Big decisions, big risks: Improving accountability in mega projects

International Review of Administrative Sciences

Volumn 64, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 423-440

  Bruzelius, Nils ^a   Flyvbjerg, Bent ^a   Rothengatter, Werner ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001665875     PISSN: 00208523     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/002085239806400306     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. The Danish Transport Council was set up by the Danish Parliament to improve the basis for Danish transport policy. The Council carries out independent studies of current transport issues and on this basis makes policy recommendations to the Danish Government and Parliament. The Baltic Sea link study was initiated by the Transport Council in 1994. The study team was comprised of the authors of this article assisted by Mette Skamris and Kim Lynge Nielsen; Bent Flyvbjerg headed the team. Full documentation of the study can be found in two reports published by the Danish Transport Council, both in English with extensive Danish, German and English summaries: Facts About Fehmarn Belt: Fact-Finding Study on a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt and Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995).
2. See Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability, Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 39-41; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990); Leonard Merewitz, Cost Overruns in Public Works, Reprint No. 114 (Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973); Peter W.G. Morris and George H. Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987); David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, 'Cost Overruns in Public Projects', International Journal of Project Management 3 (4, 1985).
3. See Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability, Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 39-41; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990); Leonard Merewitz, Cost Overruns in Public Works, Reprint No. 114 (Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973); Peter W.G. Morris and George H. Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987); David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, 'Cost Overruns in Public Projects', International Journal of Project Management 3 (4, 1985).
4. See Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability, Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 39-41; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990); Leonard Merewitz, Cost Overruns in Public Works, Reprint No. 114 (Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973); Peter W.G. Morris and George H. Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987); David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, 'Cost Overruns in Public Projects', International Journal of Project Management 3 (4, 1985).
5. See Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability, Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 39-41; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990); Leonard Merewitz, Cost Overruns in Public Works, Reprint No. 114 (Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973); Peter W.G. Morris and George H. Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987); David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, 'Cost Overruns in Public Projects', International Journal of Project Management 3 (4, 1985).
6. See Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability, Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 39-41; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990); Leonard Merewitz, Cost Overruns in Public Works, Reprint No. 114 (Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973); Peter W.G. Morris and George H. Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987); David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, 'Cost Overruns in Public Projects', International Journal of Project Management 3 (4, 1985).
7. See Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability, Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 39-41; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990); Leonard Merewitz, Cost Overruns in Public Works, Reprint No. 114 (Berkeley: Institute of Urban and Regional Development, University of California, 1973); Peter W.G. Morris and George H. Hough, The Anatomy of Major Projects: A Study of the Reality of Project Management (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1987); David Arditi, Guzin Tarim Akan and San Gurdamar, 'Cost Overruns in Public Projects', International Journal of Project Management 3 (4, 1985).
8. See Mette K. Skamris and Bent Flyvbjerg, 'Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates On Large Transportation Projects', in Transportation Research Board, National Research Council (ed.) Transportation Planning Applications. Transportation Research Record, No. 1518. (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996) pp. 65-9; Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 42-6; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); National Audit Office, Department of Transport, Scottish Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning (London: HMSO, 1988).
9. See Mette K. Skamris and Bent Flyvbjerg, 'Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates On Large Transportation Projects', in Transportation Research Board, National Research Council (ed.) Transportation Planning Applications. Transportation Research Record, No. 1518. (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996) pp. 65-9; Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 42-6; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); National Audit Office, Department of Transport, Scottish Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning (London: HMSO, 1988).
10. See Mette K. Skamris and Bent Flyvbjerg, 'Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates On Large Transportation Projects', in Transportation Research Board, National Research Council (ed.) Transportation Planning Applications. Transportation Research Record, No. 1518. (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996) pp. 65-9; Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 42-6; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); National Audit Office, Department of Transport, Scottish Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning (London: HMSO, 1988).
11. See Mette K. Skamris and Bent Flyvbjerg, 'Accuracy of Traffic Forecasts and Cost Estimates On Large Transportation Projects', in Transportation Research Board, National Research Council (ed.) Transportation Planning Applications. Transportation Research Record, No. 1518. (Washington, DC: National Academy Press, 1996) pp. 65-9; Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 42-6; Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); National Audit Office, Department of Transport, Scottish Department and Welsh Office: Road Planning (London: HMSO, 1988).
12. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 46-51; World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994): World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990).
13. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 46-51; World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994): World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990).
14. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 46-51; World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994): World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990).
15. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 46-51; World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994): World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990).
16. Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius and Werner Rothengatter, Fehmarn Belt: Issues of Accountability. Lessons and Recommendations Regarding Appraisal of a Fixed Link Across Fehmarn Belt, Report No. 95:03 (Copenhagen: The Danish Transport Council, 1995) pp. 46-51; World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994): World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1996); Don Pickrell, Urban Rail Transit Projects: Forecast Versus Actual Ridership and Cost (Washington, DC: US Department of Transportation, 1990); P.R. Fouracre, R.J. Allport and J.M. Thomson, The Performance and Impact of Rail Mass Transit in Developing Countries, TRRL Research Report 278 (Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1990).
17. World Bank, Economic Analysis of Projects: Towards a Results-oriented Approach to Evaluation, ECON Report (Washington, DC, World Bank, forthcoming) pp. 29-30.
18. Claus Hedegaard Sørensen; Slår bro fra kyst til kyst: en analyse af Socialdemokratiet og Øresundsforbindelsen (Århus: Hovedland, 1993),
19. and Gunnar Falkemark: Øresundsbron - Hur de avgörande besluten togs, Rapport (Gothenburg: Naturskyddsföreningen, 1992).
20. These and related issues are discussed in Joe B. Stevens, The Economics of Collective Choice (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1993).
21. See e.g. José A. Gómez-Ibáñez and John R. Meyer, Going Private: The International Experience with Transport Privatization (Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution, 1993).
22. The need for an economic regulatory regime will have to be reviewed carefully, as such controls often give rise to economic costs and may breed unexpected inefficiencies (Dieter Helm, 'British Utility Regulation: Theory, Practice, and Reform', Oxford Review of Economic Policy 10 (3, 1994): 17-39).
23. Barry Eichengreen, 'Financing Infrastructure in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Railway Age', Policy Research Working Paper, No. 1379 (Washington, DC: The World Bank, November 1994).
24. World Bank, World Development Report 1994: Infrastructure for Development (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994) pp. 91, 100.
25. In New Zealand, for example, it is government policy that state-owned enterprises must borrow on the commercial market and without a guarantee.
26. The Channel Tunnel, for instance, initially suffered from having construction interests too strongly involved in the management structure in relation to operations interests. See Tony Ridley, 'The Chunnel', Land and Infrastructure (Imperial College, London, undated); Major Projects Association, Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major Projects (Oxford: Major Projects Association, 1994).
27. The Channel Tunnel, for instance, initially suffered from having construction interests too strongly involved in the management structure in relation to operations interests. See Tony Ridley, 'The Chunnel', Land and Infrastructure (Imperial College, London, undated); Major Projects Association, Beyond 2000: A Source Book for Major Projects (Oxford: Major Projects Association, 1994).