메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 59, Issue 3, 2001, Pages 281-311

Predictable changes in yields and forward rates

Author keywords

Affine models; E43; Expectations hypothesis; Forecasting; G12; Pricing kernels; Term premiums

Indexed keywords


EID: 0001353110     PISSN: 0304405X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00088-X     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (46)

References (41)
  • 1
    • 0001758906 scopus 로고
    • Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation
    • Andrews D. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix estimation. Econometrica. 59:1991;817-858.
    • (1991) Econometrica , vol.59 , pp. 817-858
    • Andrews, D.1
  • 2
    • 0041375681 scopus 로고
    • Bond pricing in discrete time
    • New York University, July
    • Backus, D., 1993. Bond pricing in discrete time. Unpublished Working Paper, New York University, July.
    • (1993) Unpublished Working Paper
    • Backus, D.1
  • 3
    • 0001261043 scopus 로고
    • Risk premiums in the term structure: Evidence from artificial economies
    • Backus D., Gregory A., Zin S. Risk premiums in the term structure: evidence from artificial economies. Journal of Monetary Economics. 24:1988;371-399.
    • (1988) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.24 , pp. 371-399
    • Backus, D.1    Gregory, A.2    Zin, S.3
  • 4
    • 85000284647 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates
    • Bekaert G., Hodrick R., Marshall D. On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Financial Economics. 43:1997;29-77.
    • (1997) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.43 , pp. 29-77
    • Bekaert, G.1    Hodrick, R.2    Marshall, D.3
  • 5
    • 0009904860 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • "peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies
    • August
    • Bekaert, G., Hodrick, R., Marshall, D., 1997b. "Peso problem" explanations for term structure anomalies. NBER Working Paper No. 6147, August.
    • (1997) NBER Working Paper , vol.6147
    • Bekaert, G.1    Hodrick, R.2    Marshall, D.3
  • 6
    • 0039613660 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diversification, integration and emerging market closed-end funds
    • Bekaert G., Urias M. Diversification, integration and emerging market closed-end funds. Journal of Finance. 51:1996;835-869.
    • (1996) Journal of Finance , vol.51 , pp. 835-869
    • Bekaert, G.1    Urias, M.2
  • 10
    • 84959821636 scopus 로고
    • Yield spreads and interest rate movements: A bird's eye view.
    • Campbell J., Shiller R. Yield spreads and interest rate movements: a bird's eye view. Review of Economic Studies. 58:1991;495-514.
    • (1991) Review of Economic Studies , vol.58 , pp. 495-514
    • Campbell, J.1    Shiller, R.2
  • 11
    • 0001854590 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation for a multifactor equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates
    • Chen R.-R., Scott L. Maximum likelihood estimation for a multifactor equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Fixed Income. 3:1993;14-31.
    • (1993) Journal of Fixed Income , vol.3 , pp. 14-31
    • Chen, R.-R.1    Scott, L.2
  • 12
    • 0001205798 scopus 로고
    • A theory of the term structure of interest rates
    • Cox J., Ingersoll J., Ross S. A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica. 53:1985;385-407.
    • (1985) Econometrica , vol.53 , pp. 385-407
    • Cox, J.1    Ingersoll, J.2    Ross, S.3
  • 13
    • 0008766361 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Specification analysis of affine term structure models
    • forthcoming
    • Dai, Q., Singleton, K., 2000. Specification analysis of affine term structure models. Journal of Finance 55, forthcoming.
    • (2000) Journal of Finance , vol.55
    • Dai, Q.1    Singleton, K.2
  • 14
    • 0030305091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A yield-factor model of interest rates
    • Duffie D., Kan R. A yield-factor model of interest rates. Mathematical Finance. 6:1996;379-406.
    • (1996) Mathematical Finance , vol.6 , pp. 379-406
    • Duffie, D.1    Kan, R.2
  • 15
    • 0006069985 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An econometric model of the term structure of interest rate swap yields
    • Duffie D., Singleton K. An econometric model of the term structure of interest rate swap yields. Journal of Finance. 52:1997;1287-1321.
    • (1997) Journal of Finance , vol.52 , pp. 1287-1321
    • Duffie, D.1    Singleton, K.2
  • 16
    • 0010590729 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long forward and zero-coupon rates can never fall
    • early versions of this paper were in circulation by 1987
    • Dybvig, P., Ingersoll, J., Ross, S., 1996. Long forward and zero-coupon rates can never fall. Journal of Business 69, 1-25; early versions of this paper were in circulation by 1987.
    • (1996) Journal of Business , vol.69 , pp. 1-25
    • Dybvig, P.1    Ingersoll, J.2    Ross, S.3
  • 17
    • 0040588370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tax and liquidity effects in pricing government bonds
    • Elton E.J., Green T.C. Tax and liquidity effects in pricing government bonds. Journal of Finance. 53:1998;1533-1562.
    • (1998) Journal of Finance , vol.53 , pp. 1533-1562
    • Elton, E.J.1    Green, T.C.2
  • 18
    • 38149144734 scopus 로고
    • Do stationary risk premia explain it all? evidence from the term structure
    • Evans M., Lewis K. Do stationary risk premia explain it all? evidence from the term structure. Journal of Monetary Economics. 33:1994;285-318.
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 285-318
