Labor force projections to 2010: Steady growth and changing composition

Monthly Labor Review

Volumn 124, Issue 11, 2001, Pages 21-38

  Fullerton Jr , Howard N ^a   Toossi, Mitra ^a  

^a NONE

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EID: 0000628462     PISSN: 00981818     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
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References (17)

1. The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Population Survey, conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The projections in this issue were completed prior to the tragic events of September 11, 2001. BLS will continue to review its projections and as long-term consequences of September 11 become clearer will incorporate these effects in subsequent releases of the labor force outlook.
2. This projection replaces that described in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "The labor force: steady growth, changing composition," Monthly Labor Review, November 1999, pp. 19-32. For further labor force projection data, see http://stats.bls.gov/emplab1.htm.
3. Projections of labor force participation rates for each group are developed by first estimating a trend rate of change, usually based on participation rate behavior during the prior 8-year period. Second, the rate is modified when the time-series projections for the specific group appear inconsistent with the results of cross-sectional and cohort analyses. This second step ensures consistency in the projections across the various demographic groups. For further information, see Handbook of Methods, "Employment Projections" (Washington, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1999), Chapter 13, available on the Internet at http://stats.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch13_a.htm.
4. Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan, "Population Projections of the United States, 1999 to 2100: Methodology and Assumptions" Working Paper No. 38 (U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1999).
5. For a discussion of migration theories, see Douglass S. Massey, Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J. Edward Taylor, "Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal," Population and Development Review, September 1993, pp. 431-66.
6. See Richard A. Ippolito, "Toward Explaining Early Retirement After 1970," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, July 1990, pp. 556-69. Also, see the discussion and tables in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Labor force participation: 75 years of change, 1950-98 and 1998-2025," Monthly Labor Review, December 1999, pp 3-12 , Arlene Dohm, "Gauging the labor force effects of retiring baby-boomers," Monthly Labor Review, July 2000; pp. 17-25, and William J. Wiatrowski, "Changing retirement age: ups and downs," Monthly Labor Review, April 2001, pp. 3-12.
7. See Richard A. Ippolito, "Toward Explaining Early Retirement After 1970," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, July 1990, pp. 556-69. Also, see the discussion and tables in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Labor force participation: 75 years of change, 1950-98 and 1998-2025," Monthly Labor Review, December 1999, pp 3-12 , Arlene Dohm, "Gauging the labor force effects of retiring baby-boomers," Monthly Labor Review, July 2000; pp. 17-25, and William J. Wiatrowski, "Changing retirement age: ups and downs," Monthly Labor Review, April 2001, pp. 3-12.
8. See Richard A. Ippolito, "Toward Explaining Early Retirement After 1970," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, July 1990, pp. 556-69. Also, see the discussion and tables in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Labor force participation: 75 years of change, 1950-98 and 1998-2025," Monthly Labor Review, December 1999, pp 3-12 , Arlene Dohm, "Gauging the labor force effects of retiring baby-boomers," Monthly Labor Review, July 2000; pp. 17-25, and William J. Wiatrowski, "Changing retirement age: ups and downs," Monthly Labor Review, April 2001, pp. 3-12.
9. See Richard A. Ippolito, "Toward Explaining Early Retirement After 1970," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, July 1990, pp. 556-69. Also, see the discussion and tables in Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Labor force participation: 75 years of change, 1950-98 and 1998-2025," Monthly Labor Review, December 1999, pp 3-12 , Arlene Dohm, "Gauging the labor force effects of retiring baby-boomers," Monthly Labor Review, July 2000; pp. 17-25, and William J. Wiatrowski, "Changing retirement age: ups and downs," Monthly Labor Review, April 2001, pp. 3-12.
10. The analysis is complicated by the redesign of the Current Population Survey implemented in 1994. The survey is now counting more older women and men in the labor force due to the improved questionnaire design.
11. See Diane E. Herz, "Work after early retirement: An increasing trend among men," Monthly Labor Review, April 1995, pp. 13-20.
12. While it is impossible for everyone to experience higher rates of return than average all the time, some workers do experience above average rates of return on their defined contribution benefit pensions. Some of these workers retire early, and others decide to continue working to add more funds to their account and further increase their retirement income.
13. Normal Retirement Age, Social Security Administration, December 4, 2000, on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/ProgData/nra.html (visited Dec. 20, 2000).
14. See "The President Signs the 'Senior Citizens' Freedom to Work Act of 2000,'" Social Security Legislative Bulletin number 106-20, April 7, 2000, on the Social Security Internet site at http://www.ssa.gov/legislation/legis_bulletin_040700.html (visited Nov. 13, 2001).
15. See Howard V. Hayghe, "Are women leaving the labor force?" Monthly Labor Review, July 1994, pp. 37-39.
16. For the most recent evaluation of BLS labor force projections, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "An evaluation of labor force projections to 1995," Monthly Labor Review, September 1997, pp. 5-9.
17. Entrants and leavers are computed by comparing the labor force numbers for birth cohorts at two points in time. If the labor force numbers at the second point are larger, the difference is termed "the entrants." If the labor force numbers at the second point are smaller, the difference is the leavers. These concepts understate the numbers likely to enter and leave the labor force over the period covered by the two points in time, but are still a valid comparison. As with measures of geographic mobility, which also do not measure all the changes over a period, we do not call these net entrants and leavers. For a further discussion of the methods, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., "Measuring Rates of Labor Force Dynamics," Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1993.