forecasting Monthly Time Series, unpublished PhD dissertation, University of New South Wales, 1987.
10. Edmundson, R., 'Modelling and extrapolating of trend in judgemental time series forecasting', paper presented at International Symposium of Forecasting, Wellington, New Zealand, 1992.
11. Edmundson, R., Lawrence, M. J., and O'Connor, M. J., 'The use of non time series information in sales forecasting: a case study', Journal of Forecasting, 7 (1988), 201-11.
12. Gardner, E. and McKenzie, E., 'Forecasting trends in time series', Management Science, 31(10) (1985), 1237-46.
13. Harvey, N., 'Judgemental forecasting of univariate time series', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1 (1988), 95-110.
14. Hill, T., O'Connor, M., and Remus, W. E., 'Neural network models for time series forecasting', Management Science, 42 (1996), 1082-92.
15. Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A., 'Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk', Econometrica, 47 (1979), 263-91.
16. Klein, H. and Linneman, R., 'Environmental assessment: an international study of corporate practice', Journal of Business Strategy, 5 (1984), 66-84.
17. Langer, E. J., 'The illusion of control', Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32 (1975), 311-28.
18. Lawrence, M. J., 'An exploration of some practical issues in the use of quantitative forecasting models', Journal of Forecasting, 1 (1983), 169-79.
19. Lawrence, M. J. and Makridakis, S., 'Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 43 (1989), 172-87.
20. Lawrence, M. J., Edmundson, R. H., and O'Connor, M. J., 'An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series', International Journal of Forecasting, 1 (1985), 25-35.
21. Lawrence, M. J., Edmundson, R. H., and O'Connor, M. J., 'A field study of forecasting accuracy', Working Paper, University of New South Wales, 1995.
22. Makridakis, S., 'Accuracy measures: theoretical and practical concerns', International Journal of Forecasting, 9 (1993), 437-50.
23. Makridakis, S., Anderson, A., Carbone, E., Fildes, R., Hibon, M., Lewandowski, R., Newton, J., Parzen, E., and Winkler, R., 'The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition', Journal of Forecasting, 1 (1982), 1-153.
24. Mosteller, F., Siegel, A., Trapido, E., and Youtz, C., 'Eye fitting straight lines', The American Statistician, 35(3) (1981), 150-2.
25. O'Connor, M., Remus, W., and Griggs, K., 'Judgemental forecasting in times of change', International Journal of Forecasting, 9 (1993), 163-72.
26. Remus, W. E., O'Connor, M. J., and Griggs, K., 'Does reliable information improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasting?' International Journal of Forecasting, 11 (1995), 285-93.
27. Remus, W., O'Connor, M., and Griggs, K., 'The impact of information of unknown correctness on the judgemental forecasting process', Working Paper, University of Hawaii, 1996.
28. Sanders, N. and Manrodt, K., 'Forecasting practices in US corporations: survey results', Interfaces, 24 (1994), 92-110.
29. Sanders, N. and Ritzman, L., 'The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 5 (1992), 39-52.
30. Taranto, G. M., Sales Forecasting Practices: Results from an Australian Survey, unpublished thesis, University of New South Wales, 1989.
31. Thaler, R., 'Toward a positive theory of consumer choice', Journal of Economic Behaviour and Organisation, 1 (1980), 39-80.
32. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D., 'The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice', Science, 211 (1981), 453-8.
33. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D., 'Rational choice and the framing of decisions', Journal of Business, 59 (1986), 251-94.
34. Winton, E. and Edmundson, R., 'An examination of the judgmental identification and extrapolation of trend in time series', Working Paper, University of New South Wales, 1992.