A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the aids epidemic

Journal of the American Statistical Association

Volumn 83, Issue 402, 1988, Pages 301-308

  Brookmeyer, Ron ^a   Gail, Mitchell H ^b  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE   (United States)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Infectious diseases; Multinomial distribution

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000611151     PISSN: 01621459     EISSN: 1537274X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1988.10478599     Document Type: Article

References (19)

1. Abramowitz, M., and Stegun, I. (1970), Handbook of Mathematical Functions With Formulas, Graphs and Mathematical Tables (Applied Mathematics Series), Washington, DC: National Bureau of Standards.
2. Bailey, N. (1975), The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases, New York: Hafner Press.
3. Bishop, Y. M., Fienberg, S. E., and Holland P. W. (1975), Discrete Multivariate Analysis: Theory and Practice, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
4. Brookmeyer, R., and Gail, M. (1986), “The Minimum Size of the AIDS Epidemic in the United States,” Lancet, 2, 1320–1322.
5. Centers for Disease Control (1987), “Revision of the CDC Surveillance Case Definition for Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome,” Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, 36, 3–15.
6. Coffin, J., Haase, A., Levy, J., Montagnier, L., Oroszlan, S., Teich, N., Temin, H., Toyoshima, K., Varmus, H., Vogt, P., and Weiss, R. (1986), “Human Immunodeficiency Viruses,” Science, 232, 697.
7. Cox, D. R., and Hinkley, D. V. (1974), Theoretical Statistics, London: Chapman & Hall.
8. Cox, D. R., and Isham, V. (1980), Point Processes, London: Chapman & Hall.
9. Curran, J. W., Morgan, M. W., Hardy, A. M., Jaffe, H. W., Darrow, W. W., and Dowdle, W. R. (1985), “The Epidemiology of AIDS: Current Status and Future Prospects,” Science, 229, 1352–1357.
10. Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M., and Rubin, D. B. (1977), “Maximum Likelihood From Incomplete Data Via the EM Algorithm,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B, 39, 1–22.
11. Hessol, N., Rutherford, G. W., O’Malley, P. M., Doll, L. S., Darrow, W. W., and Jaffe, H. W. (1987), “The Natural History of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in a Cohort of Homosexual and Bisexual Men,” Abstract M.3.1, Third International Conference on AIDS, Washington, D.C.
12. Jaffe, H. W., Darrow, W. W., Echenberg, D. F., O’Malley, P., Getchell, J., Kalyanaraman, V., Byers, R., Drennan, D., Braff, E., Curran, J., and Francis, D. (1985), “The Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome in a Cohort of Homosexual Men: A Six Year Follow-up Study,” Annals of Internal Medicine, 103, 210–214.
13. Lui, K. J., Lawrence, D. N., Morgan, W. M., Peterman, T. A., Haverkos, H. W., and Bregman, D. J. (1986), “A Model-based Approach for Estimating the Mean Incubation Period of Transfusion-associated Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 83, 3051–3055.
14. McEvoy, M., and Tillet, H. E. (1985), “Some Problems in the Prediction of Future Numbers of Cases of the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome in the U.K.,” Lancet, 2, 541–542.
15. McMahan, C., Maxwell, L., and Shepherd, A. (1986), “Estimation of the Distribution of Blood Vessel Diameters From the Arteriovenous Passage of Microspheres,” Biometrics, 42, 371–380.
16. Melbye, M., Goedert, J., and Blattner, W. (1987), “The Natural History of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection,” in Current Topics in AIDS (Vol. 1), eds. M. Gottlieb, D. Jeffries, D. Mildevan, A. Pinching, T. Quinn, and R. Weiss, London: John Wiley, pp. 57–93.
17. Mendelsohn, J., and Rice, J. (1982), “Deconvolution of Micro Fluorometric Histograms With B Splines,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77, 748–753.
18. Morgan, W. M., and Curran, J. W. (1986), “Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome: Current and Future Trends,” Public Health Reports, 101, 459–464.
19. Sanathanan, L. (1972), “Estimating the Size of a Multinomial Population,” Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 43, 142–152.