    • Evans, M.1    Lewis, K.2
  • 19
    • 0000911048 scopus 로고
    • The information in the term structure
    • Fama E. The information in the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics. 13:1984;509-528.
    • (1984) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.13 , pp. 509-528
    • Fama, E.1
  • 20
    • 0000064728 scopus 로고
    • The information in long-maturity forward rates
    • Fama E., Bliss R. The information in long-maturity forward rates. American Economic Review. 77:1987;680-692.
    • (1987) American Economic Review , vol.77 , pp. 680-692
    • Fama, E.1    Bliss, R.2
  • 23
    • 0040317421 scopus 로고
    • Modes of fluctuation in bond yields
    • Bankers Trust June;
    • Garbade, K., 1986. Modes of fluctuation in bond yields. Topics in Money and Securities Markets No. 20, Bankers Trust, June; reprinted in Garbade, K., 1996. Fixed Income Analytics. MIT Press, Cambridge.
    • (1986) Topics in Money and Securities Markets , vol.20
    • Garbade, K.1
  • 24
    • 0009138342 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • reprinted in MIT Press, Cambridge
    • Garbade, K., 1986. Modes of fluctuation in bond yields. Topics in Money and Securities Markets No. 20, Bankers Trust, June; reprinted in Garbade, K., 1996. Fixed Income Analytics. MIT Press, Cambridge.
    • (1996) Fixed Income Analytics
    • Garbade, K.1
  • 25
    • 10444264776 scopus 로고
    • A test of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross model of the term structure
    • Gibbons M., Ramaswamy K. A test of the Cox, Ingersoll, Ross model of the term structure. Review of Financial Studies. 6:1993;619-658.
    • (1993) Review of Financial Studies , vol.6 , pp. 619-658
    • Gibbons, M.1    Ramaswamy, K.2
  • 26
    • 43949152349 scopus 로고
    • The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries
    • Hardouvelis G. The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries. Journal of Monetary Economics. 33:1994;255-283.
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 255-283
    • Hardouvelis, G.1
  • 27
    • 0000789996 scopus 로고
    • Dividend yields and expected stock returns: Alternative procedures for inference and measurement
    • Hodrick R. Dividend yields and expected stock returns: alternative procedures for inference and measurement. Review of Financial Studies. 5:1992;357-386.
    • (1992) Review of Financial Studies , vol.5 , pp. 357-386
    • Hodrick, R.1
  • 30
    • 0000807650 scopus 로고
    • The tax-adjusted yield curve
    • McCulloch J.H. The tax-adjusted yield curve. Journal of Finance. 30:1975;811-830.
    • (1975) Journal of Finance , vol.30 , pp. 811-830
    • McCulloch, J.H.1
  • 32
    • 84986348750 scopus 로고
    • The information in the term structure: Some further results
    • Mishkin F. The information in the term structure: some further results. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 3:1988;307-314.
    • (1988) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.3 , pp. 307-314
    • Mishkin, F.1
  • 33
    • 0001491925 scopus 로고
    • Parsimonious modeling of yield curves
    • Nelson J., Siegel A. Parsimonious modeling of yield curves. Journal of Business. 60:1987;473-489.
    • (1987) Journal of Business , vol.60 , pp. 473-489
    • Nelson, J.1    Siegel, A.2
  • 34
    • 84993661234 scopus 로고
    • Exploiting the conditional density in estimating the term structure: An application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model
    • Pearson N., Sun T.-S. Exploiting the conditional density in estimating the term structure: an application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model. Journal of Finance. 54:1994;1279-1304.
    • (1994) Journal of Finance , vol.54 , pp. 1279-1304
    • Pearson, N.1    Sun, T.-S.2
  • 35
    • 0033473745 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile
    • Roberds W., Whiteman C. Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: explaining the predictability smile. Journal of Monetary Economics. 44:1999;555-580.
    • (1999) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.44 , pp. 555-580
    • Roberds, W.1    Whiteman, C.2
  • 38
    • 38249032278 scopus 로고
    • The information in forward rates: Implications for models of the term structure
    • Stambaugh R. The information in forward rates: implications for models of the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics. 21:1988;41-70.
    • (1988) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.21 , pp. 41-70
    • Stambaugh, R.1
  • 39
    • 21144470575 scopus 로고
    • Real and nominal interest rates: A discrete-time model and its continuous-time limit
    • Sun T.-S. Real and nominal interest rates: a discrete-time model and its continuous-time limit. Review of Financial Studies. 5:1992;581-611.
    • (1992) Review of Financial Studies , vol.5 , pp. 581-611
    • Sun, T.-S.1
  • 40
    • 0000735116 scopus 로고
    • Statistical properties of GMM estimators of structural parameters obtained from financial market data
    • Tauchen G. Statistical properties of GMM estimators of structural parameters obtained from financial market data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 4:1986;397-416.
    • (1986) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.4 , pp. 397-416
    • Tauchen, G.1
  • 41
    • 0347078538 scopus 로고
    • An equilibrium characterization of the term structure
    • Vasicek O. An equilibrium characterization of the term structure. Journal of Financial Economics. 5:1977;177-188.
    • (1977) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.5 , pp. 177-188
    • Vasicek, O.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.