Do subjects understand base rates?

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes

Volumn 72, Issue 1, 1997, Pages 25-61

  Kleiter, Gernot D ^a   Krebs, Marianne ^a   Doherty, Michael E ^b   Garavan, Hugh ^b   Chadwick, Randall ^b   Brake, Gregory ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SALZBURG   (Austria)

^b NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001095020     PISSN: 07495978     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1006/obhd.1997.2727     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Anderson R. J. The adaptive character of thought. 1990;Erlbaum, Hllsdale.
2. Anderson R. J. The adaptive nature of human categorization. Psychological Review. 98:1991;409-429.
3. Anderson R. M., Donelly C. A., Ferguson N. M., Woolhouse M. E. J., Watt C. J., Udy H. J., Mawhinney S., Dunstan S. P., Southwood T. R. E., Wilesmith J. W., Ryan J. B. M., Hoinville L. J., Hillerton J. E., Austin A. R., Wells G. A. H. Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature. 382:1996;779-788.
4. Bar-Hillel M. The base rate fallacy in probability judgments. Acta Psychologica. 44:1980;211-213.
5. Bar-Hillel M. The base rate fallacy controversy. Decision making under uncertainty. 1982;Elsevier, Amsterdam. p. 39-61.
6. Bar-Hillel M. Back to base rates. Hogarth R. M. Insights in decision making. 1990;200-216 University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
7. Bernardo J. M., Smith A. F. M. Bayesian theory. 1994;Wiley, New York.
8. Billman D. O., Heit E. Observational learning from internal feedback: A simulation of an adaptive learning method. Cognitive Science. 12:1988;587-625.
9. Bishop Y. M. M., Fienberg S. E., Holland P. W. Discrete multivariate analysis: Theory and practice. 1975;MIT Press, Cambridge.
10. Cacciabue P. C., Papazoglou I. A. Probabilistic safety assessment and management. 1996;Springer, London/Berlin.
11. Christensen-Szalanski J. J. J., Bushyhead J. B. Physician's use of probabilistic information in a real clinical setting. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance. 7:1981;928-935.
12. Cohen L. J. Can human irrationality be experimentally demonstrated? The Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 4:1981;317-370.
13. Cooksey R. Judgment analysis: Theory, methods and applications. 1996;Academic Press, San Diego.
14. Cosmides L., Tooby J. Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cognition. 58:1996;1-73.
15. De Finetti B. Theory of probability. 1974;Wiley, London.
16. Dempster A. P., Laird N. M., Rubin D. B. Maximum likelihood estimation from incomplete data via the EM Algorithm (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. B39:1977;1-38.
17. Doherty M. E., Chadwick R., Garavan H., Barr D., Mynatt C. R. On people's understanding of the diagnostic implications of probabilistic data. Memory and Cognition. 24:1996;644-654.
18. Doherty M. E., Mynatt C. R. Inattention toPHPDH. Acta Psychologica. 75:1990;1-11.
19. Doherty M. E., Schiavo M. D., Tweney R. D., Mynatt C. Pseudodiagnosticity. Acta Psychologica. 43:1979;111-121.
20. Ericsson K. A., Simon H. A. Protocol Analysis: Verbal Reports as Data. 1993;MIT Press, Cambridge.
21. Evans J. St. B. T., Over D. E. Rationality and reasoning. 1996;Psychology Press, Hove.
22. Fischhoff B., Bar-Hillel M. Diagnosticity and base-rate effect. Memory and Cognition. 12:1984;402-410.
23. Gigerenzer G. How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond 'heuristics and biases'. European Review of Social Psychology. 2:1991;83-115.
24. Gigerenzer G. On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review. 103:1996;592-596.
25. Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U. How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychological Review. 102:1995;684-704.
26. Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., Kleinbölting H. Probabilistic mental models. A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review. 98:1991;506-528.
27. Horn L. R. A natural history of negation. 1989;University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
28. Johnson-Laird P. N., Legrenzi P., Girotto V., Legrenzi M. S., Caverni J.-P. Naive probabilistic reasoning: A mental model theory. 1996;Department of Psychology, Princeton University, NJ 08544.
29. Kahneman D., Slovic P., Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. 1982;Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
30. Kahneman D., Tversky A. Subjective Probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology. 3:1972;430-454.
31. Kahneman D., Tversky A. On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review. 80:1973;237-251.
32. Kahneman D., Tversky A. On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review. 103:1996;582-591.
33. Kareev Y. Positive bias in the perception of covariation. Psychological Review. 102:1995;490-502.
34. Kleiter G. D. Bayes Statistik. 1981;De Gruyter, Berlin/New York.
35. Kleiter G. D. Incomplete knowledge. Its representation in psychology and artificial intelligence. Klix F., Roth E. Kognitive Prozesse und geistige Leistung. 1991;106-147 Deutscher Verlag der Wissenschaften, Berlin.
36. Kleiter G. D. Bayesian diagnosis by expert systems. Artificial Intelligence. 54:1992;1-32.
37. Kleiter D. D. Natural sampling: rationality without base rates. Fischer G. H., Laming D. Contributions to mathematical psychology, psychometrics, and methodology. 1994;375-388 Springer, New York.
38. Kleiter G. D. Critical and natural sensitivity to base rates. Commentary to a target paper by J. J. Koehler. Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 19:1996;27-29.
39. Kleiter G. D., Kardinal M. A Bayesian approach to imprecision in belief nets. Mammitzsch V., Schneeweiß H. Symposia Gaussiana, Conf. B. 1995;91-105 de Gruyter, Berlin.
40. Koehler J. J. The base rate fallacy reconsidered: descriptive, normative and methodological challenges. Behavioral and Brain Sciences. 19:1996;1-53.
41. Kornblith H. Inductive inference and its natural ground. 1993;MIT Press, Cambridge.
42. Legrenzi P., Girotto V., Johnson-Laird P. N. Focussing in reasoning and decision making. Cognition. 49:1993;37-66.
43. Little R. J. A., Rubin D. B. Statistical analysis with missing data. 1987;Wiley, New York.
44. Lynch J. G. Jr., Ofir C. Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 56:1989;170-181.
45. Novick M. R., Jackson P. H. Statistical methods for educational and psychological research. 1974;McGraw-Hill, New York.
46. Ofir C. Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertainty. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 42:1988;343-363.
47. Pasini M., Kleiter G. La base rate fallacy nella categorizzazione di eventi sequenziali. Giornalc Italiano di Psicologia. 22:1995;641-661.
48. Sedlmeier P., Gigerenzer G. Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours. 1995;University of Paderborn, Fachbereich 2, Psychologie, Paderborn.
49. Simon H. The logic of decision making. Rescher N. The logic of decision and action. 1967;1-20 University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh.
50. Slovic P., Lichtenstein S. Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organizational behavior and human performance. 6:1971;649-744.
51. Smith E. E., Langston C., Nisbett R. E. The case for rules in reasoning. Cognitive Science. 16:1992;1-40.
52. Sperber D., Cara F., Girotto V. Relevance theory explains the selection task. Cognition. 57:1995;31-95.
53. Spiegelhalter D., Thomas A., Best N., Gilks W. BUGS. Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling. 1995;MRC Biostatistics Unit, Inst. of Public Health, Cambridge.
54. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science. 185:1974;1124-1131.
55. Tversky A., Kahneman D. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review. 90:1983;293-315.