Of time and candidates: A forecast for 1996

American Politics Research

Volumn 24, Issue 4, 1996, Pages 443-467

  Norpoth, Helmut ^a  

^a STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0000000584     PISSN: 1532673X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/1532673X9602400404     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Abramowitz, Alan I. 1988. An improved model for predicting presidential election outcomes. PS: Political Science and Politics 21:843-7.
2. Beck, Nathaniel. 1992. Forecasting the 1992 presidential election: The message is in the confidence interval. Public Perspective 3:32-4.
3. Box, George E. P., and Gwilym Jenkins. 1976. Time series analysis. Rev. ed. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
4. Brody, Richard, and Lee Sigelman. 1983. Presidential popularity and presidential elections: An update and extension. Public Opinion Quarterly 47:325-8.
5. Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American voter. New York: John Wiley.
6. Campbell, James E. 1992. Forecasting the presidential vote in the states. American Journal of Political Science 36:385-407.
7. Campbell, James E., and Kenneth A. Wink. 1990. Trial-heat forecasts of the presidential vote. American Politics Quarterly 18:251-69.
8. Chappell, Henry W., and William R. Keech. 1985. A new view of political accountability for economic performance. American Political Science Review 79:10-27.
9. Clarke, Harold D., and Marianne C. Stewart. 1994. Prospections, retrospections and rationality: The "bankers'" model of presidential approval reconsidered. American Journal of Political Science 38:1104-23.
10. Congressional Quarterly. 1994. CQ guide to U.S. elections. 3d ed. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
11. Dickey, David A., William R. Bell, and Robert B. Miller. 1986. Unit roots in time series models: Tests and implications. The American Statistician 40:12-27.
12. Downs, Anthony. 1972. Up and down with ecology: The "issue-attention-cycle." Public Interest 28:38-50.
13. Erikson, Robert S. 1989. Economic conditions and the presidential vote. American Political Science Review 83:567-73.
14. Fair, Ray C. 1978. The effect of economic events on votes for president. The Review of Economics and Statistics 60:159-73.
15. Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective voting in American national elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
16. Gallup Poll Monthly, November 1992.
17. Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. 1993. Why are American presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable? British Journal of Political Science 23:409-51.
18. Granger, C.W.J. 1989. Forecasting in business and economics. Boston: Academic Press.
19. Haller, H. Brandon, and Helmut Norpoth. 1994. Let the good times roll: The economic expectations of U.S. voters. American Journal of Political Science 38:625-50.
20. Hershey, Robert D., Jr. 1996. Growth spurted in the spring; easing is seen. The New York Times, 2 August:D1-D4.
21. Katona, George. 1975. Psychological economics. New York: Elsevier.
22. Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics & micropolitics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
23. Kramer, Gerald H. 1971. Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896-1964. American Political Science Review 65:131-43.
24. Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1988. Economics & elections. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
25. Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Tom Rice. 1992. Forecasting elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly.
26. Lynch, G. Patrick, and Michael Munger. 1994. Economic fluctuations and presidential elections from 1872 to 1988: Were voters retrospective? Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April, Chicago, IL.
27. MacKuen, Michael B., Robert S. Erikson, and James A. Stimson. 1992. Peasants or bankers: The American electorate and the U.S. economy. American Political Science Review 86:597-611.
28. Midlarsky, Manus I. 1984. Political stability of two-party and multiparty systems: Probabilistic bases for the comparison of party systems. American Political Science Review 78:929-51.
29. Mueller, John E. 1973. War, presidents and public opinion. New York: John Wiley.
30. Norpoth, Helmut. 1985. Politics, economics and the cycle of presidential popularity. In Economic conditions and electoral outcomes, edited by H. Eulau and M. Lewis-Beck, 167-86. New York: Agathon.
31. _. 1995. Is Clinton doomed? An early forecast for 1996. PS: Political Science and Politics 28:201-7.
32. _. 1996. Presidents and the prospective voter. Journal of Politics 58:776-92.
33. Norpoth, Helmut, Michael S. Lewis-Beck, and Jean-Dominique Lafay. 1991. Economics and politics: The calculus of support. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
34. Rosenstone, Steven J. 1983. Forecasting presidential elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
35. Sanders, David. 1996. Economic performance, management competence and the outcome of the next general election. Political Studies 44:203-31.
36. Stokes, Donald E., and Gudmund R. Iversen. 1966. On the existence of forces restoring party competition. In Elections and the political order, edited by Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. New York: John Wiley.
37. Survey Research Center. 1994. Surveys of consumers. Historical data. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan.
38. Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political control of the economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
39. U.S. Department of Commerce. 1996. Survey of current business (May). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.