Estimating the Size of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Complementary Use of the Empirical Bayesian Back-Calculation and the Mover-Stayer Model for Gathering the Largest Amount of Information

Simulation

Volumn 71, Issue 4, 1998, Pages 213-227

  Pasqualucci, Cristina ^a   Ravà, Lucilla ^a   Rossi, Carla ^a   Schinaia, Giuseppe ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ROME TOR VERGATA   (Italy)

^b SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

Author keywords

AIDS; Back Calculation method; dynamic models; Empirical Bayesian Back Calculation; epidemic; HIV; Italy; Mover Stayer model

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001415923     PISSN: 00375497     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/003754979807100402     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Longini, I.M. Jr., Clark, W.S., Haber, M., Horsburgh, C. R. Jr. “The Stages of HIV Infection: Waiting Times and Transmission Probabilities.” Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology, Castillo-Chavez, editor, Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 83, Springer Verlag, Berlin, pp 111-136, 1989.
2. Daar, E.S., Moudgil, T., Meyer, R.D., Ho, D.D. “Transient High Level of Viremia in Patients with Primary Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Infection.” New England Journal of Medicine, 324, pp 961-964, 1991.
3. Alcabes, P., Muñoz, A., Vlahov, D., Friedland, G.H. “Incubation Period of Human Immunodeficiency Virus.” Epidemiologic Reviews, 15, pp 303-318, 1993.
4. Hessol, N.A., Koblin, B.A., Van Griesven, G.J.P., et al. “Progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 (HIV-1) Infection among Homosexual Men in Hepatitis B Vaccine Trial Cohorts in Amsterdam, New York City and San Francisco 1978-1991.” American Journal of Epidemiology, 139, pp 1077-1087, 1994.
5. Buchbinder, S.P., Katz, M.H., Hessol, N.A., O'Malley, P.M., Holmberg, S.D. “Long-Term HIV-1 Infection without Immunologic Progression.” AIDS, 8, pp 1123-8, 1994.
6. Brookmeyer, R., Gail, H.G. “Minimum Size of the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) Epidemic in the United States.” Lancet, 2, pp 1320-1322, 1986.
7. Buehler, J.D., De Cock, K.M., Brunet, J.B. “Surveillance Definition for AIDS.” AIDS, 7, pp 73-81, 1993.
8. Arcà, M., Perucci, C., Spadea, T. “The Epidemic Dynamics of HIV-1 in Italy: Modeling the Interaction between Intravenous Drug Users and Heterosexual Population.” Statistics in Medicine, 11, pp 1657-1684, 1992.
9. Dietz, K. “On the Transmission Dynamics of HIV.” Mathematical Biosciences, 90, pp 397-414, 1988.
10. Hadeler, K.P. “Modeling AIDS in Structured Populations.” Proceedings of I.S.I. 47th Session, Paris, pp 83-99, 1989.
11. Kretzschmar, M., Dietz, K. “The Effect of Pair Formation and Variable Infectivity on the Spread of an Infection without Recovery.” Mathematical Biosciences (in press), 1998.
12. Jacquez, J.A., Simon, C.P., Koopman, J., Sattenspiel, L., Perry, T. “Modeling and Analyzing HIV Transmission: The Effect of Contact Patterns.” Mathematical Biosciences, 92, pp 119-199, 1988.
13. Thieme, H.R., Castillo-Chavez, C. “On the Role of Variable Infectivity in the Dynamics of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic.” Mathematical and Statistical Approaches to AIDS Epidemiology, Castillo-Chavez, editor, Lecture Notes in Biomathematics 83, Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1989.
14. Bailey, N.T.J. “An Improved Hybrid HIV/AIDS Model Geared to Specific Public Health Data and Decision Making.” Mathematical Biosciences, 107, 413-430, 1994.
15. Iannelli, M., Milner, F.A., Pugliese, A., Gonzo, M. “The HIV/ AIDS Epidemic among Drug Injectors: A Study of Contact Structure Through a Mathematical Model.” Mathematical Biosciences, 139, pp 25-58, 1997.
16. Hadeler, K.P., Dietz, K. “Epidemiological Models for Sexually Transmitted Diseases.” Journal of Mathematical Biology, 26, pp 1-25, 1988.
17. Kaplan, E.H. “Needles that Kill: Modeling HIV Transmission via Shared Drug Injection Equipment in Shooting Galleries.” Review of Infectious Diseases, 11, pp 289-298, 1989.
18. Kaplan, E.H., O'Keefe, E. “Let the Needles Do the Talking! Evaluating the New Haven Needle Exchange.” Interfaces, Vol. 23, No. 1, pp 7-26, 1993.
19. Rossi, C., Schinaia, G. “The Mover-Stayer Model for the HIV/ AIDS Epidemic in Action.” Interfaces, Vol.28, No.3, pp 127-143, 1998.
20. Rossi, C., Damiani, B., Pasqualucci, C. and Schinaia, G. “Short and Medium Term Projections of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Italy.” Proceedings of the XI International Conference on Mathematical and Computer Modelling and Scientific Computing, Washington, 1997.
