A Case Study of Stochastic Optimization in Health Policy: Problem Formulation and Preliminary Results

Journal of Global Optimization

Volumn 18, Issue 4, 2000, Pages 399-416

  Draper, David ^a   Fouskakis, Dimitris ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BATH   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bayesian decision theory; Cross validation; Genetic algorithm; Input output analysis; Logistic regression; Maximization of expected utility; Messy simulated annealing; Monte Carlo methods; Prediction; Quality of health care; Sickness at hospital admission

Indexed keywords

EID: 0001069865     PISSN: 09255001     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1023/A:1026504402220     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Bernardo, J.M. and Smith, A.F.M. (1994), Bayesian Theory. New York: Wiley.
2. Daley, J., Jencks, S., Draper, D., Lenhart, G., Thomas, N. and Walker, J. (1988), Predicting hospital-associated mortality for Medicare patients with stroke, pneumonia, acute myocardial infarction, and congestive heart failure. Journal of the American Medical Association 260: 3617-3624.
3. Donabedian, A. (1981), Advantages and limitations of explicit criteria for assessing the quality of health care. Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly - Health and Society 59: 99-106.
4. Draper, D. (1995), Inference and hierarchical modeling in the social sciences (with discussion). Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics 20: 115-147, 233-239.
5. Draper, D., Kahn, K., Reinisch, E., Sherwood, M., Carney, M., Kosecoff, J., Keeler, E., Rogers, W., Savitt, H., Allen, H., Wells, K., Reboussin, D. and Brook, R. (1990). Studying the effects of the DRG-based Prospective Payment System on Quality of Care: Design, sampling, and fieldwork. Journal of the American Medical Association 264: 1956-1961.
6. Dueck, G. and Scheuer, T. (1990). Threshold acceptance: A general purpose optimization algorithm appearing superior to simulated annealing. Journal of Computational Physics 90: 161-175.
7. Glover, F. (1989), Tabu search - Part I. ORSA Journal on Computing 1: 190-206.
8. Goldstein, H. and Spiegelhalter, D.J. (1996), League tables and their limitations: Statistical issues in comparisons of institutional performance (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A 159: 385-444.
9. Hadorn, D., Draper, D., Rogers, W., Keeler, E. and Brook, R. (1992), Cross-validation performance of patient mortality prediction models. Statistics in Medicine 11: 475-489.
10. Holland, J.H. (1975), Adaptation in natural and artificial systems. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
11. Hosmer, D.W. and Lemeshow, S. (1989), Applied Logistic Regression. New York: Wiley.
12. Jencks, S., Daley, J., Draper, D., Thomas, N., Lenhart, G. and Walker, J. (1988), Interpreting hospital mortality data: The role of clinical risk adjustment. Journal of the American Medical Association 260: 3611-3616.
13. Kahn, K., Brook, R., Draper, D., Keeler, E., Rubenstein, L., Rogers, W. and Kosecoff, J. (1988), Interpreting hospital mortality data: How can we proceed? Journal of the American Medical Association 260: 3625-3628.
14. Kahn, K., Rogers, W., Rubenstein, L., Sherwood, M., Reinisch, E., Keeler, E., Draper, D., Kosecoff, J. and Brook, R. (1990), Measuring quality of care with explicit process criteria before and after implementation of the DRG-based Prospective Payment System. Journal of the American Medical Association 264: 1969-1973.
15. Kahn, K., Rubenstein, L., Draper, D., Kosecoff, J., Rogers, W., Keeler, E. and Brook, R. (1990), The effects of the DRG-based Prospective Payment System on quality of care for hospitalized Medicare patients: An introduction to the series. Journal of the American Medical Association 264: 1953-1955 (with editorial comment, 1995-1997).
16. Keeler, E., Kahn, K., Draper, D., Rogers, W., Sherwood, M., Rubenstein, L., Reinisch, E., Kosecoff, J. and Brook, R. (1990), Changes in sickness at admission following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System. Journal of the American Medical Association 264: 1962-1968.
17. Kirkpatrick, S., Gelatt, C.D. and Vecchi, M.P. (1983). Optimization by simulated annealing. Science 220: 671-680.
18. Knaus, W.A., Draper, E.A., Wagner, D.P. and Zimmerman, J.E. (1985). APACHE II: A severity of disease classification system for severely ill patients. Critical Care Medicine, 13: 818-829.
19. Knuth, D.E. (1968), The Art of Computer Programming. Volume 1: Fundamental Algorithms. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
20. Kvasnička, V. and Pospíchal, J. (1995), Messy simulated annealing. Journal of Chemometrics, 9: 309-322.
21. Lindley, D.V. (1968), The choice of variables in multiple regression (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 30: 31-66.
22. Stander, J. and Silverman, B.W. (1994), Temperature schedules for simulated annealing. Statistics and Computing 4: 21-32.
23. Tukey, J.W (1977), Exploratory Data Analysis. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
24. Weisberg, S. (1985), Applied Linear Regression, second edition. New York: Wiley.