Neighborhood Effects on AFDC Exits: Examining the Social Isolation, Relative Deprivation, and Epidemic Theories

Social Service Review

Volumn 71, Issue 4, 1997, Pages 548-573

  Vartanian, Thomas P ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 0001369674     PISSN: 00377961     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1086/604278     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
2. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
3. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
4. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
5. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
6. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
7. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
8. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
9. For educational outcomes see Rebecca Clark, Neighborhood Effects on Dropping Out of School among Teenage Boys (Washington, D.C. : Urban Institute, 1992); Mary Corcoran, Roger Gordon, Deborah Laren, and Gary Solon, "The Association between Men's Economic Status and Their Family and Community Origins," Journal of Human Resources 27 (1992): 575-601; Jonathan Crane, "The Epidemic Theory of Ghettos and Neighborhood Effects of Dropping Out and Teenage Childbearing," American Sociological Review 96 (1991): 1226-59; Linda Dacher, "Effects of Community and Family Background on Achievement," Review of Economics and Statistics 64 (1982): 32-41; Donna Ginther, Robert Haveman, and Barbara Wolfe, Neighborhood Characteristics as Determinants of Children's Outcomes: How Robust Are the Relationships? (Madison: University of Wisconsin, 1993); Robert Plotnick and Saul Hoffman, Using Sister Pairs to Estimate How Neighborhoods Affect Young Adult Outcomes (Washington, D.C.: Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management, 1993). For teen births, drug use, and AFDC receipt, see Anne Case and Lawrence Katz, The Company You Keep: The Effects of Family and Neighborhoods on Disadvantaged Youth (Boston: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991); Paul Osterman, "Welfare Participation in a Full Employment Economy: The Impact of Neighborhoods," Social Problems 38 (1991): 475-91; Plotnick and Hoffman (ibid.).
10. See Clark (n. 1 above); Corcoran et al. (n. 1 above); Dacher (n. 1 above); and Ginther, Haveman, and Wolfe (n. 1 above).
11. Jeanne Brooks-Gunn, Greg Duncan, Pamela Klebanov, and Naomi Sealand, "Do Neighborhoods Influence Child and Adolescent Behavior?" American Journal of Sociology 99 (1993): 353-95; Plotnick and Hoffman (n. 1 above).
12. For school outcomes, see Crane (n. 1 above); and Plotnick and Hoffman (n. 1 above). For nonmarital births and criminal activity, see Case and Katz (n. 1 above).
13. Christopher Jencks and Susan Mayer, "The Social Consequences of Growing Up in a Poor Neighborhood," in Inner City Poverty in the United States, ed. Laurence Lynn, Jr., and Michael McGeary (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1990).
14. Ibid., pp. 113-18.
15. Ibid.; Crane (n. 1 above), pp. 1226-29.
16. Rebecca Blank, It Takes a Nation: A New Agenda for Fighting Poverty (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1997).
17. Jencks and Mayer (n. 5 above), p. 113.
18. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
19. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
20. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
21. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
22. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
23. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
24. Mary Jo Bane and David Ellwood, Beyond Welfare: From Rhetoric to Reform (Boston: Harvard University Press, 1994); Rebecca Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells," Journal of Public Economics 39 (1989): 245-73; David Ellwood, Targeting "Would-Be" Long-Term Recipients of AFDC (Princeton, N.J.: Mathematica Policy Research, 1986); John Fitzgerald, "The Effects of the Marriage Market and AFDC Benefits on Exit Rates from AFDC," Journal of Human Resources 26 (1991): 545-61; June O'Neill, Laurie Bassi, and Douglas Wolf, "The Duration of Welfare Spells," Review of Economics and Statistics 69 (1987): 241-48; Mark Rank and Thomas Hirschl, "A Rural-Urban Comparison of Welfare Exits: The Importance of Population Density," Rural Sociology 53 (1988): 190-206; Thomas Vartanian, Locational Effects and AFDC Exits: Examining Local Labor Markets (Bryn Mawr, Pa.: Bryn Mawr College, 1997).
25. John Fitzgerald, "Local Labor Markets and the Local Area Effects on Welfare Durations," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 14 (1995): 43-67; Vartanian (n. 10 above).
26. Vartanian (n. 10 above).
27. William Julius Wilson, The Truly Disadvantaged: The Inner City, the Underclass, and Public Policy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1987). Wilson defines "marriageable" males as steadily employed males.