21. Brookmeyer, R., Gail, H.G. “A Method for Obtaining Short-term Projections and Lower Bounds on the Size of the AIDS Epidemic.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, pp 301-308, 1988.
22. Rosenberg. P., Gail, M.H. “Backcalculation of Flexible Linear Models of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Curve.” Applied Statistics, 40, pp 269-282, 1991.
23. Brookmeyer, R. “Reconstruction and Future Trends of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States.” Science Articles, 37, pp 37-253, 1991.
24. Brookmeyer, R., Damiano, A. “Statistical Methods for Short-term Projections of AIDS Incidence.” Statistics in Medicine, 8, pp 23-34, 1989.
25. De Gruttola, V., Lagakos, S.W. “Analysis of Double-Censored Survival Data with Applications to AIDS.” Biometrics, 45, pp 1-11, 1989.
26. Rosenberg, P., Gail, M.H., Pee, D. “Mean Square Error Estimates of HIV Prevalence and Short-term AIDS Projections Derived by Back-Calculation.” Statistics in Medicine, 10, pp 1167-1180, 1991.
27. Taylor, J.N.G. “Models for the HIV Infection and AIDS Epidemic in the United States.” Statistics in Medicine, 8, pp 45-58, 1989.
28. Heisterkamp, S.H., Downs, A.M., Van Houweling, J.C. “Empirical Bayesian Estimators for Reconstruction of HIV Incidence and Prevalence and Forecasting of AIDS. I. Method of Estimation.” In Quantitative Analysis of HIV/AIDS: Development of Methods to Support Policy Making for Infectious Disease Control. PhD Thesis: University of Leiden, pp 65-98, 1995.
29. Brookmeyer, R., Liao, J. “Statistical Methods for Reconstructing Infection Curves.” AIDS Epidemiology: Methodological Issues, Jewell, Dietz, and Farewell, editors, pp 36-60, Birkauser, Boston, 1992.
30. Phillips, D. “A Technique for the Numerical Solution of Certain Integral Equations of the First Kind.” Association for Computing Machinery Journal, 9, pp 84-97, 1962.
31. Tikhonov, A. “Solution of Incorrectly Formulated Problems and the Regularization Method.” Soviet Mathematics, 5, pp 1035-1038, 1963.
32. MaWhinney, S., Pagano, M. “Backcalculation Using Regression Decomposition.” Statistics in Medicine, (in press), 1998.
33. Ravà, L. Proposta per un Metodo di Stima e Previsione della Curva di Infezione da HIV e di Incidenza di AIDS. PhD Thesis, Dipartimento di Statistica, Probabilità e Statistiche Applicate— Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza,” 1996.
34. Becker, N.G., Watson, L.F., Carlin, J.B. “A Method of Non-parametric Back-projection and its Application to AIDS Data.” Statistics in Medicine, 10, pp 1527-1542, 1991.
35. Heisterkamp, S., Jager, J.C., Ruitenberg, E.J., Van Druten, J.A.M., Downs, A.M. “Correcting Reported AIDS Incidence: a Statistical Approach.” Statistics in Medicine, 8, pp 963-976, 1989.
36. Pasqualucci, C., Ravà, L. “Empirical Bayesian Back-Calculation and Mover-Stayer Model: Two Methods to Study HIV/ AIDS Epidemic Trends. A Simulation Study Based on their Joint Use.” Proceedings of the Medical Sciences Simulation Conference, WMC 1988, San Diego, 1988.
37. Rossi, C. “A Stochastic Mover-Stayer Model for HIV Epidemic.” Mathematical Biosciences, 107, pp 521-545, 1991.
38. Brookmeyer, R., Gail, H.G., 1994. AIDS Epidemiology: a Quantitative Approach, Oxford University Press, 1994.
39. Brookmeyer, R., Goedert, J.J. “Censoring in an Epidemic with an Application to Hemophilia-Associated AIDS.” Biometrics, 45, pp 325-335, 1989.
40. Brookmeyer, R., Liao J. “ Statistical Modeling of the AIDS Epidemic for Forecasting Health Care Needs.” Biometrics, 46, pp 1151-1163, 1990.
41. Castillo-Chavez, C., Hethcote, H.W., Andreassen, V., Levin, S.A., Liu, W.M. “Epidemiological Models with Age-Structure, Proportionate Mixing and Cross-Immunity.” Journal of Mathematical Biology, 27, pp 233-258, 1989.
42. Downs, A.M., Heisterkamp, S.H., Brunet, J.B., Hamers, F.F. “Reconstruction and AIDS Prediction of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic Among Adults in the European Union and in Low Prevalence Countries of Central and Eastern Europe.” AIDS, 11, pp 649-662, 1997.
43. Gail, M.H., Rosenberg, P.S. “Perspectives on Using Back-Calculation to Estimate HIV Prevalence and Project AIDS Incidence.” AIDS Epidemiology: Methodological Issues, Jewell, Dietz and Farewell, editors, pp 1-35. Birkauser, Boston, 1992.
44. McLean, A.R., Blower, S.M. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Ser.B, 253, 9, 1993.
45. Mode, C.J., Gollwitzer, H.E., Herrmann, N. “A Methodological Study of a Stochastic Model of an AIDS Epidemic.” Mathematical Biosciences, 92, pp 201-229, 1988.
46. Rossi, C., Pasqualucci, C., Damiani, B., Ferracci, C., Ravà, L., Schinaia, G. “La Dimensione dell'Epidemia di AIDS in Italia.” Valutazione, Stima, ed. Analisi di Scenario PC-Based. Preprint for the Italian Consensus Conference on AIDS, Dipartimento di Matematica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Technical Report No. 13, 1997.