28. Ibid.
29. Vartanian (n. 10 above).
30. It is nationally representative when weights are used. The study oversampled poor households.
31. A "minor civil division" is a legal subdivision of a county, usually a township or a city. An "enumeration district" is similar to a census tract but is located in rural areas. See Terry K. Adams, Documentation for 1970 and 1980 Census Extract Datasets (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan, July 1991).
32. Bane and Ellwood (n. 10 above).
33. Because the PSID does not distinguish who in the household receives the AFDC income, it would be impossible to identify the AFDC recipient if there were more than a single family living in the household. For example, the head of the household may be a grandmother whose daughter is receiving AFDC. If the above rules were not used, the grandmother would mistakenly be counted as the individual receiving the AFDC income. See Bane and Ellwood (n. 10 above), p. 167. "Other welfare" was also included as AFDC income if the female head of household had a year of AFDC receipt because it has been found that some PSID respondents misreported AFDC income as "other welfare" income.
34. It should be noted that the PSID is a yearly longitudinal data set while AFDC payments are determined on a monthly basis. Using the PSID smooths out the actual dynamics of AFDC receipt because some AFDC recipients in the PSID will go on and off AFDC during what is coded as a year of AFDC receipt. Thus, the data may overestimate the actual length of time that PSID respondents spend on AFDC. Estimates using monthly data indicate that the mean length of time on welfare is estimated to be far shorter than when examining yearly data. For example, see Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above), who found the mean length of welfare spells using monthly data to be 3.1 years, while Ellwood (n. 10 above), using PSID data, found the mean length of AFDC spells to be 4.4 years. Therefore, estimates of time on welfare should be viewed with caution. However, the yearly data give a good estimate of long-term reliance on AFDC by excluding short periods of time off AFDC. Only the first observed spell for each AFDC recipient is examined to maintain the independence of observations (see Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" [n. 10 above]; and Paul Allison, Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data [Beverly Hills and London: Sage Publications, 1984]).
35. It should be noted that the PSID is a yearly longitudinal data set while AFDC payments are determined on a monthly basis. Using the PSID smooths out the actual dynamics of AFDC receipt because some AFDC recipients in the PSID will go on and off AFDC during what is coded as a year of AFDC receipt. Thus, the data may overestimate the actual length of time that PSID respondents spend on AFDC. Estimates using monthly data indicate that the mean length of time on welfare is estimated to be far shorter than when examining yearly data. For example, see Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above), who found the mean length of welfare spells using monthly data to be 3.1 years, while Ellwood (n. 10 above), using PSID data, found the mean length of AFDC spells to be 4.4 years. Therefore, estimates of time on welfare should be viewed with caution. However, the yearly data give a good estimate of long-term reliance on AFDC by excluding short periods of time off AFDC. Only the first observed spell for each AFDC recipient is examined to maintain the independence of observations (see Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" [n. 10 above]; and Paul Allison, Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data [Beverly Hills and London: Sage Publications, 1984]).
36. It should be noted that the PSID is a yearly longitudinal data set while AFDC payments are determined on a monthly basis. Using the PSID smooths out the actual dynamics of AFDC receipt because some AFDC recipients in the PSID will go on and off AFDC during what is coded as a year of AFDC receipt. Thus, the data may overestimate the actual length of time that PSID respondents spend on AFDC. Estimates using monthly data indicate that the mean length of time on welfare is estimated to be far shorter than when examining yearly data. For example, see Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above), who found the mean length of welfare spells using monthly data to be 3.1 years, while Ellwood (n. 10 above), using PSID data, found the mean length of AFDC spells to be 4.4 years. Therefore, estimates of time on welfare should be viewed with caution. However, the yearly data give a good estimate of long-term reliance on AFDC by excluding short periods of time off AFDC. Only the first observed spell for each AFDC recipient is examined to maintain the independence of observations (see Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" [n. 10 above]; and Paul Allison, Event History Analysis: Regression for Longitudinal Event Data [Beverly Hills and London: Sage Publications, 1984]).
37. Exits other than those due to marriage or increased earnings include having no more children under the age of 18 living in the household and moving to a state in which AFDC payments are too low for a given amount of income to continue to receive AFDC income.
38. Because the PSID only reports on labor income of the head of household, and because the woman who leaves AFDC may no longer be the head of household, hours of work were also examined for those leaving AFDC. Hours of work are reported for each individual within the PSID.
39. Brooks-Gunn et al. (n. 3 above); Clark (n. 1 above); Crane (n. 1 above); Ginther, Haveman, and Wolfe (n. 1 above).
40. Crane (n. 1 above); Jencks and Mayer (n. 5 above); Plotnick and Hoffman (n. 1 above). Each of the neighborhood variables was also entered logarithmically and was found to have similar effects as the linear specifications. See Plotnick and Hoffman (n. 1 above).
41. Because AFDC recipients tend to live in poorer neighborhoods than the general population, it is assumed that the neighborhood conditions do not have to be exceptionally bad for AFDC recipients to suffer from epidemic effects. Thus, AFDC recipients may suffer from epidemic effects when they live in the worst 50 percent of neighborhoods.
42. For black-white differences, see Brooks-Gunn et al. (n. 3 above). For educational differences, see Vartanian (n. 10 above). Likelihood-ratio tests indicate that the coefficient estimates for African Americans and non-African Americans as well as for high school dropouts and graduates differ from each other at the 1 percent level of significance.
43. In results not shown, a final step to control for unobserved heterogeneity was used. In these models, a nonparametric functional form was used to control for unobserved heterogeneity, and a Weibull distribution was used for the hazard rate in order to determine if unobserved heterogeneity was causing coefficient estimates to be biased. Using a variety of support points and probability estimates for these support points, the coefficient estimates for the neighborhood variables used in the models did not show large changes when controls for unobserved heterogeneity were introduced. Similar results were found by Fitzgerald, "Local Labor Markets and the Local Area Effects on Welfare Durations" (n. 11 above).
44. Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above); C. J. Flinn and James Heckman, "Model for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," Advances in Econometrics 1 (1982): 35-92; James Heckman and Burton Singer, "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica 52 (1984): 271-320.
45. Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above); C. J. Flinn and James Heckman, "Model for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," Advances in Econometrics 1 (1982): 35-92; James Heckman and Burton Singer, "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica 52 (1984): 271-320.
46. Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above); C. J. Flinn and James Heckman, "Model for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," Advances in Econometrics 1 (1982): 35-92; James Heckman and Burton Singer, "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica 52 (1984): 271-320.
47. The results for this analysis were robust to changes in the definitions for these different areas. For example, increasing large cities to a minimum of 750,000 slightly increased the level of significance for the large city coefficient but did little to the coefficient estimates for neighborhood variables.
48. Marginal information costs for job searches may be lower for those with a car because they may be able to search for jobs over a larger area in a shorter period of time than those without cars. In other words, those with cars may be able to get more job-related information with the same effort than those without cars. This lower cost of information for those with cars will depend on factors such as the availability and cost of parking and mass transit.
49. The OBRA in 1981 changed AFDC rules and increased the effective tax rate on AFDC earnings from 67 percent to 100 percent (after allowances).
50. The exponential distribution assumes that the hazard rate is constant. Other distributions were also used, such as the Weibull and log-logistic, to determine whether these distributional assumptions affect the coefficients and standard errors within the models. With few exceptions, the significant coefficients are robust to these different distributional assumptions.
51. Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" (n. 10 above).
52. There is right-censoring when the sampling period ends and the AFDC spell is still in progress. Left-censoring occurs when the AFDC spell is in progress when the sampling period begins. Like most other studies of AFDC spells (Bane and Ellwood [n. 10 above]; O'Neill, Bassi, and Wolf [n. 10 above]; and Blank, "Analyzing the Length of Welfare Spells" [n. 10 above], left-censored cases are excluded from the study. Left-censoring should not be a major problem for this study because 18 years of data are available and only a small percentage of AFDC beginnings are excluded by left-censoring (12%). In studies in which a larger percentage of spells are left-censored, excluding these cases may create a bias selection problem.
53. Different means and standard deviations are used for each of the groups.
54. Slopes were also determined in a piecewise linear hazard model to determine the pattern of neighborhood effects across each of the six levels. For the epidemic theory to have credence, these slopes should be relatively large and negative for the worst neighborhoods. Neither of the neighborhood indexes showed signs of the epidemic model in any of the exit models examined.
55. Vartanian (n. 10 above).
56. In each of the 10 models (including the two principal components models) for earnings exits for high school dropouts, all coefficients for the large city variable remained significant at the 1 percent level or lower.
57. Susan Popkin, James Rosenbaum, and Patricia Meaden, "Labor Market Experi-ences of Low-Income Black Women in Middle Class Suburbs: Evidence from a Survey of Gautreaux Program Participants," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 12 (1993): 556-73.